• Peter Waweru’s company Mobimart spent years supplying Kenyan oilseeds to Italian energy major Eni, which refined them into SAF in Sicily before shipping the finished fuel back to Kenya at six times the cost. When Kenya Airways asked Eni to build a SAF plant in Kenya instead, Eni declined. So the airline turned to Waweru instead.

• That’s the origin of Bleriot Group, which is now developing Kenya’s first domestic SAF production capability using the HEFA pathway, with Kenya Airways as its anchor customer.

• Waweru’s feedstock strategy is built around farmer economics. It includes the African spider plant, cotton seed, and croton from existing forests.

• Instead of a $500 million conventional refinery, Bleriot is developing small units costing $5 million each, producing 10 tonnes of SAF per day. The target is 10 units by 2030. The technology has also attracted interest from smaller European airlines that can’t access SAF through existing supply chains.

• Bleriot will start with biodiesel for road transport, where the economics are already compelling, then scale into SAF. This mirrors the route Brazil used to build its biofuels industry over five decades.

• The technology and feedstock is in hand, a bigger challenge will be to fund large-scale energy agriculture on arid and semi-arid land, which requires development finance that commercial capital alone won’t provide.

For several years, Peter Waweru’s company Mobimart International did what many African commodity businesses do. It aggregated oilseeds across Kenya’s arid counties, crushed them at facilities in Kwale, and shipped the crude vegetable oil to Europe for refining.

The principal buyer was Eni, the Italian energy major, which sent the oil to its biorefinery in Gela, Sicily. There, among other products, it was converted into Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).

Some of that was shipped back to Kenya.

In 2023, when Kenya Airways operated its first SAF-powered long-haul flight, the first by any African carrier, the fuel had been refined by Eni in Italy. But the feedstocks came from Kenya. By the time the finished product returned to Nairobi, the cost represented a six fold premium over standard Jet A.

It was, as Wakina Mutembei of Kenya Airways later described at the SAF Investor London conference, one of the absurdities of the current SAF market.

This led to a conversation between Peter Waweru and the airline.

Before coming to Waweru, Eni had been asked the same question. Could they build a local SAF plant in Kenya?

Waweru says the energy giant declined. “They would never build that.”

The reason is structural, and is based on a business model designed to move raw materials in one direction: from countries like Kenya to the company’s multi-billion dollar European refining infrastructure. (Note: Eni’s Kenyan biofuel operations have also recently faced scrutiny over its smallholder farming programme, though the company says it complies with EU laws.)

What followed was the formation of Bleriot Group, with Waweru as Group Chairman providing the feedstock expertise, land access, and government relationships, and Serguei Poppeleer as CEO bringing the fuel production and chemical engineering capability.

The ambition was to build Kenya’s, and potentially Africa’s, first domestically produced end to end SAF supply chain.

The feedstock: designed around farmer economics

Instead of the conversion technology, Waweru’s SAF model starts with the farmer. His view is that unless smallholders on arid Kenyan land see immediate returns, no refinery technology will create a sustainable supply chain.

As a result, his feedstock portfolio is sequenced by how quickly different crops generate returns:

1. African spider plant: food first, fuel second

The shortest-cycle crop in Bleriot’s portfolio rarely features in global SAF discussions.

African spider plant (Cleome gynandra), indigenous to sub-Saharan Africa, is widely eaten as a leafy vegetable. The edible leaves can be harvested within weeks, giving the farmer early food and income. The seeds, which mature later once the pods have dried, contain 17-19% oil. That’s modest by oilseed standards, but the food comes first and the fuel feedstock is a by-product. That then builds into a wider feedstock strategy.

2. Cotton seed: the industrial-scale play

Waweru’s longer-term top pick for SAF feedstock at volume is cotton seed. Kenya’s cotton industry once operated at significant capacity but today functions at roughly 10% of its 1970s levels.

The infrastructure such as gins, cooperatives, extension programmes, still exists in skeletal form. Kenyan President William Ruto is already pushing for a cotton revival. And the economics have a structural advantage: the oilseed component represents approximately 60% of the cotton boll, and in Kenya, cotton seed oil is not edible. Before biofuels, there was simply no market for it.

3. Croton: the carbon play

Then there is croton, a species that already exists in Kenyan forests whose seeds can be collected without new planting. Its role in Waweru’s model is about carbon sequestration as well as oil supply.

And the food-versus-fuel safeguards?

Waweru emphasises crops that serve both food and fuel purposes simultaneously (e.g. African spider plant), as well as a heavy reliance on arid and semi-arid land where there is no competition with food production. In addition, he points to species like castor that rehabilitate degraded former mining land by detoxifying the soil until it can revert to agricultural use. He further proposes a policy principle whereby no more than 10% of any individual farmer’s land should be allocated to fuel crops.

Small modular reactors: $5 million versus $500 million

The conversion technology itself centres on what Waweru calls small modular reactors (SMR)*.

*Note: he does not mean this in the nuclear energy sense where the term ‘SMR’ is commonly used, but in compact HEFA processing units capable of producing up to 10 metric tonnes of SAF per day.

A single SMR unit will cost approximately $5 million. Compare this to a conventional SAF refinery (Waweru cited Topsoe’s plant in Rotterdam as an example) which runs to $2 billion. Even a more modest facility requires $500 million or more.

His target is initially 10 units by 2030, producing a combined 100 metric tonnes per day or roughly 36,500 tonnes per year. Bleriot has identified two potential manufacturers, one in China and one in South Africa, and is working to bring the first units to deployment.

Units can be sited near airport fuel infrastructure, reducing the need for a SAF blending and pipeline network that Kenya currently lacks entirely. Or they can be placed near feedstock production areas, minimising the logistics cost of transporting raw materials. The decision, Waweru says, will be situational.

Waweru even sees a technological export opportunity. Smaller European airlines, he argues, are struggling to access SAF through the existing supply chains, which are dominated by partnerships between major refiners (Topsoe, Neste) and oil marketing companies supplying the continent’s larger carriers. Regional airlines face mandates but have a narrower route to compliance.

So his proposition is as follows: Use African-developed feedstock, processed through modular technology, deployed at or near the airports where smaller carriers need it.

Road transport first, then aviation: the Brazilian model

Kenya’s new petroleum legislation is expected to mandate a 20% biodiesel blend for road transport. The economics make sense: diesel in Kenya currently costs 206 Kenyan shillings per litre (~$1.60), while the cost of producing biodiesel is around 140 shillings (~$1.08), leaving a margin of approximately 65 shillings (~$0.50) per litre.

“It’s tempting, it’s juicy,” Waweru says. “So we grab the low-hanging fruit first, because we have energy deficiency and energy insecurity in road transport. And it’s for real.”

The feedstock for biodiesel and SAF is the same. Only the processing differs, with biodiesel using the fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) route, while SAF requires the additional step of hydroprocessing via the HEFA pathway. Road transport builds the farmer supply chains, stabilises Bleriot’s revenue, and creates the feedstock volumes that make the jump to SAF economically viable.

This is in fact the model Brazil has been using.

Brazil is the world’s second-largest ethanol producer and third-largest biodiesel producer, built over decades of supportive policy and a vast agricultural sector. Its road transport biofuels industry, which is anchored by sugarcane ethanol and soybean biodiesel, created the feedstock supply chains, farmer participation, and processing infrastructure that are now being leveraged for aviation fuel.

Brazil’s Fuel of the Future law, enacted in 2024, established progressive SAF mandates starting at a 1% emissions reduction, rising to 10% by 2037. According to BloombergNEF, announced projects could bring Brazil’s SAF production capacity to roughly 700 million litres by 2030. Critically, the two most promising Brazilian SAF pathways, HEFA from soybean oil and alcohol-to-jet (AtJ) from sugarcane ethanol, are both built on feedstock supply chains that existed at industrial scale because of the road transport market.

A B10 biodiesel mandate in Kenya, Waweru estimates, would require nearly one million acres of dedicated biofuel crop production, creating eight to ten million jobs across farming, logistics, and processing. At that scale, feedstock prices fall, supply chains mature, and SAF production becomes commercially viable rather than aspirational.

AFRY reports that HEFA SAF production in Brazil could be 10% cheaper than in Central Europe, driven by large quantities of soybean production and its lower land and labour costs. Kenya’s numbers are smaller and its infrastructure more nascent. But the model of abundant land and feedstock is the same.

Why bio-SAF, not e-fuels

One pathway Waweru rules out is power-to-liquid e-fuels, for economic and social reasons.

He is not the only African SAF developer to reach this conclusion. In our recent feature on Sunbird Group’s cassava-to-SAF project in Ethiopia, founder Richard Bennett made a similar argument in choosing the AtJ pathway partly because the agricultural model creates thousands of smallholder farming livelihoods.

E-fuels may well be the right answer for the Gulf states, where cheap solar energy, port infrastructure, and smaller populations make capital-intensive, low-employment industrial projects viable.

But African developers are working with abundant land, feedstock, and large rural populations that need agricultural employment. A biofuel supply chain built around smallholder agriculture creates economic participation at scale.

The road ahead

Bleriot is currently at the bench and laboratory stage. Through partnerships with the University of Nairobi and Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, the company has developed proprietary HEFA processing IP and produced SAF tested to ASTM D7566 standards.

SAF produced by Bleriot was used to fuel Kenya Airways demonstration flights in October 2025, including four return services from Nairobi to Paris, Amsterdam, London, and Cape Town using a 2% SAF blend.

Now comes the jump to commercial production. A second-generation reactor is now under development, and Bleriot has identified SMR manufacturers. Securing the necessary capital will require support from development finance institutions, as Waweru argues that commercial investors alone are unlikely to absorb the combined agricultural and technology risks at this stage.

While the financing question is real, the broader picture looks more encouraging:

• A supportive government: The policy environment is moving in the right direction. Kenya’s technical committee on SAF comprising the Civil Aviation Authority, Kenya Pipeline Company, and producers including Bleriot, is actively working toward a blending mandate. Waweru sits on that committee. The backdrop is a government that understands what domestic biofuel production could mean for energy security and employment.

• Physical fuel, not certificates: Waweru sees himself as building a fuel and not a certificates business. Unlike other producers, the strategy does not rest on book-and-claim. Instead, Bleriot will produce the SAF, supply it to Kenya Airways, and let them on-sell to partners, in particular drawing on their SkyTeam relationships.

• A model that scales: Looking at the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), countries like Ethiopia and Mozambique could contribute feedstock to centralised processing in Kenya. But the SMR technology is designed to be deployed anywhere. If a $5 million modular unit can produce 10 tonnes of SAF per day from locally grown oilseeds, there is no reason it couldn’t operate at an airport in Addis Ababa, Maputo, or Dar es Salaam just as well as in Nairobi.

Whether Bleriot reaches 100 tonnes per day by 2030 remains to be seen. But the logic that Africa should process its own feedstock rather than export it, is becoming harder to argue against.

Industry Updates

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• EU releases NEATS platform to track aviation’s full climate impact - Open Access

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• EU court set to rule on business aviation’s sustainability status - AIN

Business aviation has challenged its exclusion from the EU’s green investment taxonomy, arguing the Commission’s reasoning is discriminatory and threatens decarbonisation funding for the sector.

• United bet $1 billion on air taxis, now Scott Kirby says they should not fly near major airports - View from the Wing

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• Scandinavian Airlines warns Europe risks future fuel shock without e‑SAF drive - AeroTime

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Infrastructure and operational efficiencies

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BAE Systems has opened a major expansion of its New York campus to develop high-voltage energy storage for hybrid and electric aircraft, boosting manufacturing capacity for cleaner propulsion.

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A California-based company has been selected to supply ocean-captured CO2 for a French e-SAF plant, which will produce 75,000 tonnes of fuel annually with an 90% emission reduction.

• Clean Planet’s non-recyclable plastics to SAF pilot facility opens in the UK - GreenAir News

A first-of-its-kind UK pilot facility has opened in Kent, converting non-recyclable waste plastics into sustainable aviation fuel using a patented process that cuts lifecycle emissions by over 70%.

• Hong Kong and Dongguan launch HK$10 billion sustainable aviation fuel project - Macao News

Hong Kong and Dongguan have partnered on a HK$10 billion biofuel base to produce 450,000 tonnes of SAF annually from waste cooking oil, strengthening the Greater Bay Area’s green aviation chain.

• Sasol achieves sustainability certification for renewable diesel, SAF - Biodiesel Magazine

Sasol has achieved Africa’s first ISCC+ certification for SAF and renewable diesel production at its Natref refinery, marking a major shift from ambition to delivery in sustainable fuels.

• International collaboration formed to develop ethanol and SAF project in Uzbekistan - GreenAir News

An international consortium has signed a deal to build Uzbekistan’s first ethanol-to-SAF plant, converting industrial off-gases into 80,000 tons of fuel per year using LanzaTech’s technology.

• Qatar backs sustainable jet fuel project in Egypt - Yahoo

QNB Group has agreed to finance an Egyptian SAF plant capable of producing 200,000 tonnes of biofuel annually, with Shell committed to buying its entire output once operational.

• GPS Renewables launches India’s first ethanol-to-jet SAF project - Manufacturing Today

GPS Renewables has been awarded the contract for India’s first ethanol-to-jet SAF plant at NTPC Green Energy Limited’s Green Hydrogen Hub, which is designed to produce 1,800 tonnes per year using Lummus Technology’s licensed process.

New technology: Electric and Hydrogen

• Hydrogen aircraft to enter service by 2030 - Fuel Cells Works

H2Fly’s co-founder has predicted that hydrogen-electric propulsion systems of up to 500 kilowatts could enter production by 2030, though financial market stability remains critical for investment.

• Joby flies electric air taxi from JFK to Manhattan in seven minutes as FAA certification nears - TNW

Joby Aviation has completed New York City’s first point-to-point eVTOL demonstration flights, flying from JFK to Midtown in seven minutes, though the economics of air taxi travel remain unproven.

• easyJet and Rolls-Royce successfully test hydrogen powered aircraft engine - AvioRadar

easyJet and Rolls-Royce have successfully tested a modern aircraft engine running on 100% hydrogen at full take-off power, marking a significant step towards zero-emission narrowbody propulsion.

• Hydrogen Utopia unveils Fortress Fuel project launch - Fuel Cells Works

Hydrogen Utopia International has launched Project Fortress Fuel to convert waste plastic into military-grade JP-8 fuel at forward bases, reducing reliance on vulnerable supply chains.

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• Sustaera has developed a Direct Air Capture (DAC) system that uses direct electrical heating rather than steam to release captured CO2.

• The company claims this approach can achieve three to five times lower capital costs than existing DAC technologies, with 90%+ heating efficiency compared to roughly 40% for conventional thermal systems.

• Combined with a sorbent material that costs less than $10 per kilogram (compared to thousands of dollars per kilogram for competitors), CTO Cory Sanderson says the company sees a credible path to sub-$100 per tonne carbon removal by the early 2030s.

• Sustaera plans to build a commercial pilot in North America next year, with Stripe and Shopify as early credit buyers.

• For aviation, Sustaera positions itself as a potential CO2 feedstock provider for synthetic jet fuel production, and as a source of DAC-backed carbon removal credits that offer the permanence and measurability that traditional offsets have failed to deliver

North Carolina-based Sustaera has developed a Direct Air Capture (DAC) system that it says can remove CO2 from the atmosphere at three to five times lower capital cost than existing technologies.

If those numbers hold at scale, Sustaera believes it has a path to sub-$100 per tonne carbon removal, the threshold widely regarded as the point where DAC becomes commercially viable. The company is backed by Breakthrough Energy Ventures, the US Department of Energy, and the XPRIZE for Carbon Removal, and has existing credit contracts with Stripe and Shopify.

This comes as the wider DAC industry is under scrutiny for its cost projections. But in an interview with Sustainability in the Air, CTO and co-founder Cory Sanderson made the case that Sustaera’s advantage comes not from a single lab breakthrough, but from an engineering approach shaped by his 12 years building industrial-scale gas separation plants at carbon capture company Air Products.

“You need to go and find the market and the problem first and then develop the product and the solution that goes for that,” Sanderson said. “That’s the approach that we took.”

The electric jacket

Most solid sorbent DAC systems use steam heat to release captured CO2 from the sorbent material.

“This is almost like putting a jacket around you that has a little electric heater, and that’s just heating you,” Sanderson explained. “You’re not heating the whole home.”

In technical terms, Sustaera’s sorbent and its electrical heating element are in close contact. Power goes in, the sorbent heats up almost instantaneously, CO2 is released, and the system swings back. The surrounding gas barely rises in temperature.

Sustaera claims this approach achieves heating efficiency of 90%+ compared to around 40% for conventional thermal systems.

An important distinction: that 90% figure refers specifically to the conversion of electricity to heat at the sorbent, not to total system energy consumption per tonne of CO2.

A cheaper sorbent

The material that actually grabs CO2 from the air is often the most expensive component in a DAC system. Sustaera uses an amino acid salt, a different class of sorbent from what others in the industry employ.

The amino acid salt has the amine group that attracts CO2 at low concentrations, but it is tethered to a different chemical group that gives it greater durability, meaning it can withstand more heating cycles before degrading.

“We can get years’ worth of our sorbent in operation before we recommend refurbishing it,” Sanderson said. Refurbishment is a simple washing and recoating process using widely available materials.

The $100 question

The sub-$100 per tonne figure has been the DAC industry’s stated goal for years. Few companies in this sector have detailed a credible path to get there.

Sanderson believes Sustaera’s combination of lower capital costs, from combining the adsorption and desorption systems into a single unit, and lower operating costs from electric heating puts the company on that path.

Sanderson’s timeline is to reach sub-$100 per tonne within five years, at a scale of 50,000 to 100,000 tonnes of CO2 removal, achievable after building and iterating on a few modular units.

The behind-the-meter play

One of the more interesting elements of Sustaera’s strategy is how it plans to access cheap power.

Because the system is all-electric and can start up in minutes, it does not need baseload power. It can run on intermittent renewable energy, solar, wind, or a combination, connecting directly behind the meter at a generation site.

In the US and globally, there are massive queues for renewable energy projects waiting for grid interconnection. Those projects generate power but cannot yet sell it to the grid.

The modular design makes this work. A facility contains multiple separation units that can be turned on individually. If only a fraction of the available power is flowing, only a fraction of the units run. There is no penalty for stopping and starting.

What it means for aviation

Sustaera’s first market will be permanent carbon removal through sequestration, working with technology-agnostic project developers like Deep Sky. The company already has carbon removal credit contracts with Stripe and Shopify, and plans to build a commercial pilot in North America with operations beginning in 2027.

“We are a feedstock provider,” Sanderson said. “Anyone that’s interested, we’re happy to have those conversations.”

DAC-backed credits also offer airlines something traditional offsets have failed to deliver: permanence and measurability. Sanderson acknowledged that DAC credits will initially cost more than forestry-based offsets. But he argued the certainty is worth the premium.

“DAC is a known, measurable thing that we will be able to show and prove,” he said. “This is exactly how much was taken out.”

What to watch

Two things to watch as the company moves toward its commercial pilot.

• First, the total system energy figure. The 90%+ heating efficiency is meaningful but measures only one part of the process.

• Second, the sub-$100 pathway depends on cheap renewable power, sorbent durability over years of operation, and the modular units performing as expected in real-world conditions.

Sanderson’s industrial background, Sustaera’s engineering-first approach, and the behind-the-meter model are worth taking seriously. But the question, as always is whether the projections survive contact with reality.

The 2027 pilot will be the first genuine test.

• Ethiopia has banned petrol and diesel car imports, registered over 115,000 EVs, and is bringing Africa’s largest hydropower dam online. Now it wants to apply the same energy independence logic to aviation fuel.

• UK developer Sunbird Group, which has spent 13 years building bioenergy projects in Africa, has signed an MOU with Ethiopian government partners to produce bioethanol and then SAF via the Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) pathway.

• The feedstock is cassava, an industrial crop in Ethiopia that doesn’t compete with food production and works for smallholder farmers, creating thousands of rural jobs rather than a handful of plant positions.

• Sunbird’s CEO Richard Bennett estimates AtJ-produced SAF from Ethiopian cassava could undercut current HEFA prices.

• The key question is how SAF produced in Africa reaches airlines that need it. One route is export. Or, book-and-claim, where the fuel is used locally and the environmental certificates are sold to European airlines facing mandates.

As a low-income nation in the Horn of Africa, recovering from a civil conflict that ended in late 2022, with a GDP per capita of around $1,200, Ethiopia doesn’t seem like the kind of country that would feature in a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) roadmap.

But once you look at what the country actually has to offer, a different picture emerges.

First of all, Ethiopia is weaning itself off imported fossil fuels and concentrating on energy security. The import of new petrol and diesel vehicles has been banned, and over 115,000 electric vehicles are registered. At the same time, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Africa’s largest hydropower project, is coming online, delivering surplus renewable electricity.

The government has also been laying groundwork in road transport. Since 2008, Ethiopia has pursued an ethanol blending policy, which involves mixing home-grown ethanol into petrol to replace costly imports.

What started as a cautious E5 blend (5% ethanol) has been stepped up toward E10 and eventually E20 (10% and 20% ethanol respectively). The idea is straightforward: use Ethiopia’s existing sugar industry and, increasingly, cassava to produce domestic fuel rather than spending scarce foreign currency on imported gasoline.

Now a UK-based developer with extensive experience of working in Africa, Sunbird, wants to apply the same principle to aviation by taking an agricultural crop, fermenting it to alcohol and turning that alcohol into SAF.

Ethiopian Airlines, the largest carrier on the continent, is a consortium partner. The country’s sovereign wealth fund, Ethiopian Investment Holdings, is participating. The World Bank conducted a feasibility study in 2024 that specifically identified the AtJ pathway as the optimal SAF technology for the country. And the Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials (RSB) has published a national biofuel strategy.

That’s where Richard Bennett comes in.

Thirteen years building bioenergy in Africa

Richard Bennett is the founder and CEO of Sunbird Group. He’s been doing this across Africa for 13 years, which makes him one of the longest-standing operators in an African bioenergy space that people in the aviation industry are only now discovering.

His path to Africa was accidental. Working in tech and cleantech, Bennett had partnered with China New Energy, one of the largest developers of renewable fuel technology in Southeast Asia, with around 200 plants. When they tried to take that technology into Africa, they hit a fundamental problem.

“What we found when we got there is, unlike in Southeast Asia, there’s no agricultural feedstock supply chains actually in place,” Bennett says. “That then gave birth to Sunbird. In order to sell plants and develop projects, we needed to look at fully integrated feedstock-to-liquid-fuel projects, the whole value chain.”

Today, Sunbird operates a sugarcane-to-bioethanol project in Sierra Leone, acquired from Swiss oil company Addax Norix. The asset includes a 22,000-hectare agricultural estate, a 60-million-litre bioethanol distillery, and a 32 MW biomass power plant. In Zambia, the company has developed a cassava-to-ethanol project designed to supply 20% of the country’s transport fuel through an E20 blend, with a 10,000-hectare estate and a 120-million-litre biorefinery.

The model Bennett has built around these real, operational assets is now being applied to Ethiopia, at a significantly larger scale.

The Ethiopia project

An MOU was signed in October 2025, with the initial partnership involving Sunbird and the Ethiopian Mining Corporation, a state-owned enterprise that provides industrial expertise and infrastructure. Bennett says the broader consortium also involves key government ministries, Ethiopian Airlines, and Ethiopian Investment Holdings, the sovereign wealth fund.

Bennett describes the Ethiopian government as “really future-minded around the green economy. They understand the problem. They’re a fuel importer, they’ve got great underutilised agricultural land resources, and a population they aim to move beyond subsistence farming. Agri-energy is a very good proposition for them.”

The project is phased deliberately:

• Phase one targets 60-70 million litres of bioethanol, with a two-year timeline to first production.

• Phase two upgrades to SAF via the alcohol-to-jet pathway, two to three years after that.

This matters when it comes to project financing. A phased approach where the first investment generates revenue from bioethanol, which is an established commodity, before the second phase requires the larger capital commitment for SAF conversion, is a fundamentally different risk profile from a single-stage direct-to-SAF megaproject.

The feedstock that’s hardly talked about

The core feedstock is cassava, a starchy root crop grown across the tropics. Though in much of Africa it’s a food staple, in Ethiopia itself it’s classified as an industrial crop as it isn’t part of the national diet. That means scaling up cassava production for fuel doesn’t compete with food security, which has been a criticism of previous African biofuel ventures.

And unlike sugarcane, which rewards scale and typically requires plantation-style agriculture, cassava is a smallholder crop.

Bennett explains why that matters: “When you’re growing cassava, as opposed to something like sugarcane or maize, it really lends itself to the small community outgrower programmes. If you’re a one-family plot where you have a couple of hectares, you can put one hectare to use growing for us.”

That produces a model where thousands of smallholder farmers grow feedstock and earn income, without being displaced from their land or absorbed into a plantation. In Zambia, Sunbird’s programme is designed to create over 20,000 economic opportunities for small-scale farmers. The Ethiopia project would operate on a similar basis.

1. It creates broad-based rural employment rather than a few hundred plant jobs.

2. It avoids the food-versus-fuel conflict.

3. It builds agricultural supply chains in regions that need them.

4. And it generates multiple revenue streams: the ethanol itself, high-protein animal feed from processing co-products (relevant because both Ethiopia and Zambia are targeting significant expansion of their cattle herds), renewable electricity from biomass waste, and clean cooking fuel.

Bennett frames the broader pitch to development lenders as this: “This is not a biofuel project that’s going to attract loads of negative press. This is a genuine agri-energy platform that’s got multiple outputs: the fuel, the food systems going alongside it, renewable power. You’ve created a cluster, a development effect for what’s going on around the projects as well.”

The price advantage

Bennett estimates that ATJ-produced fuel from Ethiopian cassava would currently price at around 2.5 times the cost of conventional jet fuel, before the latest round of Gulf tensions pushed fossil fuel prices higher still.

But if African ATJ can deliver at the lower end of the SAF cost spectrum, how does that fuel reach the airlines that need it?

Bennett sees three routes:

1. First, domestic political will, where the Ethiopian government pays a premium because the project creates agricultural jobs and reduces fuel import dependence. Ethiopian Airlines would then voluntarily uplift SAF.

2. Second, physical export to Europe. The shipping route from Ethiopia through the Suez Canal to Southern Europe is well established.

3. Third, and potentially most transformative: book-and-claim.

Under this mechanism, the physical fuel is used in Ethiopia at Ethiopian Airlines’ Addis Ababa hub, while the environmental attributes are sold as certificates to European or UK airlines facing blending mandates. If a carrier in Frankfurt can meet its mandate obligation by purchasing a certificate from SAF produced in Addis Ababa, and that SAF costs less to produce than European alternatives, then the mandates themselves become the market that connects African production to European demand.

The Spohr question revisited

In 2023, Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr argued that SAF production would inevitably migrate away from Europe, in the same way that Jet A is currently imported into the continent. But his bet was on e-fuels from green hydrogen, not agriculture.

For Africa, Bennett argues the agricultural pathway is the one that actually works: it creates thousands of livelihoods rather than a few hundred plant jobs, it produces bioethanol as a fallback product with real domestic demand if SAF offtake is slow, and it can be built in two years with proven technology.

“Just have regional ethanol production, and then have one super SAF plant that takes all the bioethanol and upscales it to SAF closer to the airport,” he explains. “It becomes more of a regional collaboration rather than a single company trying to develop a project.”

Bennett sees the model as replicable across Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya. “The strategy for Sunbird is really to get one or two projects up and running, and then use that as an investment platform to attract wider investment into the African industry.”

The honest risks

Ethiopia is not a straightforward operating environment. The Tigray conflict ended only in late 2022. The sugar sector reform that’s supposed to free up processing capacity has been slow.

And Bennett himself describes a cautionary tale in unintended consequences:

When the Ethiopian government imposed tariffs on imported alcohol, the country’s sugar companies pivoted. As he puts it: “The sugar companies were all producing ethanol for the transport industry. And then they went and put a very big import tariff on importing alcohol. So suddenly all the sugar companies started selling it as a beverage, rather than as fuel.” The result was less ethanol reaching the fuel market, creating the very deficit Sunbird is now trying to fill.

Then there is the question of mandates. Ethiopia has an E10/E20 policy on paper, but policy and enforcement are different things. Government priorities can shift.

Finally, book-and-claim, while conceptually powerful, is not yet operational for African-produced SAF. The regulatory frameworks in the EU and UK are still being finalised, meaning this route to market for now remains hypothetical.

Why this matters beyond Africa

The assumption until now has been that that SAF production will concentrate near demand: European refineries serving European mandates, US facilities serving US tax credits.

But the economics point in a different direction. Feedstock costs, labour costs, energy costs, and construction costs are all significantly lower across the Global South than in Europe or North America.

Will it work? That depends on execution, on whether the international regulatory architecture evolves and most crucially, financing. But the components are there. And it’s another example of how the future geography of SAF production could end up looking different from what the industry currently expects.

easyJet launched its net zero roadmap in 2022 and has spent the subsequent years focused on its execution. Operating within what Ranasinghe describes as the most tightly environmentally regulated aviation market in the world, the airline is under pressure to act while continuing to grow.

Ranasinghe reflects on the airline’s progress to date, from fleet renewal and operational efficiencies to the realities of scaling sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The conversation also explores easyJet’s role in advancing hydrogen propulsion with Rolls-Royce, its partnership with JetZero, and the emerging challenge of tackling non-CO2 impacts such as contrails.

easyJet last joined the podcast in 2023, where we explored the foundations of the airline’s net zero roadmap. That conversation provides useful context for how the strategy has progressed. You can revisit it here:

Here are the key highlights of the conversation:

• From strategy to execution: what a sustainability function actually does (2:30)

• Why airlines cannot wait: regulation, markets, and licence to operate (10:21)

• How easyJet built its net zero roadmap from the ground up (12:27)

• Why airspace modernisation is lagging, and where inefficiencies actually sit (20:22)

• Balancing growth and emissions: what “decoupling” looks like in practice (22:11)

• SAF reality check: supply constraints and structural challenges (24:28)

• Hydrogen engine breakthrough with Rolls-Royce (37:19)

• JetZero and the blended wing body opportunity (39:19)

• Contrails and non-CO2: from science to operational reality (41:18)

• Rapid Fire! (56:43)

Keep reading for a detailed overview of the episode.

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From roadmap to reality: easyJet’s next phase

The aviation industry has spent much of the past decade setting targets, building roadmaps and defining pathways to net zero. easyJet is a case study in what comes next: the considerably harder work of turning those plans into operational reality.

For Ranasinghe, the change is structural. Sustainability is no longer confined to reporting or compliance. It has become a core strategic function embedded across the business, and is critical for the airline’s long-term viability. “easyJet is 30 years old. For easyJet to be around for another 30 years, we need to understand how to drive this [sustainability] transition and play a part in it,” says Ranasinghe.

At the centre of this transition is what he describes as the industry’s defining challenge:

For an airline operating across Europe, the world’s most tightly regulated aviation environment, the question is not whether to act, but how to do so without putting itself at a competitive disadvantage against carriers facing less regulatory pressure.

5 takeaways from the conversation

1. How easyJet actually built its roadmap

easyJet’s net zero roadmap was established in 2022, but Ranasinghe emphasises that it is not a static document. Instead, it is actively maintained and evolves over time, with the strategy refined each year to reflect updated assumptions, particularly around fleet deliveries and growth.

Rather than starting from an SBTi-prescribed pathway and working backwards, easyJet built its roadmap from the ground up. This meant modelling fleet retirement profiles, operational efficiency gains and realistic timelines for airspace modernisation. The SBTi pathway was then overlaid as what Ranasinghe describes as a “translator”, converting temperature targets into a metric the business can act on: “If you say you need to keep your temperature profile on a well-below-two-degrees pathway, that’s Dutch to me. The value of the SBTi pathway is that it translates that temperature requirement into a language we can understand, namely CO2 intensity.”

Ensuring that this starting point was credible mattered. Before publishing the roadmap, easyJet conducted 26 rounds of external review, engaging NGOs, scientists, policymakers, industry bodies and technical partners. The aim was to test the assumptions rigorously before committing to them publicly.

2. Fleet renewal and operational efficiency are the strongest near-term levers

easyJet’s net zero roadmap is structured across three critical areas:

• Reduce emissions where possible. This pillar covers the areas most within the airline’s direct control, including fleet renewal, operational efficiency, and airspace modernisation.

• Replace fossil fuels over time. This focuses on transitioning away from fossil fuels through SAF and, in the longer term, hydrogen.

• Remove residual emissions that cannot be eliminated, through carbon removal technologies.

Fleet renewal is where the most immediate gains are being realised. Much of this comes down to gauge. Replacing the A319s with A320neo and A321neo aircraft improves carbon intensity without requiring any change in fuel. As Ranasinghe notes, the A319 and A321neo have broadly similar absolute fuel burn, but the latter carries 79 additional passengers. The result is a materially lower emissions intensity per seat.

Operational efficiency is also outperforming initial projections, driven largely by flight operations, states Ranasinghe. These are gains within the airline’s direct control, and they are being delivered faster than originally anticipated.

Airspace modernisation, by contrast, is proving slower to unlock. The airline continues to work towards a 10% efficiency improvement by 2035, but progress has not matched the pace assumed in its roadmap. Rather than relying on system-wide reform, easyJet has analysed its own network in detail to identify specific inefficiencies and hotspots, from high-density airport profiles to indirect routings. The aim is to work directly with airports and air navigation service providers (ANSPs) to address these hotspots incrementally.

3. Why SAF markets are not yet working for airlines

easyJet operates with a fully outsourced fuelling model. The airline pays a fuel supplier to deliver compliant fuel into the aircraft, with sourcing and blending handled upstream in the supply chain. That model works for meeting mandated SAF volumes, but it limits the airline’s ability to participate directly in long-term offtake agreements independently, particularly given it does not control the infrastructure needed to blend, distribute or refuel SAF once it leaves the production site.

Ranasinghe also points to a misalignment in how the SAF market currently functions. Unlike aircraft procurement, where launch customers often benefit from lower pricing, SAF markets create the possibility of a first-mover disadvantage. As production scales and costs fall, later entrants may gain access to cheaper supply. As he puts it:

To support the development of long-term supply of SAF, easyJet has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with ATOBA Energy, in partnership with World Fuel Services. The model positions ATOBA as an aggregator, offering access to a diversified pool of SAF supply with indexed pricing, rather than requiring airlines to commit to a single long-term source.

A separate approach is reflected in the airline’s partnership with Airbus. On routes such as Bristol to Toulouse, Airbus funds the purchase of physical SAF, with the emissions benefit split between the two: easyJet accounts for scope 1 reductions, while Airbus claims scope 3.

4. Hydrogen and blended wing body: the long-term bets

Alongside near-term operational measures, easyJet is investing in technologies beyond its current fleet horizon. These partnerships focus on shaping the future of aviation rather than delivering immediate impact.

easyJet’s collaboration with Rolls-Royce is aimed at a specific milestone: proving that a fully hydrogen-powered gas turbine engine could generate more than 30,000 pounds of thrust without fossil fuel. That is the level required for narrow-body commercial operations. Recently, the companies announced the successful testing of a modified Rolls-Royce Pearl 15 aircraft engine, at NASA’s Stennis Space Center. This marks a significant step in proving the viability of hydrogen in aviation.

easyJet has also partnered with US-based start up JetZero, which is developing an ultra-efficient blended-wing-body (BWB) aircraft. The design targets a 50% aerodynamic efficiency saving compared to a Boeing 767. easyJet is also part of an airline working group supporting the development of an operating model for the BWB aircraft, including how it could fit within a low-cost network.

5. Contrails cannot be solved without fixing airspace

Ranasinghe believes contrails are an important issue for the industry to address, and one where there is an opportunity to act proactively. At a global level, he notes, there is no real debate that contrails contribute to warming.

A relatively small share of flights drives a disproportionate share of the impact: around 5% of flights are responsible for roughly 80% of contrail-related warming, as they pass through ice-supersaturated regions (ISSRs) where persistent contrails form.

In principle, the solution is straightforward: avoid those regions by flying above, below or around them. In practice, the challenge is far more complex: it depends on predictive models that are accurate enough to identify ISSRs in advance and reliable enough to be integrated into flight planning and operations.

Crucially, he describes contrails as a system-level issue rather than something individual airlines can solve on their own. The impact of contrails is linked to specific blocks of airspace at particular moments in time, affecting all aircraft passing through them. That means any meaningful solution has to involve ANSPs, not just changes to individual flight paths. In his view, this ties contrail avoidance directly to airspace reform, and the two need to be pursued together, not in parallel silos.

The transition to net zero in aviation will not be defined by a single breakthrough, but by how airlines manage competing constraints over time. easyJet’s roadmap offers a grounded view of that reality. Progress will depend as much on systems and markets as on technology.

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• Cameroon has been identified by ICAO as one of seven strategic gateway countries for SAF development in Africa, with a national feasibility study now underway.

• WESAF Energy Solutions is developing a vertically integrated sugarcane-to-ethanol project on 322 hectares, with SAF as its highest-value end market and a total capex of $38 million.

• The project includes captive solar power and bagasse cogeneration. This is essential in a region where the electricity grid doesn’t reach the site.

• A clean cooking programme using 5-10% of ethanol output, plus free surplus solar power for local schools and hospitals, could become a template for how SAF projects in Africa deliver local value to succeed.

• Central thesis: Cameroon’s position as the largest economy in the six-nation CEMAC bloc makes it a natural launchpad for regional SAF production. The key to realising that will be the successful execution of initiatives such as the WESAF sugarcane project.

At the SAF Investor London conference earlier this year, Wakina Mutembei of Kenya Airways told a story that captures one of the absurdities of the current SAF market. When the airline operated its first SAF-powered long-haul flight in 2023, the fuel had been refined in Italy. But the feedstocks used in it had actually originated in Kenya. The fuel was then shipped back and sold to Kenya Airways at seven times the cost of Jet A.

One of those developers is Marvin Tabi of WESAF Energy Solutions. He’s building a sugarcane-to-ethanol project in Cameroon, with SAF as its primary high-value market. In a conversation with Sustainability in the Air, Tabi laid out a vision that offers a window into what SAF development in Africa might actually look like over the coming decade.

From Aberdeen to the World Cup to Cameroon

Tabi originally studied oil and gas in Aberdeen, where his postgraduate project focused on decentralised energy systems for Africa and the developing world. He worked briefly in the oil industry, but the turning point came during the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.

“That’s when it really hit home,” he says. “All they were saying to me was, this is what you guys need to be doing in Africa.” Brazil’s ethanol industry, built on sugarcane and now deeply integrated into its transport infrastructure, offered a proof point. The feedstock was familiar. The technology was proven. The development impact was visible. It was, as Tabi puts it, “a no-brainer from there.”

He is Cameroonian, which explains the location. But there are strategic reasons too. Cameroon is the largest country as well as economy in the CEMAC bloc (Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Congo, Chad and the Central African Republic). The total population across all six countries is approaching 100 million. Cameroon sits five hours by air from both Dubai and mainland Europe. And, as Tabi puts it, its agricultural potential is significant.

The project: ethanol first, SAF next

“Everything grows out there,” he says. “Ridiculously fertile soils. I saw someone growing strawberries in Africa last year. I couldn’t believe it.”

The business model is layered, with ethanol production as the core; the goal is approximately 10 million gallons from the initial facility. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is the highest-value product, and marine fuel is a secondary market. But Tabi’s starting point will be to prove the ethanol supply chain works, then upgrade to SAF once execution is demonstrated.

His target is to be operational by 2030, when mandates tighten. He believes this is realistic as the typical lead time on an ethanol refinery is around 24 months. Total capex is $38 million, covering both the power infrastructure and the ethanol refinery itself.

The ICAO connection

ICAO has identified Cameroon as one of seven strategic gateway countries for SAF development in Africa and is funding a national feasibility study. The feasibility study will identify feedstocks, assess technology options, and outline how to shape demand in a market that currently does not exist. This last point is key.

SAF in Africa doesn’t have an existing alternative fuels market to latch onto; one needs to be built from scratch. “Africa will have to re-engineer how you build demand,” he says. “Execution is key. Start with smaller volumes, prove you can do it, then scale.”

Power: the non-negotiable

Perhaps the most important practical insight from Tabi’s experience concerns electricity. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, you cannot assume the grid will support an industrial facility. In WESAF’s case, the grid simply doesn’t extend to their land.

The alternative, asking the public electricity body to extend it, is unappealing. “They’ll do it from the furthest location and charge you the most,” Tabi says. “And when they get round to doing it, it’ll be on their time.”

Instead, WESAF has designed a captive power system: 10 megawatts of solar, supplemented by cogeneration from sugarcane bagasse. This makes the facility energy-independent and insulates it from global energy price volatility. According to Tabi, “If you don’t install captive power, I wouldn’t do the project.”

Demonstrating success to the local community

This is also where WESAF’s model diverges from the typical SAF project structure.

Tabi plans to dedicate 5-10% of ethanol output to clean cooking fuel, displacing firewood and reducing deforestation. He says this is not corporate social responsibility but a way to demonstrate success and value to the community.

“It always feels like a con if you’ve got this industry in the country, and you’re producing a global product, but the average man doesn’t benefit from it. This is what has caused a lot of problems with the oil industry in a lot of African countries.”

Then there is surplus energy. Rather than attempting to sell electricity, which would create issues by competing with the energy provider, WESAF plans to install public charging points where locals can charge devices for a small fee.

For schools and hospitals, the power would be free. “I would just feel wrong to try and charge these public institutions,” Tabi says.

The economics work because SAF and ethanol revenue absorb the capex cost of the power infrastructure. The community benefits are built into the business model rather than bolted on as an afterthought.

Beyond Cameroon: the CEMAC opportunity

Tabi’s ambitions extend beyond a single site. Cameroon’s government has indicated willingness to provide further land concessions, and Tabi is looking to expand to 2,000-3,000 hectares across the country’s 10 regions with distributed feedstock production zones that all feed into central processing.

More significantly, he is in conversations with Equatorial Guinea, a neighbouring oil-rich country, about replicating the model there. The logic is that if SAF can be produced across multiple CEMAC countries, the opportunity to serve European airlines that fly into these destinations becomes substantial.

He cites a conversation with a large European leisure travel giant, whose procurement director told him directly that the airline would rather buy physical fuel than rely on book-and-claim certificates. Tabi believes that the preference for physical uplift, combined with the cost advantage of producing in Africa, suggests a genuine commercial opportunity if the production can be demonstrated.

The funding challenge

WESAF is a UK-based holding company with on-the-ground project companies, keeping financing within a jurisdiction that investors are comfortable with. Tabi is seeking $1.5 million for the clean cooking component (which also covers feed studies and early engineering) and an initial investment of around $25 million toward the total $38 million capex for power and the ethanol refinery.

But he is realistic about the challenges of raising capital for an African SAF project. Many investors are unfamiliar with the sector. Some ask questions that reveal how little they know about the continent. “People ask me, does sugarcane grow in Cameroon? I sometimes just want to say no,” he laughs.

The broader challenge affects every SAF project on the continent. AFRAA’s 2025 SAF Readiness Survey found that around 80% of African airlines have no access to SAF at their operational airports, and about 70% insist that SAF must be price-competitive with conventional jet fuel. Yet the same survey found that 92% of airlines are open to collaboration, and 84% are ready to join an AFRAA SAF Taskforce. The willingness is there. But not the infrastructure. Not yet, anyway.

The bigger picture

What Tabi is building is a proof-of-concept. If it works, it could be replicated across Central and West Africa, in countries with similar agricultural profiles and similar needs for economic development, energy access, and connection to global markets.

The potential is there. But will the global investment ecosystem recognise that the most cost-effective SAF production of the next decade may come from regions that most investors have barely considered, built by developers who know their markets intimately and are willing to start small?

As Tabi puts it: “We don’t want to pioneer, we don’t want to be the number one region everyone gets excited about. We just want to be in the game.”

Industry Updates

• India updates jet fuel regulations to allow for SAF blending - Ethanol Producer Magazine

The Indian government has amended its aviation fuel regulations to permit SAF blending, introducing targets of 1% by 2027, rising to 5% by 2030 for international flights.

• EU weighs more US jet fuel, cleaner aviation amid Iran war strains - Reuters

The European Union has promised guidance for airlines on managing fuel shortages caused by the Iran war, though no widespread cancellations have yet been reported.

• Delta reframes net-zero as an ‘aspiration,’ but denies axing 2030 SAF goal - ESG Dive

Delta Air Lines has reframed its 2050 net-zero target as an “aspiration” on its website, though a spokesperson insists it remains committed to 10% SAF usage by 2030.

• Carbonfuture signs multi-year agreement with Boeing to supply carbon removal credits - GreenAir News

Boeing has signed a multi-year agreement with Carbonfuture for at least 40,000 tonnes of carbon removals, sourced from biochar projects across the Global South.

Infrastructure and operational efficiencies

• How YVR, MUC, PIT and YEG are scaling sustainability through innovation, energy transition and collaboration - FTE

Airports including Vancouver, Munich, Pittsburgh and Edmonton have accelerated sustainability through partnerships, with YVR targeting net-zero emissions by 2030 and zero waste by 2040.

• ITA Airways to save fuel and reduce emissions in 2026 thanks to AI-powered tool - SITA

ITA Airways has used SITA’s AI-based climb optimisation to achieve substantial fuel savings, with over 7,100 tonnes of fuel and 22,100 tonnes of CO2 to be saved across 2025 and 2026.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

• EPA approves RFS fuel pathway for Summit Next Gen - Biomass Magazine

The US EPA has approved Summit Next Gen’s fuel pathway to produce renewable diesel and SAF from undenatured sugarcane ethanol at its Texas facility.

• Shanghai Electric develops aviation fuel from waste oil, achieves global first - BioEnergy Times

Shanghai Electric has achieved a world-first by producing 100% SAF from waste oils and fats that can be used directly in aircraft engines without blending.

• Southern Energy Renewables and Axens sign MOU to advance SAF projects in Louisiana and beyond - Biomass Magazine

Southern Energy Renewables has signed an MOU with Axens to collaborate on SAF development, starting with a Louisiana biomass facility, while also creating an experimental digital token.

• South Africa’s Sasol aims for green jet fuel exports to EU - Reuters

Sasol has received German certification for its SAF produced from cooking oil, paving the way for exports to the European Union from South Africa.

• XCF Global and DevvStream combine capabilities to bring transferable 45Z clean fuel credits to market - Biomass Magazine

XCF Global and DevvStream have agreed to explore an integrated platform to generate, verify and market 45Z clean fuel production credits for SAF.

• DHL and IAG Cargo seal major multi-year SAF agreements - Biofuels International Magazine

DHL Group has expanded its SAF collaboration with IAG Cargo, enabling 240 million litres of SAF at Heathrow and reducing lifecycle emissions by 640,000 tonnes of CO2e.

New technology: Electric and Hydrogen

• World-first eVTOL transition flight for Vertical Aerospace - New Atlas

Vertical Aerospace has completed the world’s first full-scale piloted two-way eVTOL transition flight under civil aviation Design Organisation Approval oversight.

• Smartflyer and H55 advance electric aviation with first delivery of certifiable battery modules for the SFX1 aircraft - Yahoo

Smartflyer has received the first batch of Adagio battery modules from H55, enabling full system integration and testing for its SFX1 aircraft ahead of ground tests this summer.

• Positive Electron unveils updated design for all-electric E5 - FlightGlobal

Electron Aerospace has redesigned its all-electric E5 aircraft, removing the canard and switching to tractor propellers ahead of a prototype first flight targeted for 2027.

• Norway takes the next step as an international test arena with Bristow Group and Electra - Bristow

Bristow, Electra, Avinor and the Norwegian CAA have launched a second test project for zero-emission aviation, with hybrid-electric demonstrations planned from mid-2027.

• Can $400M keep Aura Aero’s hybrid-electric dreams alive? - Flying Magazine

Aura Aero has raised €50 million in Series A funding plus €120 million in subsidies, though first flight of its 19-seat hybrid-electric Era has slipped to “less than two years”.

• Dubai vertiport reaches technical completion ahead of air taxi launch - Passenger Terminal Today

A vertiport near Dubai International Airport has reached technical completion, with a planned capacity of 170,000 passengers annually and operations targeted before the end of 2026.

• The future of aviation? Why Rolls-Royce filed a patent for a hydrogen engine system - Simple Flying

Rolls-Royce has patented a new hydrogen combustion system that uses a small amount of fuel to pre-heat the rest, solving key challenges around ultra-cold liquid hydrogen storage.

• Vertical Aerospace secures $850 million financing package for Valo eVTOL - AeroTime

Vertical Aerospace has closed a financing package worth up to $850 million, providing fresh support for its Valo eVTOL program following a successful two-way transition flight.

Every year, we survey airline sustainability teams to take the pulse of where the industry actually stands. The result is our annual Sustainable Aviation Outlook report, one of the few publications grounded entirely in primary data from airlines, giving sustainability leaders an honest benchmark of industry efforts.

This Earth Day, we’re releasing the third edition of our Sustainable Aviation Outlook report, based on insights from 26 airlines across six continents.

What’s new in 2026

• A first look at how airlines are preparing for CORSIA Phase 1 compliance, and the challenges that remain

• Insights into the regulatory landscape shaping SAF, from ReFuelEU and UK mandates to regional policies

• How airlines actually plan to meet SAF requirements through 2030, from direct fuel purchases to Book and Claim, offsets, long-term agreements, and investment in production

• A new digital format, with the report also made available as a structured web experience for easier navigation

Access the full report

Five focus areas for airlines to accelerate sustainability progress

• Build CORSIA and SAF compliance infrastructure before Phase 2 extends offsetting requirements to all international flights in 2027.

• Secure diversified SAF supply through long-term offtake agreements, direct investment, and supply chain partnerships.

• Strengthen accountability by linking sustainability KPIs to executive compensation and operational targets.

• Communicate with precision to build stakeholder trust while meeting increasingly strict regulatory requirements for environmental claims.

• Collaborate at industry level on shared challenges, particularly SAF supply development and compliance standard-setting, where individual airline action has limited impact.

About the survey

SimpliFlying’s third annual Sustainable Aviation Outlook Survey was completed by 26 airlines, our largest and most geographically diverse cohort to date. Participating airlines include Emirates, All Nippon Airways, Finnair, Virgin Australia, Turkish Airlines, Lufthansa Group, and many more

The survey covered six dimensions: team structure, strategy and reporting, sustainability initiatives, sustainable aviation fuel, perception and communication, and budget and investment. Each dimension draws on three years of longitudinal data, to provide a status update and actionable recommendations for the year ahead.

Industry Updates

• Scheme launched to provide independent verification of SAF traceability in the UK – GreenAir News

The Zemo Partnership has launched a voluntary assurance scheme for SAF traceability in the UK, with Valero as the first approved supplier, enabling verified emissions claims under the UK ETS.

• UK ‘green’ jet fuel imports linked to illegal Amazon deforestation - Unearthed

A major SAF supplier to the UK has been sourcing Brazilian beef fat linked to illegal Amazon deforestation, revealing a critical traceability gap in the green fuel supply chain.

• Delta quietly removes its net-zero 2030 goal as airlines worldwide abandon climate promises - Los Angeles Times

Delta Air Lines has quietly removed its 10% SAF pledge by 2030 from its website, rephrasing its net-zero target as an “aspiration” rather than a goal.

• Scoot, Qatar, and Ryanair top Cirium global airline emissions rankings in 2025 - Cirium

Scoot has been named the world’s most emissions-efficient airline by Cirium, with low-cost carriers dominating the top rankings due to younger fleets and higher seat density.

Infrastructure and operational efficiencies

• Noida International Airport revolutionises sustainability with cold roll forming technology - Science-Environment

Noida International Airport has installed over 6,000 furniture units made using cold roll forming technology, achieving 66% recyclability and setting a new benchmark for sustainable infrastructure.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

• EU eSAF projects stall as price forecasts fall and rules in question - S&P Global

High capital costs and a steeply falling price curve have delayed investment decisions for dozens of eSAF projects, as early movers risk becoming uncompetitive within years.

• Boeing and Norsk e-Fuel expand efforts to advance e-fuels - Boeing

Boeing has expanded its collaboration with Norsk e-Fuel to accelerate synthetic aviation fuel production, aiming to strengthen Europe’s energy resilience and reduce fossil fuel dependency.

• Metafuels secures major Dutch government grant to support eSAF project – GreenAir News

Metafuels has secured a €1.92 million Dutch government grant to advance its eSAF project in Rotterdam, targeting commercial production from 2030 using its methanol-to-jet technology.

• eFuels SEA launches platform to develop eFuels projects across Southeast Asia using Infinium technology - Morningstar

eFuels SEA has launched in Singapore to develop electrofuel projects across Southeast Asia, licensing Infinium’s technology to convert carbon dioxide and renewable power into sustainable fuels.

• DSV collaborates with Microsoft, United Airlines and Phillips 66 to unlock 11 million gallons of sustainable aviation fuel - DSV

DSV has collaborated with Microsoft, United Airlines and Phillips 66 to unlock 11 million gallons of SAF, demonstrating how coordinated long-term agreements can scale the market effectively.

• DHL joins top three global SAF purchasers as it triples use of SAF in 2025 – GreenAir News

DHL used 185 kilotonnes of SAF in 2025, nearly tripling its consumption from 2024, and has signed a new five-year agreement with IAG Cargo for 240 million litres at Heathrow.

• Wisconsin enacts landmark legislation to further SAF production - NBAA

Wisconsin has signed a bill creating a manufacturing zone for SAF from woody biomass, allocating up to $120 million in tax credits for production using locally sourced forestry residues.

• SABA selects Infinium and American Airlines for next-generation SAF procurement award – GreenAir News

The Sustainable Aviation Buyers Alliance has selected Infinium’s Project Atlas to supply SAF certificates, with a planned capacity of 100,000 tonnes per year targeting 95% emissions reduction.

• California Senate subcommittee hears testimony on proposed SAF tax credit - Biodiesel Magazine

California’s Senate budget subcommittee has heard testimony on Governor Newsom’s proposed SAF tax credit, worth $1 to $2 per gallon, despite opposition from the state’s Legislative Analyst’s Office.

• Petrobas picks Honeywell technology for SAF project in Brazil - Biofuels International Magazine

Petrobras has selected Honeywell’s ethanol-to-jet technology for a new SAF project at its REPLAN refinery in São Paulo, aiming to deliver up to 10,000 barrels per day.

New technology: Electric and Hydrogen

• Beyond Aero selects Luxaviation as launch operator for hydrogen-electric aircraft - Business Airport International

Beyond Aero has appointed Luxaviation Group as the launch operator for its six-passenger hydrogen-electric business aircraft, focusing on operational readiness and certification pathways.

• Elysian Aircraft modifies design of EX9 electric regional airliner - Aviation International News

Elysian Aircraft has reduced the number of electric motors on its E9X regional airliner concept from eight to six following its conceptual design review and scaled demonstrator flights.

• BETA reaches deal for electric aircraft in Hawaii - WCAX

Beta Technologies has reached a deal to sell 25 Alia electric aircraft to Surf Air, with an option for 75 more, starting operations in Hawaii to cut fuel costs and emissions.

• South Florida “flying car” manufacturer debuts latest concept - MSN

Doroni Aerospace has debuted its luxury personal eVTOL concept, designed to seat two passengers and reach 120mph, with testing planned for 2027 and a projected price of $450,000.

• Air Products scales U.S. green hydrogen network to support transportation and industrial end-users - Energies Media

Air Products has cancelled three U.S. hydrogen projects, including a SAF expansion in California, taking a $3.1 billion charge as it narrows its focus to scalable transport and industrial infrastructure.

Montana Renewables (MRL) is an unrestricted subsidiary of Calumet, which developed the business by converting a portion of its crude oil refinery in Great Falls, Montana. The facility now processes a range of feedstocks, including used cooking oil, agricultural waste and emerging crops, into SAF, renewable diesel and renewable hydrogen.

Here are the key highlights of the conversation:

• Montana Renewables’ origin and the retrofit model (2:48)

• Scaling from 30M to 300M gallons: what it actually involves (7:54)

• The policy landscape and why private capital has withdrawn (10:05)

• Feedstock agnosticism and the camelina case (22:16)

• Why the EU’s RFNBO mandate is “preposterous” (28:54)

• The case for fuelling general aviation first (38:30)

• The SAF industry in 2035 and beyond (45:16)

• Rapid Fire! (48:31)

Keep reading for a detailed overview of the episode.

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Why parallel refinery systems matter for scaling SAF production

Much of the current momentum around SAF production has focused on new, purpose-built plants. Montana Renewables took a different route. Instead of starting from scratch, it reconfigured part of an existing refinery, and adapted established infrastructure to process renewable feedstocks.

The capital case for this approach is obvious. A retrofit costs significantly less than a greenfield build: the site, civil works, safety systems and workforce are already in place. Moreover, if a large refinery converts entirely to renewable operations, the overall transportation fuel output can fall sharply, says Fleming.

MRL avoided that trade-off by operating two distinct businesses on the same site: a conventional refinery alongside a separate renewables line, supported by a shared workforce and common operating standards.

Fleming positions MRL’s approach as a model that could be applied wherever suitable refinery infrastructure already exists:

4 ways Montana Renewables is redefining SAF production

1. The retrofit model at commercial scale

Montana Renewables operates two distinct but co-located operations at its Great Falls site: a conventional crude oil refinery and a renewables facility.

The facility is currently permitted to process about 250 million gallons of renewable feedstock annually, with plans to expand that to roughly 300 million gallons. This increase requires only a modest uptick in overall throughput, with the more meaningful change coming from optimising the product mix, explains Fleming.

With nearly four years of operating experience, the company has also identified specific constraints and bottlenecks in its process. While MRL’s current economic SAF yield is around 50 million gallons per year, it expects to increase this output by reconfiguring the process to favour SAF, rather than materially increasing total input.

“Depending on market conditions and demand, we have the flexibility to tailor the output so that up to 90% of the feedstocks come back as SAF,” says Fleming.

2. Feedstock agnosticism

MRL can process a wide range of inputs: used cooking oil, conventional vegetable crops, agricultural waste and emerging cover crops. Fleming describes these feedstocks as largely interchangeable from an operator’s perspective. Each requires pre-treatment and careful handling through a sensitive catalytic process, but the choice between them is driven by economics rather than technical constraints. If a buyer specifies a particular feedstock, the company can accommodate it; the added constraint is simply reflected in the price.

“We don’t care what feedstock we put into the machine. All of these are essentially interchangeable to an operator like us.”

Fleming uses this to challenge a common concern in SAF debates: that scaling production will compete with food for land. His view is that agricultural productivity in North America has increased faster than food demand for decades, leaving more land available. In that context, he sees the food-versus-fuel framing as an oversimplification of a more dynamic system.

3. Why policy volatility is limiting capital for SAF

Fleming expresses concern around feedstock regulations. Supply chains, he argues, take years to adjust. Once a jurisdiction restricts which feedstocks can be used for specific applications, commercial operators, including growers, transporters, and producers, adjust their supply chains to work around those limits.

“You cannot over-constrain an industry that is still in an experimental phase by micromanaging which feedstocks are allowed for targeted applications.”

The result is that global supply still meets demand, but through longer and more costly routes. Feedstocks are re-routed across regions and end uses to comply with local rules, often through longer and less efficient pathways. That added complexity feeds directly into higher costs and weaker economics. This also affects investments significantly.

Fuel infrastructure requires capital commitments over decades, yet the regulatory frameworks governing SAF continue to evolve on much shorter timelines. Incentives such as US producer tax credits and Renewable Identification Number (RIN) markets, alongside parallel schemes in other regions, are all evolving, often without coordination.

“Without policy stability over a decade or more, investment will not extend beyond early-stage seed capital,” he explains. In practice, that leaves early-stage venture capital as the dominant source of funding, while large-scale projects struggle to secure financing.

4. Book-and-claim can materially reduce SAF costs

Fleming is a strong advocate for book-and-claim, framing it as a logistical solution rather than a purely accounting mechanism.

Today, SAF transactions are often constrained by requirements around traceability and physical linkage, which can result in fuel being transported over long distances to match specific buyers.

Book-and-claim separates the two. The fuel is delivered wherever it is most efficient to do so, while the associated emissions reduction is allocated to the buyer through a certificate.

“The difference is about a dollar per gallon in the finished fuel, if I can avoid transporting materials across the country by truck and rail, which is inefficient, and instead use pipelines, which are more efficient.” At scale, that cost differential becomes significant; a structural efficiency gain rather than a marginal improvement.

Overall, Montana renewables’ approach points to a pragmatic route for SAF scale: build on existing infrastructure, retain flexibility, and align policy with investment timelines. Without that stability, the industry risks slowing just as it begins to prove what is possible.

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‘Sustainability in the Air’ is the world’s leading podcast dedicated to sustainable aviation. Through in-depth conversations with top aviation leaders, we break through the clutter and provide a clear roadmap for a net-zero future.

• Uzbekistan’s $6 billion SAF mega-project could make Central Asia a world leading production hub, challenging US/Europe/Middle East dominance.

• The project is hybrid AtJ (sorghum/camelina ethanol) + e-SAF (biogenic CO2 + 2.4GW green H2) targeting 400k+ tonnes/year SAF.

• It is backed by Presidential Decree, while the country has cheap solar (300 sunny days) and low costs. However challenges include feedstock scale, water limits and double-landlocked logistics hurdles.

• Central thesis: Conventional SAF hotspots may not completely define future production; regions with cheaper inputs could reshape geography despite logistics.

• As mandates grow in demand markets, regions like Uzbekistan might outcompete proximity if transport premiums stay manageable.

When the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry maps out where large-scale production will happen, the names usually cited include places like Texas, Spain, the UAE and Chile.

One name you normally don’t hear mentioned is Uzbekistan.

Thats about to change, following the announcement of a $6 billion project, that, if realised, will become one of the world’s biggest SAF projects, with fuel produced at an industrial scale via both the alcohol-to-jet (AtJ) and eSAF pathways.

This comes as the country’s fundamentals suggest it has many of the ingredients needed to become a major SAF centre. Here’s why:

• First, there’s the solar potential. Uzbekistan averages 300 days of sunshine per year, with solar irradiation comparable to that in Spain. By the end of 2025, the country had installed 8 GW of renewable capacity, 31% of its total, and is targeting 25 GW of solar and wind by 2030.

• Second, land is abundant, and labour costs are lower than in Europe. And crucially, a region that spent decades watching cotton monoculture contribute to one of the world’s worst ecological disasters, the drying of the Aral Sea, is now actively looking for agricultural alternatives.

• That combination: Cheap renewable energy for green hydrogen, available agricultural land, low construction costs and strong political backing, forms the logic behind what would be one of the largest SAF schemes anywhere on earth.

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The project: AtJ meets e-Fuels

This month, Allied Biofuels, a Perth, Australia-headquartered developer, signed a binding Project Implementation Agreement with the regional government of Khorezm in northwestern Uzbekistan, backed by a Presidential Decree granting Special Economic Zone status with tax exemptions and customs incentives.

The total projected investment represents a colossal sum — $6.08 billion. Final investment decision is targeted for late 2026.

The facility’s design is a hybrid of two SAF pathways:

• The first is alcohol-to-jet. Using first-generation ethanol technology from India’s Praj Industries, the plant would convert locally grown feedstock, primarily sorghum, alongside camelina and agricultural residues, into approximately 293,000 tonnes per year of ethanol. That ethanol would then be converted into around 160,000 tonnes of SAF and 5,000 tonnes of green diesel annually.

• The second pathway, e-fuels, expands the scale dramatically. Biogenic CO2 captured during ethanol fermentation would be combined with green hydrogen, produced using up to 2.4 GW of Plug Power PEM electrolysers powered by 4.45 GW of dedicated renewable energy, to produce roughly 257,000 tonnes per year of electro-SAF (e-SAF).

The feedstock choices are worth noting. Sorghum is salt-tolerant and has been shown in research trials in Khorezm to perform well on marginal, salinised soils. This is exactly the kind of degraded land that cotton and wheat increasingly struggle on. Camelina, an oilseed native to Central Asia, is drought-tolerant and can grow on land unsuitable for food crops. Both choices avoid the food-versus-fuel conflict.

The questions

The fundamentals and numbers may be impressive. However, a project of this scale in a non-obvious geography does raise a number of questions.

First of all, the feedstock requirement, nearly 5,800 tonnes of biomass per day, is enormous, and no sorghum supply chain exists in Uzbekistan at anything close to this volume. Khorezm’s irrigated cropland covers around 270,000 hectares in a region where agriculture already consumes 90% of available water.

Building an entirely new feedstock ecosystem here is not trivial.

Then there is the logistics challenge. Uzbekistan is one of only two double-landlocked countries on earth. Every tonne of SAF produced would need to cross at least two national borders to reach a seaport, let alone the airports in Europe, the Middle East or Asia where mandates and / or demand exist.

The project also depends on 2.4 GW of electrolysers from Plug Power, a company that has faced well-documented financial headwinds, including a suspended Department of Energy loan programme and class action lawsuits. And the 4.45 GW of renewable energy the facility would require exceeds Uzbekistan’s total installed solar capacity as of early 2025.

The bigger picture

Whether or not this specific project reaches a final investment decision, the underlying thesis deserves attention.

The economics of SAF production are driven by factors such as renewable energy, feedstock, labour and construction costs, land costs and availability and in the case of e-fuels, green hydrogen. These can, in many cases, be sourced more cheaply in places like Central Asia, North Africa and parts of Latin America than in the established aviation markets of Europe and North America.

As a result, as a recent SAF Investor London panel chaired by SimpliFlying founder and CEO Shashank Nigam found, areas of the world including the so-called Global South represents an enormous, untapped SAF opportunity.

SAF mandates, however, are being set in established markets. If the cheapest production happens thousands of miles from where the fuel is needed, the question becomes whether the logistics cost of transporting fuel from low-cost production regions to high-demand markets is less than the input cost premium of producing closer to demand.

However, the fact that a $6 billion project with Presidential backing is being developed in Uzbekistan, suggests that the geography of SAF production could end up looking different from what the industry currently expects.

Industry Updates

• Who pays for net zero aviation? Airlines warn rising costs threaten fares and connectivity - Aerospace Global News

The aviation industry has not yet decided who will pay for net zero, as airlines baulk at costs, investors demand policy certainty, and mandate-driven SAF premiums have proven unexpectedly expensive.

• Sustainable aviation fuel could buffer airlines from energy spikes - Travel Weekly

US SAF production has tripled, but industry insiders fear a decline without renewed tax credits, as the fuel struggles to compete with renewable diesel for limited refinery space.

• Estuaire is collaborating with Air France address contrail impact - Estuaire

Estuaire has partnered with Air France to address the climate impact of contrails, advancing scientific understanding and developing practical solutions to reduce aviation’s environmental footprint and support the industry’s transition.

Infrastructure and operational efficiencies

• Iberia partners with RECARO on innovative trial of sustainable aircraft seating features - Future Travel Experience

Iberia has partnered with RECARO to trial sustainable seating on an A320neo, using upcycled fishing nets and real wood inlays to bring circular design into the aircraft cabin.

• Jet2.com achieves fuel and emissions savings through lightweight paint - Jet2

Jet2.com has applied lightweight paint to over 80 aircraft, saving nearly a quarter of a million litres of fuel annually and cutting carbon emissions by more than 500 tonnes.

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Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

• SAF start-up Sora Fuel raises USD 14.6m to build pilot production plant - Renewables Now

Sora Fuel has raised $14.6 million to scale a technology that turns air, water and renewable energy into jet fuel, aiming for price parity with fossil kerosene.

• Amex GBT, Shell Aviation and Google to accelerate decarbonisation through SAF agreement - TTGmice

Google has joined Amex GBT and Shell on the Avelia blockchain registry, using a book-and-claim model to buy SAF’s carbon savings even when the fuel is not physically available at its departure airport.

• XCF Global and Axens North America announce commercial collaboration for Vegan technology - Biomass Magazine

XCF Global has teamed up with Axens to deploy a modular refinery design, pairing its standardised blueprint with Vegan technology to accelerate SAF production worldwide.

• Oiltek secures USD 350 mil contract to build sustainable aviation fuel plant in Sabah - Yahoo

Oiltek has signed a $350 million deal to build a 300-tonne-per-day SAF plant in Sabah, an order that dwarfs its existing RM350 million book and deepens its role in the value chain.

• US breakthrough may cut cost of sustainable aviation fuel - BioEnergy Times

American scientists have developed a single-step catalyst to turn ethanol directly into jet fuel, and Gevo is now scaling the process to lower SAF costs significantly.

• Turkish Airlines Commits to Major SAF Producer Stake in Strategic Investment - AeroMorning

Turkish Airlines has approved a $42 million investment for a 40% stake in a Turkish biofuel producer, moving from SAF consumer to equity partner in production capacity.

• Acelen and Finboot sign biofuel traceability partnership for Brazilian SAF project – GreenAir News

Finboot has signed with Acelen Renewables to trace macauba-oil SAF from farm to fuel, using blockchain to meet strict EU and US sustainability regulations for Brazilian exports.

New technology: Electric and Hydrogen

• China’s push for hydrogen-powered planes takes step forward amid Iran energy crisis - SCMP

China has successfully flown the world’s most powerful hydrogen turboprop on a 7.5-tonne uncrewed cargo plane, marking a major milestone in its green aviation push.

• Out From the Shadows: EVIO’s hybrid-electric aircraft plan - Skies Mag

EVIO has unveiled a 76-seat hybrid-electric regional aircraft, backed by Boeing and Pratt & Whitney Canada, with first deliveries planned for the early 2030s.

• Vertical’s eVTOL completes first transition test flight - Aerospace Testing International

Vertical Aerospace has completed the first piloted transition of its full-scale eVTOL, taking off vertically and accelerating into wingborne flight at its Gloucestershire test site.

• Eve Air Mobility Builds Flight-Test Momentum With 50 Successful Flights - Eve Air Mobility

Eve Air Mobility has passed 50 successful test flights with its full-scale eVTOL prototype, gathering critical data as it moves towards certification and conforming prototypes.

• Joby Taps Air Space Intelligence To Manage eVTOL Traffic Coordination - Aviation International News

Joby has teamed up with Air Space Intelligence to use AI for airspace coordination, aiming to integrate its eVTOL taxis seamlessly into the busy US National Airspace System.

• Boeing Plays Big Role in Autonomous Electric Aircraft’s First Flight - Industrial Equipment News

Aurora Flight Sciences has helped design Wisk’s autonomous Generation 6 aircraft, providing critical battery, guidance and structural engineering to enable its first flight.

• FAA Publishes Special Conditions for ZeroAvia’s 600kW Electric Engine for Aircraft - ZeroAvia

The FAA has published final special conditions for ZeroAvia’s electric engine, a major step towards certifying its hydrogen-electric powertrain for 10-20 seat aircraft.

• Blue Spirit Aero Completes High-Altitude Hydrogen Propulsion Test - Fuel Cells Works

Blue Spirit Aero has validated its hydrogen propulsion pod in high-altitude winter tests, clearing the way for flight testing of its Dragonfly light aircraft demonstrator.

While one can only guess how SAF markets will develop between now and 2035, airlines cannot wait for certainty before acting, decisions made in 2026 will determine cost exposure and supply access for the rest of the decade.

This report is a decision-support tool for airline teams navigating SAF cost exposure, compliance risk and procurement strategy with a primary focus on the second half of this decade to 2030.

This new report examines SAF from a practical airline perspective, focusing on the key decisions leadership teams need to make as mandates ramp up toward 2030. In particular, it looks at how airlines should approach:

1. SAF cost exposure and budgeting, including the full compliance cost stack, supplier fees, and route-level impact on ticket prices.

2. Dual regulatory frameworks, with different structures across ReFuelEU Aviation and the UK SAF Mandate requiring distinct compliance strategies.

3. Supply reality and the compliance gap, including limited SAF availability, feedstock concentration risk, and the implications for meeting 2030 targets.

4. eSAF readiness and procurement strategy, covering project maturity, hydrogen constraints, and how airlines should engage with offtake agreements and policy mechanisms today.

Download the full report for a detailed breakdown of SAF costs, supply outlook, and the decisions airlines need to make before 2030.

The FEL is a regulatory scheme that gives airlines a verified, harmonised way to disclose CO2 emissions to passengers. EASA, as an independent authority within the EU’s aviation system, plays a central role in ensuring consistency and credibility in how these emissions are communicated.

The Flight Emissions Label forms part of the same legislative package as RefuelEU Aviation, the EU’s SAF mandate framework. Currently, participation is voluntary for airlines within European jurisdictions, and the label aims to tackle a persistent challenge in aviation sustainability: the lack of a standardised approach to calculating emissions.

Here are the key highlights of the conversation:

• What makes the Flight Emissions Label trustworthy and harmonised (7:36)

• How transparency can be a commercial advantage for airlines (18:00)

• How and where passengers will see emissions data (22:31)

• Safeguards against greenwashing and selective disclosure (28:05)

• How the label accounts for SAF and incentivises uptake (31:03)

• Label 2: airline index and aircraft technology labelling (33:45)

• Implementation challenges and reporting burden (39:23)

Keep reading for a detailed overview of the episode.

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Why a harmonised standard matters to aviation’s credibility

Aviation faces a distinct transparency challenge. While passengers can already check the carbon footprint of a flight across multiple platforms, each carbon calculator relies on its own assumptions, methodologies, and typically uses estimated rather than actual fuel burn, leading to inconsistent results. This results in the same flight yielding different figures for its CO2 emissions depending on the tool a passenger consults.

For passengers trying to make informed decisions, this is effectively meaningless noise. And for airlines, the fragmentation creates a different kind of problem: when anyone can choose which calculator to display their emissions through, the incentive to select the most flattering one is obvious.

“The idea is that, at least within the European Union, there is a single method for doing this, so when airlines disclose emissions, consumers can be confident they have all been calculated in the same way,” explains Achilleos.

EASA’s role as an independent authority is central here. Unlike commercial platforms, it has no commercial interest in how emissions are presented. The aim, as Achilleos puts it, is to create a direct and transparent channel between airlines and passengers, free from concerns about greenwashing, where airlines can clearly communicate their efforts to reduce environmental harm.

Four takeaways from the conversation

1. Real data, not modelled estimates

A key distinction that Di Palma and Achilleos emphasise about the FEL is the use of actual fuel burn data. Most existing calculators rely on estimates. They approximate how much fuel an aircraft type is likely to burn on a given route and use that to calculate emissions.

Much of this data is already reported by airlines under existing frameworks such as EU ETS, CORSIA, and RefuelEU. These datasets have already been subject to verification, and are used to ensure that emissions calculations are based on real operational data rather than modelled assumptions.

2. The first-mover dilemma: risk versus transparency

Participation in the FEL is currently voluntary, and initial consultations with airlines identified concerns around early adoption. In particular, airlines raised questions about the implications of publishing verified emissions data ahead of competitors.

“Being a first mover can have some negative consequences for airlines that choose to implement the Flight Emissions Label in their operations. So indeed, there was some pushback: ‘Why should we be the first? We are the ones exposing ourselves by putting our emissions on display,’” says Di Palma.

He also draws a parallel with other sectors where disclosure became standard practice over time, citing examples such as calorie labelling in food and beverages. In those cases, early adopters accepted a degree of commercial risk while making information more visible to consumers.

In addition, the label provides a way for airlines to communicate their investment in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Within the EU regulatory framework, airlines are required to meet SAF-related obligations under RefuelEU Aviation, and the label offers a mechanism to demonstrate these efforts to passengers and the wider public.

3. Integrating SAF use into emissions calculations

One of the label’s key design features is how it accounts for SAF, incorporating its impact directly into the CO2 calculation. As airlines increase their use of SAF, the reported emissions for a given flight decrease accordingly.

Di Palma describes both the mechanism and its intent: “The more airlines use SAF, the lower the CO2 emissions from their flights. This is therefore a mechanism to incentivise airlines to purchase and use more SAF in their operations.”

EASA is working with airlines, including Air France-KLM, to refine how SAF is accounted for within the label, particularly as the scheme is implemented and tested in practice.

4. Expanding the scope of emissions reporting

FEL currently assesses emissions on a flight-by-flight basis. EASA presents this as a starting point, while also exploring how the framework could evolve to reflect broader aspects of airline sustainability.

One area under consideration is how performance might be assessed at an airline level. As Achilleos explains: “It could be, for example, that if we are assessing an airline as a whole, it may make more sense to consider how much SAF it uses overall, rather than on a flight-by-flight basis.”

EASA has also made the code base for its emissions calculator publicly available, with the intention that other regions could adopt a similar approach.

By standardising how emissions are calculated and presented, the FEL addresses a long-standing gap in aviation sustainability communication. Its next phase will test how this framework can expand beyond individual flights to reflect broader performance. The outcome will shape how emissions data is understood by both airlines and passengers.

Get our new book

Our new book Sustainability in the Air: Volume Two is now available for purchase on Amazon. Learn more about the startups, strategists, and sceptics working to close the gap between growth and green ambition.

‘Sustainability in the Air’ is the world’s leading podcast dedicated to sustainable aviation. Through in-depth conversations with top aviation leaders, we break through the clutter and provide a clear roadmap for a net-zero future.

• Airport electricity demand could increase two to fivefold by 2050 as the sector electrifies ground operations, charges future electric aircraft, and supports SAF production, but a deep-pocketed competitor is already buying up much of the energy aviation will need.

• AI data centres are consuming energy on a staggering scale. A single next-gen facility can draw up to 1.2 gigawatts - equivalent to 750k-900k homes - and data centres already consume 21% of Ireland’s entire electricity supply. US grid interconnection now takes nearly five years; GE gas turbine lead times have stretched to seven years.

• Boom Supersonic’s pivot to selling 1.21GW of gas turbines to a data centre developer, with a $1.25 billion backlog, illustrates where energy investment is flowing.

• But there is an upside. The same technologies that data centres are driving to scale, such as next-gen geothermal, flow batteries, small nuclear, direct air capture, are exactly what aviation needs. Tech investment could bring costs down for everyone.

• Aviation cannot outbid big tech, but it can ride the cost curves. That means airports investing in on-site storage and microgrids, and SAF producers tracking energy technology trajectories as closely as feedstock prices.

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Airport electricity demand is heading in one direction. As the sector electrifies ground support equipment, installs charging infrastructure for future electric aircraft, and draws more heavily on clean power for terminal operations, studies forecast that airport power demand could double by 2030 and increase as much as fivefold by 2050.

Every pathway to decarbonising flight depends on abundant, affordable clean energy. Sustainable aviation fuel production, whether from waste feedstocks, power-to-liquids, or hydrogen, requires some degree of power. The hydrogen that underpins synthetic e-fuels needs either cheap renewable power for electrolysis or geological sources that are still being proven. Then we get to Direct Air Capture (DAC), an important tool for addressing residual emissions that is energy-intensive by design.

So, where will all this clean energy come from? That question took on new urgency at SXSW 2026 in Austin, where a panel on data centre sustainability made clear that aviation is not the only sector with an enormous and growing appetite for clean power, and certainly not the one with the deepest pockets.

A voracious energy appetite

The panel, “Dirty Data: The Hidden Climate Cost of Our Digital Lives,” brought together executives from geothermal startup Sage Geosystems, water technology firm Gradiant, flow battery developer XL Batteries, and green building standards body BREEAM. Even though none of them mentioned aviation once, everything they discussed has direct implications for airports, airlines, and fuel producers.

The panel started by outlining the colossal scale of data centre energy consumption:

Acoording to Jason Peart, COO of Sage Geosystems, a single next-generation AI data centre can consume up to 1.2 gigawatts of power. That is equivalent to a town of around 750k-900k homes. In terms of water consumption, the panel noted that a 100-megawatt facility uses as much water daily as 6,500 households.

Data centre power consumption is projected to reach 10-15% of the US grid by 2030. In Ireland, data centres already consume 21% of the country’s entire metered electricity supply, up from just 5% in 2015, according to figures from Ireland’s Central Statistics Office.

Moreover, data centres have now overtaken all urban dwellings as electricity consumers, and the International Energy Agency projects they could account for nearly a third of Irish electricity consumption by the end of this year.

Breana Wheeler, US Director of Operations at BREEAM, framed the tension as follows:

Communities are already responding. Wheeler noted that roughly $64 billion in data centre development projects have been halted by local opposition.

An infrastructure bottleneck aviation cannot ignore

Tom Sisto, CEO of XL Batteries, laid out a series of infrastructure constraints. The current lead time for a GE gas turbine, he told the audience, is now seven years. Grid interconnection queues stretch to seven to twelve years, depending on the region.

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s data confirms this: In the US, the median time for an energy project to move from interconnection request to commercial operation has grown from under two years in 2008 to nearly five years today. More than 2,300 gigawatts of generation and storage capacity are actively waiting for grid connection — nearly double the entire US installed generating fleet. Google has reportedly faced potential grid connection delays of up to 12 years for new data centres.

That has led data centres and big tech to bring their own power, adopt new technologies and island themselves off from electricity grids, “They’ve hit the wall and cannot continue status quo,” he said. “They have to try new technologies, they have to get creative.”

These, however, are the same renewable electricity resources, the same grid capacity, the same battery storage, geothermal and nuclear technologies that aviation needs in its quest to decarbonise. Big tech is now pursuing them, having the advantage of deeper pockets and faster timelines.

For SAF producers and airport operators trying to secure long-term clean energy contracts, this is the competitive landscape they are now entering.

From supersonic aircraft to data centre gas turbines

Perhaps nothing illustrates where the money is flowing better than Boom Supersonic’s recent pivot.

The company, originally founded to build a supersonic airliner, announced in December 2025 that it would sell 1.21 gigawatts of natural gas turbines to AI data centre developer Crusoe. Boom’s “Superpower” turbine, a 42-megawatt unit based on jet-engine technology, already has a reported backlog exceeding $1.25 billion.

As the ICCT’s Dan Rutherford observed, this represents a company that has moved from aircraft manufacturer to engine OEM, to AI data centre energy provider. All while its end-of-2026 deadline to begin producing aircraft at its North Carolina factory approaches, along with the 1,750 jobs promised in exchange for $200 million in state incentives.

Could a rising tide lift aviation’s boats?

But rather than framing big tech’s renewable energy grab as purely a threat, there is a more nuanced reading.

That’s because, in addition to consuming clean energy, big tech is also bankrolling the next generation of it, much of which is directly relevant to aviation.

To take one example, nuclear energy, which, as we outlined in a recent article, could provide a route to cheaper synthetic fuels.

Google has signed a 500-megawatt SMR deal with Kairos Power, with the first reactor targeted for 2030. Amazon has backed 5 gigawatts of X-energy SMR projects and invested $500 million in the company’s reactor design and fuel fabrication. Microsoft has signed a 20-year deal to restart the Three Mile Island Unit 1 reactor in the US, delivering over 800 megawatts of clean baseload power. Meta has issued a request for proposals seeking 1-4 gigawatts of new nuclear generation.

The pattern holds for batteries, too. XL Batteries, one of the SXSW panellists, is commercialising long-duration organic flow battery storage that avoids lithium entirely. Data centres need it for grid stability; airports need it for exactly the same reason, as the Heathrow substation fire in March 2025 made clear.

Then there is waste heat. Breana Wheeler described how AI data centres generate massive amounts of it. A recent paper from the Kleinman Center for Energy Policy explored co-locating data centres with direct air capture facilities, using waste heat to power the CO2 regeneration that DAC requires. Given that DAC is essential both as a CO2 source for synthetic aviation fuels and for addressing residual emissions, pairing it with data centre infrastructure is an idea worth considering.

Overall, tens of billions of dollars are flowing into technologies that our January 2026 report identified as critical to aviation’s decarbonisation over the 2030s. If data centre demand drives those costs down the same curve that solar followed, airports and e-fuel producers stand to benefit.

What this means for aviation

Aviation cannot outbid big tech for clean energy. But it can position itself to ride the cost curves that tech investment is creating. That means airports thinking seriously about on-site energy storage and microgrids. It means SAF producers tracking geothermal, nuclear, and battery cost trajectories as closely as they track feedstock prices. And it means the industry engaging with the data centre energy buildout as a strategic factor in its own decarbonisation planning.

Industry Updates

• American Airlines cut contrails by 62% with Google AI - Aerospace Global News

American Airlines and Google cut contrail formation by 62% across 2,400 transatlantic flights using AI rerouting, reducing warming impact by up to 69% with no statistically significant increase in fuel burn.

• Singapore defers introduction of SAF levy due to Middle East conflict – GreenAir News

Singapore’s CAAS deferred its SAF Levy from April 2026 to October, pushing the 1% SAF mandate back to 2027, citing the ongoing Middle East conflict’s disruption to aviation fuel markets.

• EU Must Review EU ETS to Support Competitiveness as Aviation Decarbonises - IATA

IATA has called on the EU to reform its Emissions Trading System, urging full CORSIA implementation for all international flights, a SAF book-and-claim mechanism under the ETS, and reinvestment of ETS revenues into decarbonisation.

• European airlines call on EU to lower carbon pricing and SAF costs – GreenAir News

Airlines for Europe told the EU that aviation regulatory costs have tripled since 2014 to €15.5 billion annually, demanding ETS costs align with CORSIA and calling for the eSAF sub-mandate to be postponed.

• JAL becomes the first commercial airline to retire large-scale Gold Standard CORSIA credits – GreenAir News

Japan Airlines became the first commercial airline to make a large-scale retirement of Gold Standard CORSIA credits, surrendering 180,000 EEUs sourced from cookstove projects in Malawi and Tanzania, retired via Shell.

• Sustainable Aviation launches £2m greenhouse gas removals initiative to tackle aviation’s net zero gap - Aerospace Global News

UK aviation body Sustainable Aviation launched a £2 million Advanced Market Signal at the Sustainable Skies World Summit, committing members to purchase greenhouse gas removal credits to help scale nascent CDR markets for aviation’s net zero gap.

• Air travel demand set to double by 2050, IATA forecasts - Aerospace Global News

IATA projected global air travel will exceed 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometres by 2050 — more than double 2024 levels — at a 3.1% annual growth rate, with Asia-Pacific (3.8%) and Africa (3.6%) leading growth.

• OMV supports Europe’s unique research infrastructure for SAF at the Technical University of Leoben - Biodiesel Magazine

OMV and Technical University of Leoben have established a one-of-a-kind research SAF research facility, to study sustainable aviation fuels using simulation methods and machine learning to support development and scale-up.

• British Airways Proposes Bonus for Pilots Who Burn Less Fuel - Bloomberg

British Airways has proposed a pilot bonus, worth up to 1% of basic salary, contingent on crews collectively cutting CO2 emissions by 60,000 tonnes above 2025 levels, with a British Airline Pilots’ Association vote scheduled for late April.

Infrastructure and operational efficiencies

• Fraport secures €2.55m in EU funding for ground power and charging infrastructure project - Passenger Terminal Today

Fraport secured €2.55 million in EU CEF funding for Frankfurt Airport’s Greenvolt project, covering 322 new EV charging points, ground power upgrades at nine remote aircraft stands, and battery storage linked to runway solar panels.

• How Frankfurt Airport is making the energy transition real - International Airport Review

Fraport secured a 15-year, 85-megawatt offshore wind PPA with EnBW’s He Dreiht wind farm from mid-2026, complemented by a 17.4 MWp vertical photovoltaic installation along Runway 18 West, targeting net zero Scope 1 and 2 by 2045.

• Waste and Carbon Emissions Are Down at Heathrow Airport - InsideHook

Heathrow’s 2025 sustainability report showed aircraft emissions fell 7% from 2019 levels, ground carbon emissions dropped 18%, overall waste reduced 3%, and 3.1% of departing flights used sustainable aviation fuel.

• Miami airport expansion boosts capacity and sustainability - Capital Analytics Associates

Miami International Airport and American Airlines are developing a $1 billion Concourse D60 expansion adding 17 new gates, breaking ground in 2027 and completing by 2030, as part of Miami-Dade’s wider $9 billion M.I.A. Plan.

• Leeds Bradford Airport unveils bold new strategy linking transformative growth with sustainability - Airport Suppliers

Leeds Bradford Airport launched its “Together for Tomorrow” sustainability strategy, targeting Scope 1 and 2 net zero by 2030, backed by a £200 million terminal transformation and building on a 74% emissions reduction achieved since 2018.

• Cologne Bonn Airport recieves significant funding for sustainability projects - Regional Gateway

Cologne Bonn Airport is investing €33.25 million across five sustainability projects — including 38 EV chargers, 16 pre-conditioned air units, and 15 electric ground power units — supported by €9.75 million in EU CEF funding, targeting 6,000 tonnes of annual CO₂ savings.

• How airports are accelerating the energy revolution - International Airport Review

Venice Airport, San Francisco International, and Frankfurt’s Fraport outlined distinct energy strategies — agrivoltaic solar, full GSE electrification with 500 charging ports, and an 85 MW offshore wind PPA — at an International Airport Review webinar.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

• Octopus Energy backs billion-dollar biomass-to-SAF project in Nova Scotia - Bioenergy Insight Magazine

Octopus Energy Generation is planning up to $6 billion investment in a Nova Scotia biomass-to-SAF facility at Goldboro, producing 165,000 tonnes of SAF annually from 750,000 tonnes of forestry waste for European markets, targeting 2031 operations.

• EcoCeres and Chinese aviation partners launch SAF pilot program in China - Biomass Magazine

EcoCeres launched “Project Spark” SAF pilot in China with five aviation partners, using Zhangjiagang-produced waste-based SAF to refuel commercial flights at Chengdu Shuangliu Airport on 16 March, with credits tracked via the AnchorTrace platform.

• Praj Industries Pivots Biofuel Strategy to Boost India's Energy Security - Whalesbook

Praj Industries is expanding India’s biofuel ecosystem beyond ethanol into SAF and compressed biogas through integrated biorefineries, as India’s 85% crude oil import dependency intensifies the push for domestic alternatives amid geopolitical tensions.

• SAF Coalition’s second annual DC Fly-In brings together 50-plus organizations to advance American energy independence - Biodiesel Magazine

More than 50 organisations from the SAF Coalition gathered on Capitol Hill on 25 March to advocate for policy support, following a year in which US domestic SAF production more than doubled.

• Rolls-Royce eyes nuclear reactor heat to power sustainable jet fuel production - MSN

Rolls-Royce has partnered with UK firm Equilibrion to explore using its small modular reactors to produce sustainable aviation fuel at commercial scale, offering a reliable, low-carbon alternative to intermittent renewables for energy-intensive SAF synthesis.

• Zeldin confirms RFS rule will be finalised in March - Biomass Magazine

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin confirmed the Renewable Fuel Standard “Set 2” rule would be finalised in March 2026, after its delivery to the White House Office of Management and Budget on 25 February following a public comment period.

• XCF Global highlights the case for domestic SAF - Biomass Magazine

Middle East conflict drove California SAF prices to a record $8.85 per gallon in early March as Strait of Hormuz tanker flows were disrupted, prompting US producer XCF Global to advocate for domestic waste-based SAF as an energy security solution.

• SAFA urges government to use used cooking oil for sustainable aviation fuel - BioEnergy Times

India’s SAF Association urged the Ministry of Petroleum to include used cooking oil under the Extended Producer Responsibility framework, arguing that capturing 15% of commercial UCO could meaningfully boost domestic sustainable aviation fuel production.

• Universal Fuel Technologies demonstrates fully drop-in SAF using HEFA byproducts - Biomass Magazine

Washington State University validated Universal Fuel Technologies’ Flexiforming process, which converts HEFA naphtha byproduct into aromatic kerosene; a 16:84 blend with HEFA SAF met all jet fuel performance standards without any fossil-based blending.

• Technip Energies buys stake in green hydrogen-based e-SAF project in France - Hydrogen Insight

Technip Energies has acquired a stake in Verso Energy’s DEZiR project, a green hydrogen-based e-SAF facility in France expected to produce 80,000 tonnes of synthetic aviation fuel annually when it starts operations in 2030.

• Southern Energy announces $1.4B methanol, sustainable aviation fuel facility - TipRanks

Southern Energy Renewables announced a $1.4 billion biomass-to-green methanol and SAF facility in Louisiana’s St. Charles Parish, converting wood-waste into fuel and creating 120 direct jobs averaging $97,267, plus 394 indirect positions.

• DHL Express partners with Malaysia Aviation Group to reduce GHG emissions using SAF - Biomass Magazine

DHL Express partnered with Malaysia Aviation Group to reduce cargo emissions using book-and-claim SAF, building on MAG’s 2025 two-week SAF trial uplift on the Kuala Lumpur–London route at KLIA.

• From fission to fusion: The long game for clean jet fuel - SimpliFlying

A SXSW 2026 fusion panel projected commercial fusion power arriving in the 2040s — precisely when power-to-liquid SAF must scale — while noting SHINE Technologies already uses fusion neutrons commercially to inspect jet engine turbine blades.

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New technology: Electric and Hydrogen

• Airbus Greenlights 100 Seat Hydrogen Regional Jet After Feasibility Success - AeroXplorer.com

Airbus has confirmed technical feasibility of its ZEROe 100-seat hydrogen fuel cell regional jet, featuring four 2-megawatt under-wing pods running on liquid hydrogen at –253°C, with entry into service targeted for 2040–2045.

• Eve flies full-scale eVTOL prototype for Brazilian government - Aerospace Testing International

Eve Air Mobility flew its full-scale eVTOL prototype for Brazilian President Lula da Silva at Embraer’s Gavião Peixoto facility, having logged 35 flights and nearly 1.5 hours of total flight time since its December 2025 maiden hover.

• 3M partners with JetZero to reshape aviation - 3M

3M announced an investment and collaboration with JetZero to develop a blended-wing aircraft aiming to reduce fuel use by up to 50%.

• Joby Completes Piloted Electric Air Taxi Flight Across San Francisco Bay and Around the Golden Gate - Joby Aviation

Joby Aviation’s piloted electric air taxi crossed San Francisco Bay and flew past the Golden Gate Bridge on 13 March, launching its 2026 Electric Skies Tour following White House eIPP selection for operations across 10 states.

• FAA Finalises Special Conditions for ZeroAvia’s ZA601 Electric Engine - Aviation International News

The FAA published final special conditions for ZeroAvia’s hydrogen-electric ZA601 engine on 18 March, addressing Part 33 regulatory gaps for electric propulsion, despite ZeroAvia having cut roughly half its workforce in January due to funding shortfalls.

• Loganair flies Beta’s ALIA electric aircraft in UK first - Aerospace Global News

Loganair flew a BETA Technologies ALIA CX300 from Edinburgh to Dundee and then Inverness on 19 March, becoming the first UK commercial airline to operate an all-electric flight, during a two-week Royal Mail freight demonstration.

• Hydrogen-electric aircraft inches closer toward industrial execution, design review completed - Interesting Engineering

French startup Beyond Aero completed the Preliminary Design Review of its hydrogen-electric business jet, confirming that propulsion, hydrogen storage, aerodynamics, and avionics systems have reached the maturity required for a certifiable architecture.

• RTX’s Collins Aerospace announces completion of Clean Aviation Joint Undertaking HECATE project - RTX

Collins Aerospace completed the EU Clean Aviation Joint Undertaking’s HECATE project, achieving Technology Readiness Level 5 for high-voltage electric power distribution systems for hybrid-electric regional aircraft, using digital twin simulations throughout.

• FlyECO and TRIATHLON Partner on Hydrogen Electric Powertrains for Aviation - Fuel Cells Works

EU Horizon Europe aviation projects FlyECO and TRIATHLON signed a non-disclosure agreement to share research data on hydrogen-electric propulsion, with FlyECO combining solid oxide fuel cells and hydrogen-fuelled gas turbines under DLR coordination.

• Cash crunch looms for Vertical as flight testing advances - Zag Daily

Bristol-based eVTOL developer Vertical Aerospace warned its £69 million year-end 2025 cash balance may only last into mid-2026, despite completing hover, vertical, and wingborne piloted flight milestones with its Valo aircraft during 2025.

• Beta Electric Aircraft Will Fly First Customers in Hawaii - Flying Magazine

Surf Air Mobility signed a purchase agreement for 25 BETA Technologies Alia CTOL electric aircraft — with options for 75 more — to launch commercial electric aviation in Hawaii, starting with inter-island cargo before passenger services.

I personally attended the forum, and what follows are the key insights from a day of frank, wide-ranging conversation spanning the European Union’s (EU) aviation strategy, the stubborn gap between innovation and commercialisation, infrastructure investment, sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), and what it will actually take to keep Europe at the front of global aviation over the next decade and beyond.

The EU’s role in strengthening aviation leadership

In a fireside chat that focused on Europe’s position in a rapidly evolving aviation landscape, Magda Kopczyńska, Director-General for Mobility and Transport at the European Commission (EC), reaffirmed Europe’s leadership in aviation, underscoring the region’s continued strength in aviation innovation.

On funding, Kopczyńska pointed to a proposal for two financial instruments aimed at better supporting innovation and scaling. These could sit within the next Horizon Europe program or the European Competitiveness Fund, with the Commission still working through how the two would coexist. The objective, she said, is to accompany companies “from the idea to the full market deployment”. She also pointed to the upcoming publication of a new EU aviation strategy spanning the entire ecosystem: infrastructure, airports, airlines and manufacturers. A formal “call for evidence” is due shortly.

The conversation closed on sustainability. Kopczyńska also emphasised the importance of staying the course on sustainability, pointing to the Sustainable Transport Investment Plan published in November 2025, as a way to boost investment in SAF. She also framed energy independence as an underlying concern for Europe: “This is the dependency that Europe really cannot afford to have for a long time.”

Competitiveness in aviation: policy driver or industry outcome?

The fireside chat was followed by a panel discussion that brought in four additional voices: Rémi Maillard, Executive Vice-President Engineering for Commercial Aircraft and Head of Technology at Airbus; Dorothea von Boxberg, CEO of Brussels Airlines; Christian Kunsch, CEO of Hamburg Airport; and Ivor van Dartel, CEO of Væridion, a European startup developing fully electric regional aircraft.

The gap between invention and commercialisation

When the wider panel convened, van Dartel offered the sharpest diagnosis of why mastering the “Magic Three” is harder than any policy document suggests. The issue, he argued, is not a lack of innovation, but an inability to translate it into commercial success. “Europe invents, America commercialises and China builds,” he said. “We need to commercialise more and we need to build more.”

He also highlighted the scale of the opportunity, particularly in short-haul travel: Europe has nearly 229 million passengers flying on routes below 500 kilometres, compared with just 80 million in the United States.

His argument was ultimately about how innovation is brought to market. Governments, he suggested, need to play a more active role in early demand creation. Drawing on examples from outside aviation, he cited Norway’s electrification of buses and ferries, where public institutions placed the first orders, helping to de-risk investment and unlock private capital.

He also pointed to a deeper structural issue in Europe’s financial system. “Half of the money on the NASDAQ is coming from European investors,” he said, arguing that without a more integrated European capital market, Europe risks continuing to build companies that ultimately grow elsewhere.

Operational gains now; transformational change later

von Boxberg offered a more immediate perspective on decarbonisation. For airlines, she explained, the quick wins sit almost entirely in day-to-day operations: single-engine taxiing, weight reduction wherever it can realistically be found, and aerodynamic improvements that can be applied to existing aircraft. At Brussels Airlines, this approach led to measures like optimising potable water loads by carrying only what is required for each flight rather than adhering to standard fill levels. While individually modest, these steps are practical and add up over time, she said.

She also highlighted the constraints shaping airline decision-making. European carriers, she argued, operate within a regulatory framework that can place them at a disadvantage relative to airlines outside the EU, underscoring the need for a more level playing field to remain competitive.

In terms of investment, von Boxberg was clear that fleet renewal remains the most dependable lever. Newer aircraft reduce fuel burn, affecting both emissions and costs. At the same time, she highlighted the challenge of slow technology cycles: aircraft entering service in the next decade will remain in operation for decades afterwards, emphasising the need to bring forward the next generation more quickly.

Sustainability is the purpose, not the constraint

Maillard pushed back against the framing of sustainability and competitiveness as inherently at odds. At Airbus, he said, the two are fundamentally linked. “Our purpose is to pioneer sustainable aerospace,” he said, emphasising that improving efficiency is central to both environmental performance and business outcomes. Fuel, he noted, remains a primary cost driver for airlines, so reducing consumption strengthens competitiveness while lowering emissions.

He also underlined the scale of change underway. The industry is approaching a new wave of technological disruption, spanning electrification and hybridisation, alongside advances in aerodynamics, materials and industrial systems. The question, in his view, is not whether these shifts will happen, but who will capture their value.

“I think it’s a very defining moment for the aviation industry if we take the right course now,” he said. “That’s the urgency… to take the right decision now that will define our aerospace industry for the coming decades.”

Infrastructure must be built for uncertainty

Hamburg Airport’s Kunsch focused on the realities of long-term infrastructure planning in a period of rapid technological change. Traditional assumptions no longer hold, he argued. Infrastructure designed to last for decades risks becoming outdated far sooner, as new propulsion systems and operating models emerge. “We cannot invest anymore in something that will last for 60 years,” he said, describing a shift towards a more modular approach: smaller, incremental investments that can be adapted as technology matures. While this may increase overall costs, it reduces the risk of locking capital into assets that may need to be replaced within five to ten years.

His broader view was that uncertainty must not become an excuse for inaction. Investment decisions will have to be made with incomplete information, and then revisited as conditions change.

On SAF, Kunsch was direct about the gap between ambition and delivery. He pointed to the disconnect between regulatory signals and industrial readiness: while policy frameworks are in place, the funding required to scale production has not followed at the necessary pace. In Germany, he noted, budgets had been identified but remain insufficient to enable a meaningful ramp-up of industrial capacity. The result is a growing mismatch between targets and supply. “If I set the framework and if I set the directions, then I also need to provide the funding. Otherwise it’s not going to happen,” he said.

The panel closed without easy answers, which is perhaps the most honest outcome for a challenge of this scale. Europe’s aviation sector has clear strengths in research, manufacturing and sustainability ambition; the task now is to translate that into commercial scale and financial momentum.

Meg Gentle has spent her career building energy infrastructure at scale. As a senior executive at Cheniere Energy and later as CEO of Tellurian, she was instrumental in the emergence of the United States as the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) — a transformation that involved deploying over $30 billion into facilities including Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, and Freeport LNG.

Now, as Executive Director at HIF Global, she’s applying that same infrastructure mindset to a very different challenge: producing synthetic fuels from recycled CO2 and renewable energy, and bringing them to the aviation market.

It’s a transition that Gentle describes as a natural evolution rather than a sharp pivot. “Over that time, I really developed this passion for developing new things… Trying to see where energy needs to go and how we can create new markets to make that happen,” she told us. “It was sort of an easy transition to say, all right, now we’ve established the LNG market. What is the future of fuels?”

Here are the key highlights of the conversation:

• How Chile’s wind resource sparked the e-fuels model (3:34)

• How e-fuels are made using hydrogen and captured CO2 (5:37)

• Why methanol offers more flexibility than Fischer-Tropsch fuels (7:15)

• How waste methane becomes sustainable aviation fuel (18:46)

• Why waste-based SAF can beat HEFA on cost and climate impact (20:04)

• Understanding negative carbon intensity and why it matters (23:59)

• Why policy certainty is the biggest hidden challenge in scaling SAF (33:04)

Keep reading for a detailed overview of the episode.

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Starting from Patagonia

That future began taking shape in one of the most remote places on earth. HIF Global’s Haru Oni facility in southern Chile was the world’s first operating e-methanol and e-gasoline plant, taking advantage of Patagonia’s extraordinary wind resource.

The answer was to convert that renewable electricity into transportable liquid fuels. This involves using electrolysers to produce hydrogen, combining it with captured CO2, and synthesising the result into methanol, which can then be converted into gasoline, diesel, marine fuel, or jet fuel.

From Chile, HIF Global has built a portfolio spanning Uruguay, Brazil, Texas, and Australia. Each location was chosen for its combination of low-cost renewable power, access to CO2, and proximity to markets. “We decided the best approach is to have some geographical diversity,” Gentle said, “so that we can provide highly reliable production and access the market from different places.”

Two pathways into aviation

What makes HIF Global’s aviation play distinctive is that they’re pursuing two quite different SAF pathways simultaneously.

• For the European market, where ReFuelEU mandates a synthetic fuel sub-quota from 2030, HIF Global plans to ship e-methanol — likely from their Uruguay project — to European refineries, where it would be converted to jet fuel and blended into existing distribution systems. The company has recently signed offtake agreements with German companies including MB Energy and German eFuel One for e-methanol supply.

• For the US market, however, HIF Global is taking a different approach entirely: RNG-based SAF. Renewable natural gas. Here, methane captured from dairy manure and other waste sources can be converted to jet fuel via Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, and carries extraordinarily low (often deeply negative) carbon intensity scores.

(It’s the RNG-based SAF pathway that is the subject of a working session HIF Global is hosting at CERAWeek this week, examining whether RNG-based SAF can achieve a lower cost of CO2 abatement than HEFA — the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids pathway that currently dominates SAF supply.)

The case for regulatory certainty

When asked about the biggest obstacle to scaling these pathways, Gentle pointed not to technology or capital but to policy stability. “People really underestimate the need for long-term certainty,” she said, advocating for what she calls early mover protection, a guarantee that the regulatory rules in place when a project starts construction will remain stable for 10 to 20 years.

It’s a perspective shaped by decades of building infrastructure where investment decisions are measured in billions and timelines in decades, and it carries particular weight as governments on both sides of the Atlantic navigate the tension between ambitious SAF mandates and the investment certainty producers need to meet them.

Looking ahead

Gentle sees a future where airlines won’t differentiate between HEFA, eSAF, or RNG-based SAF. Instead, they’ll simply purchase aviation fuel rated by its carbon intensity score.

For now, HIF Global is focused on building the value chains to get there — and on making the case, one working session at a time, that the economics of SAF are about to look very different.

Get our new book

Our new book Sustainability in the Air: Volume Two is now available for purchase on Amazon. Learn more about the startups, strategists, and sceptics working to close the gap between growth and green ambition.

‘Sustainability in the Air’ is the world’s leading podcast dedicated to sustainable aviation. Through in-depth conversations with top aviation leaders, we break through the clutter and provide a clear roadmap for a net-zero future.

• Fusion combines light atoms rather than splitting heavy ones. It carries none of the meltdown or long-term waste risks associated with fission.

• Fusion fuel has an energy density roughly 10 million times greater than oil, with effectively limitless raw materials, meaning there is no floor on how cheap the energy could eventually become.

• Commercial fusion power is most credibly projected for the 2040s, which is precisely when SAF production needs to scale from millions to billions of litres.

• Fusion is already in use in aviation: SHINE Technologies uses fusion-generated neutrons to inspect jet engine turbine blades for defects invisible to X-rays.

• Plan for fission now. Keep fusion in your peripheral vision.

Last week, we made the case that small modular nuclear reactors could provide the always-on, low-carbon electricity that power-to-liquid SAF production demands. That piece was about what fission can deliver within the next decade. This is about what comes after.

At SXSW 2026, a panel titled “The Great Fusion Debate: How Far Away Are We Really?” brought together Greg Piefer, founder and CEO of SHINE Technologies, one of the few companies already generating commercial revenue from fusion; Dr Melanie Windridge, founder of Fusion Energy Insights; and Luke Ward, investment manager at Baillie Gifford. It was moderated by Jacob Goldstein, podcast host and author at Pushkin Industries.

Two ways to go nuclear

First, a quick explanation. The small modular reactors in last week’s piece are fission reactors, which split heavy atoms (such as uranium) to release energy. This is the same process that has powered conventional nuclear plants for decades, miniaturised and modernised.

Crucially, fusion avoids the two risks that have defined public anxiety about nuclear power. There is no possibility of a runaway chain reaction (the Chernobyl scenario), and no long-lived radioactive waste requiring storage for thousands of years. As Piefer put it, fusion is nuclear energy, but without the core risks of fission.

But the catch is formidable. Confining plasma at temperatures exceeding 100 million degrees remains one of humanity’s hardest engineering challenges. Despite decades of research and billions in private investment — Commonwealth Fusion Systems alone has raised over $2 billion — no fusion reactor has produced commercial electricity.

Fusion is already in aviation

Before getting to the long-term energy vision, it is worth noting that fusion technology is already touching aviation in a very specific way.

Piefer described how SHINE, via its Phoenix Imaging Center, uses neutrons generated by fusion reactions to inspect modern jet engine turbine blades. These blades operate above their own melting point, kept intact by intricate internal cooling channels through which compressed cold air is pumped. Manufacturing defects in those channels, invisible to conventional X-rays, can cause catastrophic engine failure. Fusion-generated neutrons can see what X-rays cannot, and SHINE is already selling this service to defence and aerospace customers.

It is a niche application, but it makes an important point: fusion’s value to aviation is already being proven through its by-products, before electricity even enters the frame.

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10 million to one

For power-to-liquid SAF, where each tonne of e-kerosene requires 30 to 50 megawatt-hours of electricity, the cost of energy is everything. Fusion can potentially transform the economics of making it.

Windridge reinforced the point from the supply side: Fusion fuel from deuterium in seawater, with lithium for breeding, is so abundant that fuel cost is unlikely to constrain long‑term fusion economics; instead, overall costs will be driven mainly by the complexity and capital cost of reactors, blankets, and supporting infrastructure. Piefer compared the trajectory to semiconductors: an industry that has seen trillions of times improvement in cost performance over 70 years, driven by the same principle of near-unlimited scalability.

But when?

The panel converged on a rough timeline: energy breakeven by the early 2030s, first electricity by the mid-2030s, and commercial rollout beginning in the 2040s.

All three acknowledged the old joke that fusion is always 20 years away, but argued the landscape has fundamentally changed. A decade ago, the sector was dominated by government-funded megaprojects like ITER, a machine Windridge described as the size of a cathedral, when we want something more the size of a church.

Today, private companies with commercial discipline are building smaller, asking how to reach profitability, and generating revenue along the way from intermediate products like medical isotopes and superconducting magnets. SHINE is already building a half-billion-dollar facility to produce 20 million doses of medical isotopes per year using fusion-generated neutrons.

Ward drew a useful comparison to SpaceX: the ambition is Mars, but the business runs on commercialising low Earth orbit. Fusion companies need the same kind of stepping-stone economics to fund the journey to grid-scale power. The consensus was that fusion will be commercially useful — in medicine, inspection, and materials — long before it produces electricity at scale.

What this means for SAF

The timeline matters because of where aviation’s mandates are heading. The EU’s SAF obligation ramps to 70% by 2050, with a dedicated sub-mandate for e-fuels. The UK’s PtL targets reach their full ambition in the same period. Meeting those volumes will require clean electricity at a scale and cost that intermittent renewables alone are unlikely to provide.

And where fission can already offer SAF producers pink hydrogen competitive with green hydrogen, fusion’s promise is an energy source that keeps getting cheaper with no fuel-cost floor. That is the trajectory that could eventually bring e-kerosene within reach of price parity with conventional jet fuel.

Engage early

Windridge’s parting advice? In every major energy transition, the people who engaged early were the ones who did best. The risk with fusion is that it arrives, and your industry is not ready.

Ward’s closing remark landed the same point from a different angle: innovation has to be better and cheaper than its predecessors at scale. That principle applies equally to the reactor and the fuel it produces.

For anyone in aviation watching the PtL space: plan for fission now. But keep fusion in your peripheral vision. The technology that powers the first wave of nuclear SAF plants may not be the technology powering them in 2050.

Here are the key highlights of the conversation:

• Ryanair’s 12.5% SAF target for 2030 (4:04)

• Balancing growth with emissions intensity (8:30)

• Building a SAF supplier ecosystem (12:52)

• Trinity College partnership and SAF pre-certification (16:17)

• Navigating 1G, 2G and 3G SAF and the FEETs mechanism (20:54)

• What it would take to turbocharge SAF development (27:24)

• Rapid Fire! (41:08)

Keep reading for a detailed overview of the episode.

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Why Ryanair set SAF targets before EU mandates existed

When Ryanair set its 12.5% SAF target for 2030 around five years ago, the EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation regulation had yet to be introduced. The airline’s decision reflected a strategic bet on market signals rather than regulatory compliance.

“We set that 12.5% target about five years ago, before any SAF mandate in Europe,” Fitzgerald explains. “We see SAF as the most scalable decarbonisation solution for aviation. At the time, however, production wasn’t ramping up fast enough, so it was important to send a clear signal that long-term demand would be there.”

At its core, the decision addressed a classic coordination problem: SAF producers need long-term offtake agreements to justify capital-intensive investments, while airlines are reluctant to commit without clarity on supply and pricing. By setting a public target, Ryanair sought to signal credible future demand and help catalyse SAF supply.

However, the SAF market has evolved more slowly than anticipated, which could make it challenging for the airline to meet its SAF target, says Fitzgerald. “There are still elements of that target at risk, as the SAF market in Europe hasn’t developed as we expected five years ago. So challenges will arise as we work to meet it.”

4 takeaways from the conversation

1. Applying the low-cost discipline to fuel efficiency

SAF alone will not get Ryanair to its emissions targets, says Fitzgerald. The airline’s SBTi-validated goal is to reduce CO2 per passenger kilometre by 27% by 2031, bringing it down to 48 grams.

Beyond fleet, Ryanair is retrofitting its 737 NG aircraft with Split Scimitar Winglets, which could reduce the Irish airline’s carbon emissions by around 165,000 tonnes of CO2 annually. The carrier is also adopting variable cost index flight planning, and increasing the use of ground power units to reduce fuel burn on the ground.

2. Building a SAF supplier ecosystem

Ryanair’s SAF procurement strategy is built around scale and competition. Its annual tender process sees up to 40 suppliers compete to deliver volumes across more than 220 airports in 36 countries, says Fitzgerald.

He also outlines the three criteria Ryanair uses to evaluate SAF partners:

• Credibility: proven track record in renewable fuels, often drawing on experience from the road fuel sector

• Scale: how well a supplier aligns with Ryanair’s network, especially in key markets

• Ambition: a commitment to developing advanced SAF pathways beyond conventional HEFA

Ryanair’s partnership with Northern Ireland-based Catagen, illustrates its emphasis on diverse SAF pathways. Through its patented modular reactor technology, Catagen aims to produce SAF from waste biomass at distributed locations, closer to airports and renewable energy sources.

Diversification across suppliers also serves a commercial purpose. By maintaining a broad supplier base, Ryanair aims to reduce supply risk and introduce competitive pressure on pricing as the SAF market develops.

3. Investing in research that benefits the whole industry

In 2024, Ryanair extended its research partnership with Trinity College Dublin through to the end of the decade, committing a further €2.5 million to fund the Ryanair Sustainable Aviation Research Centre, bringing total funding to €4 million.

Launched in 2021 with an initial €1.5 million investment, the research centre focuses on advancing sustainable aviation through research into SAF, zero-carbon propulsion technologies and non-CO2 emissions.

This significantly reduces the cost and volume required for early-stage testing, making it easier for new SAF pathways to enter certification. By identifying viable candidates early, the tool also helps streamline development and lowers the risk for producers working on emerging technologies.

Trinity’s research also looks at lifecycle emissions across SAF supply chains, including the impact of transporting feedstocks and fuels over long distances. The aim is to better understand how much of the claimed emissions benefit holds up across the full value chain.

4. Advocating for smarter policy, not less regulation

As SAF mandates begin to take effect, Ryanair’s attention has shifted from compliance to policy design. The key question is whether current mechanisms, especially within the EU-ETS, are strong enough to support real market growth.

Under the FEETS (Fuels Eligible under ETS) mechanism, in principle, airlines that procure power-to-liquid SAF at European airports can recover up to 95% of the price premium through ETS allowances, says Fitzgerald. In practice, however, the uptake remains limited. Of the 20 million allowances available this decade under FEETS, only a small fraction has been used, largely because third-generation SAF is not yet available at commercial scale.

“If [airlines] had the assurance that FEETs would support them [long-term], I think it could really turbocharge SAF production.”

Alongside this, revenue certainty mechanisms under development in the UK, and being considered in the EU, could help de-risk investment by providing greater price clarity for producers. However, Fitzgerald notes that this has also created a wait-and-see dynamic, with some market participants delaying long-term commitments until the details are finalised.

Ryanair’s approach shows that even the most cost-sensitive airlines are willing to engage with SAF. The constraint is no longer willingness, but availability, and the industry’s ability to scale supply without breaking its economics.

Get our new book

Our new book Sustainability in the Air: Volume Two is now available for purchase on Amazon. Learn more about the startups, strategists, and sceptics working to close the gap between growth and green ambition.

‘Sustainability in the Air’ is the world’s leading podcast dedicated to sustainable aviation. Through in-depth conversations with top aviation leaders, we break through the clutter and provide a clear roadmap for a net-zero future.