Every year, we survey airline sustainability teams to take the pulse of where the industry actually stands. The result is our annual Sustainable Aviation Outlook report, one of the few publications grounded entirely in primary data from airlines, giving sustainability leaders an honest benchmark of industry efforts.

This Earth Day, we’re releasing the third edition of our Sustainable Aviation Outlook report, based on insights from 26 airlines across six continents.

What’s new in 2026

• A first look at how airlines are preparing for CORSIA Phase 1 compliance, and the challenges that remain

• Insights into the regulatory landscape shaping SAF, from ReFuelEU and UK mandates to regional policies

• How airlines actually plan to meet SAF requirements through 2030, from direct fuel purchases to Book and Claim, offsets, long-term agreements, and investment in production

• A new digital format, with the report also made available as a structured web experience for easier navigation

Access the full report

Five focus areas for airlines to accelerate sustainability progress

• Build CORSIA and SAF compliance infrastructure before Phase 2 extends offsetting requirements to all international flights in 2027.

• Secure diversified SAF supply through long-term offtake agreements, direct investment, and supply chain partnerships.

• Strengthen accountability by linking sustainability KPIs to executive compensation and operational targets.

• Communicate with precision to build stakeholder trust while meeting increasingly strict regulatory requirements for environmental claims.

• Collaborate at industry level on shared challenges, particularly SAF supply development and compliance standard-setting, where individual airline action has limited impact.

About the survey

SimpliFlying’s third annual Sustainable Aviation Outlook Survey was completed by 26 airlines, our largest and most geographically diverse cohort to date. Participating airlines include Emirates, All Nippon Airways, Finnair, Virgin Australia, Turkish Airlines, Lufthansa Group, and many more

The survey covered six dimensions: team structure, strategy and reporting, sustainability initiatives, sustainable aviation fuel, perception and communication, and budget and investment. Each dimension draws on three years of longitudinal data, to provide a status update and actionable recommendations for the year ahead.

Industry Updates

• Scheme launched to provide independent verification of SAF traceability in the UK – GreenAir News

The Zemo Partnership has launched a voluntary assurance scheme for SAF traceability in the UK, with Valero as the first approved supplier, enabling verified emissions claims under the UK ETS.

• UK ‘green’ jet fuel imports linked to illegal Amazon deforestation - Unearthed

A major SAF supplier to the UK has been sourcing Brazilian beef fat linked to illegal Amazon deforestation, revealing a critical traceability gap in the green fuel supply chain.

• Delta quietly removes its net-zero 2030 goal as airlines worldwide abandon climate promises - Los Angeles Times

Delta Air Lines has quietly removed its 10% SAF pledge by 2030 from its website, rephrasing its net-zero target as an “aspiration” rather than a goal.

• Scoot, Qatar, and Ryanair top Cirium global airline emissions rankings in 2025 - Cirium

Scoot has been named the world’s most emissions-efficient airline by Cirium, with low-cost carriers dominating the top rankings due to younger fleets and higher seat density.

Infrastructure and operational efficiencies

• Noida International Airport revolutionises sustainability with cold roll forming technology - Science-Environment

Noida International Airport has installed over 6,000 furniture units made using cold roll forming technology, achieving 66% recyclability and setting a new benchmark for sustainable infrastructure.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

• EU eSAF projects stall as price forecasts fall and rules in question - S&P Global

High capital costs and a steeply falling price curve have delayed investment decisions for dozens of eSAF projects, as early movers risk becoming uncompetitive within years.

• Boeing and Norsk e-Fuel expand efforts to advance e-fuels - Boeing

Boeing has expanded its collaboration with Norsk e-Fuel to accelerate synthetic aviation fuel production, aiming to strengthen Europe’s energy resilience and reduce fossil fuel dependency.

• Metafuels secures major Dutch government grant to support eSAF project – GreenAir News

Metafuels has secured a €1.92 million Dutch government grant to advance its eSAF project in Rotterdam, targeting commercial production from 2030 using its methanol-to-jet technology.

• eFuels SEA launches platform to develop eFuels projects across Southeast Asia using Infinium technology - Morningstar

eFuels SEA has launched in Singapore to develop electrofuel projects across Southeast Asia, licensing Infinium’s technology to convert carbon dioxide and renewable power into sustainable fuels.

• DSV collaborates with Microsoft, United Airlines and Phillips 66 to unlock 11 million gallons of sustainable aviation fuel - DSV

DSV has collaborated with Microsoft, United Airlines and Phillips 66 to unlock 11 million gallons of SAF, demonstrating how coordinated long-term agreements can scale the market effectively.

• DHL joins top three global SAF purchasers as it triples use of SAF in 2025 – GreenAir News

DHL used 185 kilotonnes of SAF in 2025, nearly tripling its consumption from 2024, and has signed a new five-year agreement with IAG Cargo for 240 million litres at Heathrow.

• Wisconsin enacts landmark legislation to further SAF production - NBAA

Wisconsin has signed a bill creating a manufacturing zone for SAF from woody biomass, allocating up to $120 million in tax credits for production using locally sourced forestry residues.

• SABA selects Infinium and American Airlines for next-generation SAF procurement award – GreenAir News

The Sustainable Aviation Buyers Alliance has selected Infinium’s Project Atlas to supply SAF certificates, with a planned capacity of 100,000 tonnes per year targeting 95% emissions reduction.

• California Senate subcommittee hears testimony on proposed SAF tax credit - Biodiesel Magazine

California’s Senate budget subcommittee has heard testimony on Governor Newsom’s proposed SAF tax credit, worth $1 to $2 per gallon, despite opposition from the state’s Legislative Analyst’s Office.

• Petrobas picks Honeywell technology for SAF project in Brazil - Biofuels International Magazine

Petrobras has selected Honeywell’s ethanol-to-jet technology for a new SAF project at its REPLAN refinery in São Paulo, aiming to deliver up to 10,000 barrels per day.

New technology: Electric and Hydrogen

• Beyond Aero selects Luxaviation as launch operator for hydrogen-electric aircraft - Business Airport International

Beyond Aero has appointed Luxaviation Group as the launch operator for its six-passenger hydrogen-electric business aircraft, focusing on operational readiness and certification pathways.

• Elysian Aircraft modifies design of EX9 electric regional airliner - Aviation International News

Elysian Aircraft has reduced the number of electric motors on its E9X regional airliner concept from eight to six following its conceptual design review and scaled demonstrator flights.

• BETA reaches deal for electric aircraft in Hawaii - WCAX

Beta Technologies has reached a deal to sell 25 Alia electric aircraft to Surf Air, with an option for 75 more, starting operations in Hawaii to cut fuel costs and emissions.

• South Florida “flying car” manufacturer debuts latest concept - MSN

Doroni Aerospace has debuted its luxury personal eVTOL concept, designed to seat two passengers and reach 120mph, with testing planned for 2027 and a projected price of $450,000.

• Air Products scales U.S. green hydrogen network to support transportation and industrial end-users - Energies Media

Air Products has cancelled three U.S. hydrogen projects, including a SAF expansion in California, taking a $3.1 billion charge as it narrows its focus to scalable transport and industrial infrastructure.

Montana Renewables (MRL) is an unrestricted subsidiary of Calumet, which developed the business by converting a portion of its crude oil refinery in Great Falls, Montana. The facility now processes a range of feedstocks, including used cooking oil, agricultural waste and emerging crops, into SAF, renewable diesel and renewable hydrogen.

Here are the key highlights of the conversation:

• Montana Renewables’ origin and the retrofit model (2:48)

• Scaling from 30M to 300M gallons: what it actually involves (7:54)

• The policy landscape and why private capital has withdrawn (10:05)

• Feedstock agnosticism and the camelina case (22:16)

• Why the EU’s RFNBO mandate is “preposterous” (28:54)

• The case for fuelling general aviation first (38:30)

• The SAF industry in 2035 and beyond (45:16)

• Rapid Fire! (48:31)

Keep reading for a detailed overview of the episode.

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Why parallel refinery systems matter for scaling SAF production

Much of the current momentum around SAF production has focused on new, purpose-built plants. Montana Renewables took a different route. Instead of starting from scratch, it reconfigured part of an existing refinery, and adapted established infrastructure to process renewable feedstocks.

The capital case for this approach is obvious. A retrofit costs significantly less than a greenfield build: the site, civil works, safety systems and workforce are already in place. Moreover, if a large refinery converts entirely to renewable operations, the overall transportation fuel output can fall sharply, says Fleming.

MRL avoided that trade-off by operating two distinct businesses on the same site: a conventional refinery alongside a separate renewables line, supported by a shared workforce and common operating standards.

Fleming positions MRL’s approach as a model that could be applied wherever suitable refinery infrastructure already exists:

4 ways Montana Renewables is redefining SAF production

1. The retrofit model at commercial scale

Montana Renewables operates two distinct but co-located operations at its Great Falls site: a conventional crude oil refinery and a renewables facility.

The facility is currently permitted to process about 250 million gallons of renewable feedstock annually, with plans to expand that to roughly 300 million gallons. This increase requires only a modest uptick in overall throughput, with the more meaningful change coming from optimising the product mix, explains Fleming.

With nearly four years of operating experience, the company has also identified specific constraints and bottlenecks in its process. While MRL’s current economic SAF yield is around 50 million gallons per year, it expects to increase this output by reconfiguring the process to favour SAF, rather than materially increasing total input.

“Depending on market conditions and demand, we have the flexibility to tailor the output so that up to 90% of the feedstocks come back as SAF,” says Fleming.

2. Feedstock agnosticism

MRL can process a wide range of inputs: used cooking oil, conventional vegetable crops, agricultural waste and emerging cover crops. Fleming describes these feedstocks as largely interchangeable from an operator’s perspective. Each requires pre-treatment and careful handling through a sensitive catalytic process, but the choice between them is driven by economics rather than technical constraints. If a buyer specifies a particular feedstock, the company can accommodate it; the added constraint is simply reflected in the price.

“We don’t care what feedstock we put into the machine. All of these are essentially interchangeable to an operator like us.”

Fleming uses this to challenge a common concern in SAF debates: that scaling production will compete with food for land. His view is that agricultural productivity in North America has increased faster than food demand for decades, leaving more land available. In that context, he sees the food-versus-fuel framing as an oversimplification of a more dynamic system.

3. Why policy volatility is limiting capital for SAF

Fleming expresses concern around feedstock regulations. Supply chains, he argues, take years to adjust. Once a jurisdiction restricts which feedstocks can be used for specific applications, commercial operators, including growers, transporters, and producers, adjust their supply chains to work around those limits.

“You cannot over-constrain an industry that is still in an experimental phase by micromanaging which feedstocks are allowed for targeted applications.”

The result is that global supply still meets demand, but through longer and more costly routes. Feedstocks are re-routed across regions and end uses to comply with local rules, often through longer and less efficient pathways. That added complexity feeds directly into higher costs and weaker economics. This also affects investments significantly.

Fuel infrastructure requires capital commitments over decades, yet the regulatory frameworks governing SAF continue to evolve on much shorter timelines. Incentives such as US producer tax credits and Renewable Identification Number (RIN) markets, alongside parallel schemes in other regions, are all evolving, often without coordination.

“Without policy stability over a decade or more, investment will not extend beyond early-stage seed capital,” he explains. In practice, that leaves early-stage venture capital as the dominant source of funding, while large-scale projects struggle to secure financing.

4. Book-and-claim can materially reduce SAF costs

Fleming is a strong advocate for book-and-claim, framing it as a logistical solution rather than a purely accounting mechanism.

Today, SAF transactions are often constrained by requirements around traceability and physical linkage, which can result in fuel being transported over long distances to match specific buyers.

Book-and-claim separates the two. The fuel is delivered wherever it is most efficient to do so, while the associated emissions reduction is allocated to the buyer through a certificate.

“The difference is about a dollar per gallon in the finished fuel, if I can avoid transporting materials across the country by truck and rail, which is inefficient, and instead use pipelines, which are more efficient.” At scale, that cost differential becomes significant; a structural efficiency gain rather than a marginal improvement.

Overall, Montana renewables’ approach points to a pragmatic route for SAF scale: build on existing infrastructure, retain flexibility, and align policy with investment timelines. Without that stability, the industry risks slowing just as it begins to prove what is possible.

Get our new book

Our new book Sustainability in the Air: Volume Two is now available for purchase on Amazon. Learn more about the startups, strategists, and sceptics working to close the gap between growth and green ambition.

‘Sustainability in the Air’ is the world’s leading podcast dedicated to sustainable aviation. Through in-depth conversations with top aviation leaders, we break through the clutter and provide a clear roadmap for a net-zero future.

• Uzbekistan’s $6 billion SAF mega-project could make Central Asia a world leading production hub, challenging US/Europe/Middle East dominance.

• The project is hybrid AtJ (sorghum/camelina ethanol) + e-SAF (biogenic CO2 + 2.4GW green H2) targeting 400k+ tonnes/year SAF.

• It is backed by Presidential Decree, while the country has cheap solar (300 sunny days) and low costs. However challenges include feedstock scale, water limits and double-landlocked logistics hurdles.

• Central thesis: Conventional SAF hotspots may not completely define future production; regions with cheaper inputs could reshape geography despite logistics.

• As mandates grow in demand markets, regions like Uzbekistan might outcompete proximity if transport premiums stay manageable.

When the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry maps out where large-scale production will happen, the names usually cited include places like Texas, Spain, the UAE and Chile.

One name you normally don’t hear mentioned is Uzbekistan.

Thats about to change, following the announcement of a $6 billion project, that, if realised, will become one of the world’s biggest SAF projects, with fuel produced at an industrial scale via both the alcohol-to-jet (AtJ) and eSAF pathways.

This comes as the country’s fundamentals suggest it has many of the ingredients needed to become a major SAF centre. Here’s why:

• First, there’s the solar potential. Uzbekistan averages 300 days of sunshine per year, with solar irradiation comparable to that in Spain. By the end of 2025, the country had installed 8 GW of renewable capacity, 31% of its total, and is targeting 25 GW of solar and wind by 2030.

• Second, land is abundant, and labour costs are lower than in Europe. And crucially, a region that spent decades watching cotton monoculture contribute to one of the world’s worst ecological disasters, the drying of the Aral Sea, is now actively looking for agricultural alternatives.

• That combination: Cheap renewable energy for green hydrogen, available agricultural land, low construction costs and strong political backing, forms the logic behind what would be one of the largest SAF schemes anywhere on earth.

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The project: AtJ meets e-Fuels

This month, Allied Biofuels, a Perth, Australia-headquartered developer, signed a binding Project Implementation Agreement with the regional government of Khorezm in northwestern Uzbekistan, backed by a Presidential Decree granting Special Economic Zone status with tax exemptions and customs incentives.

The total projected investment represents a colossal sum — $6.08 billion. Final investment decision is targeted for late 2026.

The facility’s design is a hybrid of two SAF pathways:

• The first is alcohol-to-jet. Using first-generation ethanol technology from India’s Praj Industries, the plant would convert locally grown feedstock, primarily sorghum, alongside camelina and agricultural residues, into approximately 293,000 tonnes per year of ethanol. That ethanol would then be converted into around 160,000 tonnes of SAF and 5,000 tonnes of green diesel annually.

• The second pathway, e-fuels, expands the scale dramatically. Biogenic CO2 captured during ethanol fermentation would be combined with green hydrogen, produced using up to 2.4 GW of Plug Power PEM electrolysers powered by 4.45 GW of dedicated renewable energy, to produce roughly 257,000 tonnes per year of electro-SAF (e-SAF).

The feedstock choices are worth noting. Sorghum is salt-tolerant and has been shown in research trials in Khorezm to perform well on marginal, salinised soils. This is exactly the kind of degraded land that cotton and wheat increasingly struggle on. Camelina, an oilseed native to Central Asia, is drought-tolerant and can grow on land unsuitable for food crops. Both choices avoid the food-versus-fuel conflict.

The questions

The fundamentals and numbers may be impressive. However, a project of this scale in a non-obvious geography does raise a number of questions.

First of all, the feedstock requirement, nearly 5,800 tonnes of biomass per day, is enormous, and no sorghum supply chain exists in Uzbekistan at anything close to this volume. Khorezm’s irrigated cropland covers around 270,000 hectares in a region where agriculture already consumes 90% of available water.

Building an entirely new feedstock ecosystem here is not trivial.

Then there is the logistics challenge. Uzbekistan is one of only two double-landlocked countries on earth. Every tonne of SAF produced would need to cross at least two national borders to reach a seaport, let alone the airports in Europe, the Middle East or Asia where mandates and / or demand exist.

The project also depends on 2.4 GW of electrolysers from Plug Power, a company that has faced well-documented financial headwinds, including a suspended Department of Energy loan programme and class action lawsuits. And the 4.45 GW of renewable energy the facility would require exceeds Uzbekistan’s total installed solar capacity as of early 2025.

The bigger picture

Whether or not this specific project reaches a final investment decision, the underlying thesis deserves attention.

The economics of SAF production are driven by factors such as renewable energy, feedstock, labour and construction costs, land costs and availability and in the case of e-fuels, green hydrogen. These can, in many cases, be sourced more cheaply in places like Central Asia, North Africa and parts of Latin America than in the established aviation markets of Europe and North America.

As a result, as a recent SAF Investor London panel chaired by SimpliFlying founder and CEO Shashank Nigam found, areas of the world including the so-called Global South represents an enormous, untapped SAF opportunity.

SAF mandates, however, are being set in established markets. If the cheapest production happens thousands of miles from where the fuel is needed, the question becomes whether the logistics cost of transporting fuel from low-cost production regions to high-demand markets is less than the input cost premium of producing closer to demand.

However, the fact that a $6 billion project with Presidential backing is being developed in Uzbekistan, suggests that the geography of SAF production could end up looking different from what the industry currently expects.

Industry Updates

• Who pays for net zero aviation? Airlines warn rising costs threaten fares and connectivity - Aerospace Global News

The aviation industry has not yet decided who will pay for net zero, as airlines baulk at costs, investors demand policy certainty, and mandate-driven SAF premiums have proven unexpectedly expensive.

• Sustainable aviation fuel could buffer airlines from energy spikes - Travel Weekly

US SAF production has tripled, but industry insiders fear a decline without renewed tax credits, as the fuel struggles to compete with renewable diesel for limited refinery space.

• Estuaire is collaborating with Air France address contrail impact - Estuaire

Estuaire has partnered with Air France to address the climate impact of contrails, advancing scientific understanding and developing practical solutions to reduce aviation’s environmental footprint and support the industry’s transition.

Infrastructure and operational efficiencies

• Iberia partners with RECARO on innovative trial of sustainable aircraft seating features - Future Travel Experience

Iberia has partnered with RECARO to trial sustainable seating on an A320neo, using upcycled fishing nets and real wood inlays to bring circular design into the aircraft cabin.

• Jet2.com achieves fuel and emissions savings through lightweight paint - Jet2

Jet2.com has applied lightweight paint to over 80 aircraft, saving nearly a quarter of a million litres of fuel annually and cutting carbon emissions by more than 500 tonnes.

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Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

• SAF start-up Sora Fuel raises USD 14.6m to build pilot production plant - Renewables Now

Sora Fuel has raised $14.6 million to scale a technology that turns air, water and renewable energy into jet fuel, aiming for price parity with fossil kerosene.

• Amex GBT, Shell Aviation and Google to accelerate decarbonisation through SAF agreement - TTGmice

Google has joined Amex GBT and Shell on the Avelia blockchain registry, using a book-and-claim model to buy SAF’s carbon savings even when the fuel is not physically available at its departure airport.

• XCF Global and Axens North America announce commercial collaboration for Vegan technology - Biomass Magazine

XCF Global has teamed up with Axens to deploy a modular refinery design, pairing its standardised blueprint with Vegan technology to accelerate SAF production worldwide.

• Oiltek secures USD 350 mil contract to build sustainable aviation fuel plant in Sabah - Yahoo

Oiltek has signed a $350 million deal to build a 300-tonne-per-day SAF plant in Sabah, an order that dwarfs its existing RM350 million book and deepens its role in the value chain.

• US breakthrough may cut cost of sustainable aviation fuel - BioEnergy Times

American scientists have developed a single-step catalyst to turn ethanol directly into jet fuel, and Gevo is now scaling the process to lower SAF costs significantly.

• Turkish Airlines Commits to Major SAF Producer Stake in Strategic Investment - AeroMorning

Turkish Airlines has approved a $42 million investment for a 40% stake in a Turkish biofuel producer, moving from SAF consumer to equity partner in production capacity.

• Acelen and Finboot sign biofuel traceability partnership for Brazilian SAF project – GreenAir News

Finboot has signed with Acelen Renewables to trace macauba-oil SAF from farm to fuel, using blockchain to meet strict EU and US sustainability regulations for Brazilian exports.

New technology: Electric and Hydrogen

• China’s push for hydrogen-powered planes takes step forward amid Iran energy crisis - SCMP

China has successfully flown the world’s most powerful hydrogen turboprop on a 7.5-tonne uncrewed cargo plane, marking a major milestone in its green aviation push.

• Out From the Shadows: EVIO’s hybrid-electric aircraft plan - Skies Mag

EVIO has unveiled a 76-seat hybrid-electric regional aircraft, backed by Boeing and Pratt & Whitney Canada, with first deliveries planned for the early 2030s.

• Vertical’s eVTOL completes first transition test flight - Aerospace Testing International

Vertical Aerospace has completed the first piloted transition of its full-scale eVTOL, taking off vertically and accelerating into wingborne flight at its Gloucestershire test site.

• Eve Air Mobility Builds Flight-Test Momentum With 50 Successful Flights - Eve Air Mobility

Eve Air Mobility has passed 50 successful test flights with its full-scale eVTOL prototype, gathering critical data as it moves towards certification and conforming prototypes.

• Joby Taps Air Space Intelligence To Manage eVTOL Traffic Coordination - Aviation International News

Joby has teamed up with Air Space Intelligence to use AI for airspace coordination, aiming to integrate its eVTOL taxis seamlessly into the busy US National Airspace System.

• Boeing Plays Big Role in Autonomous Electric Aircraft’s First Flight - Industrial Equipment News

Aurora Flight Sciences has helped design Wisk’s autonomous Generation 6 aircraft, providing critical battery, guidance and structural engineering to enable its first flight.

• FAA Publishes Special Conditions for ZeroAvia’s 600kW Electric Engine for Aircraft - ZeroAvia

The FAA has published final special conditions for ZeroAvia’s electric engine, a major step towards certifying its hydrogen-electric powertrain for 10-20 seat aircraft.

• Blue Spirit Aero Completes High-Altitude Hydrogen Propulsion Test - Fuel Cells Works

Blue Spirit Aero has validated its hydrogen propulsion pod in high-altitude winter tests, clearing the way for flight testing of its Dragonfly light aircraft demonstrator.

While one can only guess how SAF markets will develop between now and 2035, airlines cannot wait for certainty before acting, decisions made in 2026 will determine cost exposure and supply access for the rest of the decade.

This report is a decision-support tool for airline teams navigating SAF cost exposure, compliance risk and procurement strategy with a primary focus on the second half of this decade to 2030.

This new report examines SAF from a practical airline perspective, focusing on the key decisions leadership teams need to make as mandates ramp up toward 2030. In particular, it looks at how airlines should approach:

1. SAF cost exposure and budgeting, including the full compliance cost stack, supplier fees, and route-level impact on ticket prices.

2. Dual regulatory frameworks, with different structures across ReFuelEU Aviation and the UK SAF Mandate requiring distinct compliance strategies.

3. Supply reality and the compliance gap, including limited SAF availability, feedstock concentration risk, and the implications for meeting 2030 targets.

4. eSAF readiness and procurement strategy, covering project maturity, hydrogen constraints, and how airlines should engage with offtake agreements and policy mechanisms today.

Download the full report for a detailed breakdown of SAF costs, supply outlook, and the decisions airlines need to make before 2030.

The FEL is a regulatory scheme that gives airlines a verified, harmonised way to disclose CO2 emissions to passengers. EASA, as an independent authority within the EU’s aviation system, plays a central role in ensuring consistency and credibility in how these emissions are communicated.

The Flight Emissions Label forms part of the same legislative package as RefuelEU Aviation, the EU’s SAF mandate framework. Currently, participation is voluntary for airlines within European jurisdictions, and the label aims to tackle a persistent challenge in aviation sustainability: the lack of a standardised approach to calculating emissions.

Here are the key highlights of the conversation:

• What makes the Flight Emissions Label trustworthy and harmonised (7:36)

• How transparency can be a commercial advantage for airlines (18:00)

• How and where passengers will see emissions data (22:31)

• Safeguards against greenwashing and selective disclosure (28:05)

• How the label accounts for SAF and incentivises uptake (31:03)

• Label 2: airline index and aircraft technology labelling (33:45)

• Implementation challenges and reporting burden (39:23)

Keep reading for a detailed overview of the episode.

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Why a harmonised standard matters to aviation’s credibility

Aviation faces a distinct transparency challenge. While passengers can already check the carbon footprint of a flight across multiple platforms, each carbon calculator relies on its own assumptions, methodologies, and typically uses estimated rather than actual fuel burn, leading to inconsistent results. This results in the same flight yielding different figures for its CO2 emissions depending on the tool a passenger consults.

For passengers trying to make informed decisions, this is effectively meaningless noise. And for airlines, the fragmentation creates a different kind of problem: when anyone can choose which calculator to display their emissions through, the incentive to select the most flattering one is obvious.

“The idea is that, at least within the European Union, there is a single method for doing this, so when airlines disclose emissions, consumers can be confident they have all been calculated in the same way,” explains Achilleos.

EASA’s role as an independent authority is central here. Unlike commercial platforms, it has no commercial interest in how emissions are presented. The aim, as Achilleos puts it, is to create a direct and transparent channel between airlines and passengers, free from concerns about greenwashing, where airlines can clearly communicate their efforts to reduce environmental harm.

Four takeaways from the conversation

1. Real data, not modelled estimates

A key distinction that Di Palma and Achilleos emphasise about the FEL is the use of actual fuel burn data. Most existing calculators rely on estimates. They approximate how much fuel an aircraft type is likely to burn on a given route and use that to calculate emissions.

Much of this data is already reported by airlines under existing frameworks such as EU ETS, CORSIA, and RefuelEU. These datasets have already been subject to verification, and are used to ensure that emissions calculations are based on real operational data rather than modelled assumptions.

2. The first-mover dilemma: risk versus transparency

Participation in the FEL is currently voluntary, and initial consultations with airlines identified concerns around early adoption. In particular, airlines raised questions about the implications of publishing verified emissions data ahead of competitors.

“Being a first mover can have some negative consequences for airlines that choose to implement the Flight Emissions Label in their operations. So indeed, there was some pushback: ‘Why should we be the first? We are the ones exposing ourselves by putting our emissions on display,’” says Di Palma.

He also draws a parallel with other sectors where disclosure became standard practice over time, citing examples such as calorie labelling in food and beverages. In those cases, early adopters accepted a degree of commercial risk while making information more visible to consumers.

In addition, the label provides a way for airlines to communicate their investment in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Within the EU regulatory framework, airlines are required to meet SAF-related obligations under RefuelEU Aviation, and the label offers a mechanism to demonstrate these efforts to passengers and the wider public.

3. Integrating SAF use into emissions calculations

One of the label’s key design features is how it accounts for SAF, incorporating its impact directly into the CO2 calculation. As airlines increase their use of SAF, the reported emissions for a given flight decrease accordingly.

Di Palma describes both the mechanism and its intent: “The more airlines use SAF, the lower the CO2 emissions from their flights. This is therefore a mechanism to incentivise airlines to purchase and use more SAF in their operations.”

EASA is working with airlines, including Air France-KLM, to refine how SAF is accounted for within the label, particularly as the scheme is implemented and tested in practice.

4. Expanding the scope of emissions reporting

FEL currently assesses emissions on a flight-by-flight basis. EASA presents this as a starting point, while also exploring how the framework could evolve to reflect broader aspects of airline sustainability.

One area under consideration is how performance might be assessed at an airline level. As Achilleos explains: “It could be, for example, that if we are assessing an airline as a whole, it may make more sense to consider how much SAF it uses overall, rather than on a flight-by-flight basis.”

EASA has also made the code base for its emissions calculator publicly available, with the intention that other regions could adopt a similar approach.

By standardising how emissions are calculated and presented, the FEL addresses a long-standing gap in aviation sustainability communication. Its next phase will test how this framework can expand beyond individual flights to reflect broader performance. The outcome will shape how emissions data is understood by both airlines and passengers.

Get our new book

Our new book Sustainability in the Air: Volume Two is now available for purchase on Amazon. Learn more about the startups, strategists, and sceptics working to close the gap between growth and green ambition.

‘Sustainability in the Air’ is the world’s leading podcast dedicated to sustainable aviation. Through in-depth conversations with top aviation leaders, we break through the clutter and provide a clear roadmap for a net-zero future.

• Airport electricity demand could increase two to fivefold by 2050 as the sector electrifies ground operations, charges future electric aircraft, and supports SAF production, but a deep-pocketed competitor is already buying up much of the energy aviation will need.

• AI data centres are consuming energy on a staggering scale. A single next-gen facility can draw up to 1.2 gigawatts - equivalent to 750k-900k homes - and data centres already consume 21% of Ireland’s entire electricity supply. US grid interconnection now takes nearly five years; GE gas turbine lead times have stretched to seven years.

• Boom Supersonic’s pivot to selling 1.21GW of gas turbines to a data centre developer, with a $1.25 billion backlog, illustrates where energy investment is flowing.

• But there is an upside. The same technologies that data centres are driving to scale, such as next-gen geothermal, flow batteries, small nuclear, direct air capture, are exactly what aviation needs. Tech investment could bring costs down for everyone.

• Aviation cannot outbid big tech, but it can ride the cost curves. That means airports investing in on-site storage and microgrids, and SAF producers tracking energy technology trajectories as closely as feedstock prices.

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Airport electricity demand is heading in one direction. As the sector electrifies ground support equipment, installs charging infrastructure for future electric aircraft, and draws more heavily on clean power for terminal operations, studies forecast that airport power demand could double by 2030 and increase as much as fivefold by 2050.

Every pathway to decarbonising flight depends on abundant, affordable clean energy. Sustainable aviation fuel production, whether from waste feedstocks, power-to-liquids, or hydrogen, requires some degree of power. The hydrogen that underpins synthetic e-fuels needs either cheap renewable power for electrolysis or geological sources that are still being proven. Then we get to Direct Air Capture (DAC), an important tool for addressing residual emissions that is energy-intensive by design.

So, where will all this clean energy come from? That question took on new urgency at SXSW 2026 in Austin, where a panel on data centre sustainability made clear that aviation is not the only sector with an enormous and growing appetite for clean power, and certainly not the one with the deepest pockets.

A voracious energy appetite

The panel, “Dirty Data: The Hidden Climate Cost of Our Digital Lives,” brought together executives from geothermal startup Sage Geosystems, water technology firm Gradiant, flow battery developer XL Batteries, and green building standards body BREEAM. Even though none of them mentioned aviation once, everything they discussed has direct implications for airports, airlines, and fuel producers.

The panel started by outlining the colossal scale of data centre energy consumption:

Acoording to Jason Peart, COO of Sage Geosystems, a single next-generation AI data centre can consume up to 1.2 gigawatts of power. That is equivalent to a town of around 750k-900k homes. In terms of water consumption, the panel noted that a 100-megawatt facility uses as much water daily as 6,500 households.

Data centre power consumption is projected to reach 10-15% of the US grid by 2030. In Ireland, data centres already consume 21% of the country’s entire metered electricity supply, up from just 5% in 2015, according to figures from Ireland’s Central Statistics Office.

Moreover, data centres have now overtaken all urban dwellings as electricity consumers, and the International Energy Agency projects they could account for nearly a third of Irish electricity consumption by the end of this year.

Breana Wheeler, US Director of Operations at BREEAM, framed the tension as follows:

Communities are already responding. Wheeler noted that roughly $64 billion in data centre development projects have been halted by local opposition.

An infrastructure bottleneck aviation cannot ignore

Tom Sisto, CEO of XL Batteries, laid out a series of infrastructure constraints. The current lead time for a GE gas turbine, he told the audience, is now seven years. Grid interconnection queues stretch to seven to twelve years, depending on the region.

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s data confirms this: In the US, the median time for an energy project to move from interconnection request to commercial operation has grown from under two years in 2008 to nearly five years today. More than 2,300 gigawatts of generation and storage capacity are actively waiting for grid connection — nearly double the entire US installed generating fleet. Google has reportedly faced potential grid connection delays of up to 12 years for new data centres.

That has led data centres and big tech to bring their own power, adopt new technologies and island themselves off from electricity grids, “They’ve hit the wall and cannot continue status quo,” he said. “They have to try new technologies, they have to get creative.”

These, however, are the same renewable electricity resources, the same grid capacity, the same battery storage, geothermal and nuclear technologies that aviation needs in its quest to decarbonise. Big tech is now pursuing them, having the advantage of deeper pockets and faster timelines.

For SAF producers and airport operators trying to secure long-term clean energy contracts, this is the competitive landscape they are now entering.

From supersonic aircraft to data centre gas turbines

Perhaps nothing illustrates where the money is flowing better than Boom Supersonic’s recent pivot.

The company, originally founded to build a supersonic airliner, announced in December 2025 that it would sell 1.21 gigawatts of natural gas turbines to AI data centre developer Crusoe. Boom’s “Superpower” turbine, a 42-megawatt unit based on jet-engine technology, already has a reported backlog exceeding $1.25 billion.

As the ICCT’s Dan Rutherford observed, this represents a company that has moved from aircraft manufacturer to engine OEM, to AI data centre energy provider. All while its end-of-2026 deadline to begin producing aircraft at its North Carolina factory approaches, along with the 1,750 jobs promised in exchange for $200 million in state incentives.

Could a rising tide lift aviation’s boats?

But rather than framing big tech’s renewable energy grab as purely a threat, there is a more nuanced reading.

That’s because, in addition to consuming clean energy, big tech is also bankrolling the next generation of it, much of which is directly relevant to aviation.

To take one example, nuclear energy, which, as we outlined in a recent article, could provide a route to cheaper synthetic fuels.

Google has signed a 500-megawatt SMR deal with Kairos Power, with the first reactor targeted for 2030. Amazon has backed 5 gigawatts of X-energy SMR projects and invested $500 million in the company’s reactor design and fuel fabrication. Microsoft has signed a 20-year deal to restart the Three Mile Island Unit 1 reactor in the US, delivering over 800 megawatts of clean baseload power. Meta has issued a request for proposals seeking 1-4 gigawatts of new nuclear generation.

The pattern holds for batteries, too. XL Batteries, one of the SXSW panellists, is commercialising long-duration organic flow battery storage that avoids lithium entirely. Data centres need it for grid stability; airports need it for exactly the same reason, as the Heathrow substation fire in March 2025 made clear.

Then there is waste heat. Breana Wheeler described how AI data centres generate massive amounts of it. A recent paper from the Kleinman Center for Energy Policy explored co-locating data centres with direct air capture facilities, using waste heat to power the CO2 regeneration that DAC requires. Given that DAC is essential both as a CO2 source for synthetic aviation fuels and for addressing residual emissions, pairing it with data centre infrastructure is an idea worth considering.

Overall, tens of billions of dollars are flowing into technologies that our January 2026 report identified as critical to aviation’s decarbonisation over the 2030s. If data centre demand drives those costs down the same curve that solar followed, airports and e-fuel producers stand to benefit.

What this means for aviation

Aviation cannot outbid big tech for clean energy. But it can position itself to ride the cost curves that tech investment is creating. That means airports thinking seriously about on-site energy storage and microgrids. It means SAF producers tracking geothermal, nuclear, and battery cost trajectories as closely as they track feedstock prices. And it means the industry engaging with the data centre energy buildout as a strategic factor in its own decarbonisation planning.

Industry Updates

• American Airlines cut contrails by 62% with Google AI - Aerospace Global News

American Airlines and Google cut contrail formation by 62% across 2,400 transatlantic flights using AI rerouting, reducing warming impact by up to 69% with no statistically significant increase in fuel burn.

• Singapore defers introduction of SAF levy due to Middle East conflict – GreenAir News

Singapore’s CAAS deferred its SAF Levy from April 2026 to October, pushing the 1% SAF mandate back to 2027, citing the ongoing Middle East conflict’s disruption to aviation fuel markets.

• EU Must Review EU ETS to Support Competitiveness as Aviation Decarbonises - IATA

IATA has called on the EU to reform its Emissions Trading System, urging full CORSIA implementation for all international flights, a SAF book-and-claim mechanism under the ETS, and reinvestment of ETS revenues into decarbonisation.

• European airlines call on EU to lower carbon pricing and SAF costs – GreenAir News

Airlines for Europe told the EU that aviation regulatory costs have tripled since 2014 to €15.5 billion annually, demanding ETS costs align with CORSIA and calling for the eSAF sub-mandate to be postponed.

• JAL becomes the first commercial airline to retire large-scale Gold Standard CORSIA credits – GreenAir News

Japan Airlines became the first commercial airline to make a large-scale retirement of Gold Standard CORSIA credits, surrendering 180,000 EEUs sourced from cookstove projects in Malawi and Tanzania, retired via Shell.

• Sustainable Aviation launches £2m greenhouse gas removals initiative to tackle aviation’s net zero gap - Aerospace Global News

UK aviation body Sustainable Aviation launched a £2 million Advanced Market Signal at the Sustainable Skies World Summit, committing members to purchase greenhouse gas removal credits to help scale nascent CDR markets for aviation’s net zero gap.

• Air travel demand set to double by 2050, IATA forecasts - Aerospace Global News

IATA projected global air travel will exceed 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometres by 2050 — more than double 2024 levels — at a 3.1% annual growth rate, with Asia-Pacific (3.8%) and Africa (3.6%) leading growth.

• OMV supports Europe’s unique research infrastructure for SAF at the Technical University of Leoben - Biodiesel Magazine

OMV and Technical University of Leoben have established a one-of-a-kind research SAF research facility, to study sustainable aviation fuels using simulation methods and machine learning to support development and scale-up.

• British Airways Proposes Bonus for Pilots Who Burn Less Fuel - Bloomberg

British Airways has proposed a pilot bonus, worth up to 1% of basic salary, contingent on crews collectively cutting CO2 emissions by 60,000 tonnes above 2025 levels, with a British Airline Pilots’ Association vote scheduled for late April.

Infrastructure and operational efficiencies

• Fraport secures €2.55m in EU funding for ground power and charging infrastructure project - Passenger Terminal Today

Fraport secured €2.55 million in EU CEF funding for Frankfurt Airport’s Greenvolt project, covering 322 new EV charging points, ground power upgrades at nine remote aircraft stands, and battery storage linked to runway solar panels.

• How Frankfurt Airport is making the energy transition real - International Airport Review

Fraport secured a 15-year, 85-megawatt offshore wind PPA with EnBW’s He Dreiht wind farm from mid-2026, complemented by a 17.4 MWp vertical photovoltaic installation along Runway 18 West, targeting net zero Scope 1 and 2 by 2045.

• Waste and Carbon Emissions Are Down at Heathrow Airport - InsideHook

Heathrow’s 2025 sustainability report showed aircraft emissions fell 7% from 2019 levels, ground carbon emissions dropped 18%, overall waste reduced 3%, and 3.1% of departing flights used sustainable aviation fuel.

• Miami airport expansion boosts capacity and sustainability - Capital Analytics Associates

Miami International Airport and American Airlines are developing a $1 billion Concourse D60 expansion adding 17 new gates, breaking ground in 2027 and completing by 2030, as part of Miami-Dade’s wider $9 billion M.I.A. Plan.

• Leeds Bradford Airport unveils bold new strategy linking transformative growth with sustainability - Airport Suppliers

Leeds Bradford Airport launched its “Together for Tomorrow” sustainability strategy, targeting Scope 1 and 2 net zero by 2030, backed by a £200 million terminal transformation and building on a 74% emissions reduction achieved since 2018.

• Cologne Bonn Airport recieves significant funding for sustainability projects - Regional Gateway

Cologne Bonn Airport is investing €33.25 million across five sustainability projects — including 38 EV chargers, 16 pre-conditioned air units, and 15 electric ground power units — supported by €9.75 million in EU CEF funding, targeting 6,000 tonnes of annual CO₂ savings.

• How airports are accelerating the energy revolution - International Airport Review

Venice Airport, San Francisco International, and Frankfurt’s Fraport outlined distinct energy strategies — agrivoltaic solar, full GSE electrification with 500 charging ports, and an 85 MW offshore wind PPA — at an International Airport Review webinar.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

• Octopus Energy backs billion-dollar biomass-to-SAF project in Nova Scotia - Bioenergy Insight Magazine

Octopus Energy Generation is planning up to $6 billion investment in a Nova Scotia biomass-to-SAF facility at Goldboro, producing 165,000 tonnes of SAF annually from 750,000 tonnes of forestry waste for European markets, targeting 2031 operations.

• EcoCeres and Chinese aviation partners launch SAF pilot program in China - Biomass Magazine

EcoCeres launched “Project Spark” SAF pilot in China with five aviation partners, using Zhangjiagang-produced waste-based SAF to refuel commercial flights at Chengdu Shuangliu Airport on 16 March, with credits tracked via the AnchorTrace platform.

• Praj Industries Pivots Biofuel Strategy to Boost India's Energy Security - Whalesbook

Praj Industries is expanding India’s biofuel ecosystem beyond ethanol into SAF and compressed biogas through integrated biorefineries, as India’s 85% crude oil import dependency intensifies the push for domestic alternatives amid geopolitical tensions.

• SAF Coalition’s second annual DC Fly-In brings together 50-plus organizations to advance American energy independence - Biodiesel Magazine

More than 50 organisations from the SAF Coalition gathered on Capitol Hill on 25 March to advocate for policy support, following a year in which US domestic SAF production more than doubled.

• Rolls-Royce eyes nuclear reactor heat to power sustainable jet fuel production - MSN

Rolls-Royce has partnered with UK firm Equilibrion to explore using its small modular reactors to produce sustainable aviation fuel at commercial scale, offering a reliable, low-carbon alternative to intermittent renewables for energy-intensive SAF synthesis.

• Zeldin confirms RFS rule will be finalised in March - Biomass Magazine

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin confirmed the Renewable Fuel Standard “Set 2” rule would be finalised in March 2026, after its delivery to the White House Office of Management and Budget on 25 February following a public comment period.

• XCF Global highlights the case for domestic SAF - Biomass Magazine

Middle East conflict drove California SAF prices to a record $8.85 per gallon in early March as Strait of Hormuz tanker flows were disrupted, prompting US producer XCF Global to advocate for domestic waste-based SAF as an energy security solution.

• SAFA urges government to use used cooking oil for sustainable aviation fuel - BioEnergy Times

India’s SAF Association urged the Ministry of Petroleum to include used cooking oil under the Extended Producer Responsibility framework, arguing that capturing 15% of commercial UCO could meaningfully boost domestic sustainable aviation fuel production.

• Universal Fuel Technologies demonstrates fully drop-in SAF using HEFA byproducts - Biomass Magazine

Washington State University validated Universal Fuel Technologies’ Flexiforming process, which converts HEFA naphtha byproduct into aromatic kerosene; a 16:84 blend with HEFA SAF met all jet fuel performance standards without any fossil-based blending.

• Technip Energies buys stake in green hydrogen-based e-SAF project in France - Hydrogen Insight

Technip Energies has acquired a stake in Verso Energy’s DEZiR project, a green hydrogen-based e-SAF facility in France expected to produce 80,000 tonnes of synthetic aviation fuel annually when it starts operations in 2030.

• Southern Energy announces $1.4B methanol, sustainable aviation fuel facility - TipRanks

Southern Energy Renewables announced a $1.4 billion biomass-to-green methanol and SAF facility in Louisiana’s St. Charles Parish, converting wood-waste into fuel and creating 120 direct jobs averaging $97,267, plus 394 indirect positions.

• DHL Express partners with Malaysia Aviation Group to reduce GHG emissions using SAF - Biomass Magazine

DHL Express partnered with Malaysia Aviation Group to reduce cargo emissions using book-and-claim SAF, building on MAG’s 2025 two-week SAF trial uplift on the Kuala Lumpur–London route at KLIA.

• From fission to fusion: The long game for clean jet fuel - SimpliFlying

A SXSW 2026 fusion panel projected commercial fusion power arriving in the 2040s — precisely when power-to-liquid SAF must scale — while noting SHINE Technologies already uses fusion neutrons commercially to inspect jet engine turbine blades.

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New technology: Electric and Hydrogen

• Airbus Greenlights 100 Seat Hydrogen Regional Jet After Feasibility Success - AeroXplorer.com

Airbus has confirmed technical feasibility of its ZEROe 100-seat hydrogen fuel cell regional jet, featuring four 2-megawatt under-wing pods running on liquid hydrogen at –253°C, with entry into service targeted for 2040–2045.

• Eve flies full-scale eVTOL prototype for Brazilian government - Aerospace Testing International

Eve Air Mobility flew its full-scale eVTOL prototype for Brazilian President Lula da Silva at Embraer’s Gavião Peixoto facility, having logged 35 flights and nearly 1.5 hours of total flight time since its December 2025 maiden hover.

• 3M partners with JetZero to reshape aviation - 3M

3M announced an investment and collaboration with JetZero to develop a blended-wing aircraft aiming to reduce fuel use by up to 50%.

• Joby Completes Piloted Electric Air Taxi Flight Across San Francisco Bay and Around the Golden Gate - Joby Aviation

Joby Aviation’s piloted electric air taxi crossed San Francisco Bay and flew past the Golden Gate Bridge on 13 March, launching its 2026 Electric Skies Tour following White House eIPP selection for operations across 10 states.

• FAA Finalises Special Conditions for ZeroAvia’s ZA601 Electric Engine - Aviation International News

The FAA published final special conditions for ZeroAvia’s hydrogen-electric ZA601 engine on 18 March, addressing Part 33 regulatory gaps for electric propulsion, despite ZeroAvia having cut roughly half its workforce in January due to funding shortfalls.

• Loganair flies Beta’s ALIA electric aircraft in UK first - Aerospace Global News

Loganair flew a BETA Technologies ALIA CX300 from Edinburgh to Dundee and then Inverness on 19 March, becoming the first UK commercial airline to operate an all-electric flight, during a two-week Royal Mail freight demonstration.

• Hydrogen-electric aircraft inches closer toward industrial execution, design review completed - Interesting Engineering

French startup Beyond Aero completed the Preliminary Design Review of its hydrogen-electric business jet, confirming that propulsion, hydrogen storage, aerodynamics, and avionics systems have reached the maturity required for a certifiable architecture.

• RTX’s Collins Aerospace announces completion of Clean Aviation Joint Undertaking HECATE project - RTX

Collins Aerospace completed the EU Clean Aviation Joint Undertaking’s HECATE project, achieving Technology Readiness Level 5 for high-voltage electric power distribution systems for hybrid-electric regional aircraft, using digital twin simulations throughout.

• FlyECO and TRIATHLON Partner on Hydrogen Electric Powertrains for Aviation - Fuel Cells Works

EU Horizon Europe aviation projects FlyECO and TRIATHLON signed a non-disclosure agreement to share research data on hydrogen-electric propulsion, with FlyECO combining solid oxide fuel cells and hydrogen-fuelled gas turbines under DLR coordination.

• Cash crunch looms for Vertical as flight testing advances - Zag Daily

Bristol-based eVTOL developer Vertical Aerospace warned its £69 million year-end 2025 cash balance may only last into mid-2026, despite completing hover, vertical, and wingborne piloted flight milestones with its Valo aircraft during 2025.

• Beta Electric Aircraft Will Fly First Customers in Hawaii - Flying Magazine

Surf Air Mobility signed a purchase agreement for 25 BETA Technologies Alia CTOL electric aircraft — with options for 75 more — to launch commercial electric aviation in Hawaii, starting with inter-island cargo before passenger services.

I personally attended the forum, and what follows are the key insights from a day of frank, wide-ranging conversation spanning the European Union’s (EU) aviation strategy, the stubborn gap between innovation and commercialisation, infrastructure investment, sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), and what it will actually take to keep Europe at the front of global aviation over the next decade and beyond.

The EU’s role in strengthening aviation leadership

In a fireside chat that focused on Europe’s position in a rapidly evolving aviation landscape, Magda Kopczyńska, Director-General for Mobility and Transport at the European Commission (EC), reaffirmed Europe’s leadership in aviation, underscoring the region’s continued strength in aviation innovation.

On funding, Kopczyńska pointed to a proposal for two financial instruments aimed at better supporting innovation and scaling. These could sit within the next Horizon Europe program or the European Competitiveness Fund, with the Commission still working through how the two would coexist. The objective, she said, is to accompany companies “from the idea to the full market deployment”. She also pointed to the upcoming publication of a new EU aviation strategy spanning the entire ecosystem: infrastructure, airports, airlines and manufacturers. A formal “call for evidence” is due shortly.

The conversation closed on sustainability. Kopczyńska also emphasised the importance of staying the course on sustainability, pointing to the Sustainable Transport Investment Plan published in November 2025, as a way to boost investment in SAF. She also framed energy independence as an underlying concern for Europe: “This is the dependency that Europe really cannot afford to have for a long time.”

Competitiveness in aviation: policy driver or industry outcome?

The fireside chat was followed by a panel discussion that brought in four additional voices: Rémi Maillard, Executive Vice-President Engineering for Commercial Aircraft and Head of Technology at Airbus; Dorothea von Boxberg, CEO of Brussels Airlines; Christian Kunsch, CEO of Hamburg Airport; and Ivor van Dartel, CEO of Væridion, a European startup developing fully electric regional aircraft.

The gap between invention and commercialisation

When the wider panel convened, van Dartel offered the sharpest diagnosis of why mastering the “Magic Three” is harder than any policy document suggests. The issue, he argued, is not a lack of innovation, but an inability to translate it into commercial success. “Europe invents, America commercialises and China builds,” he said. “We need to commercialise more and we need to build more.”

He also highlighted the scale of the opportunity, particularly in short-haul travel: Europe has nearly 229 million passengers flying on routes below 500 kilometres, compared with just 80 million in the United States.

His argument was ultimately about how innovation is brought to market. Governments, he suggested, need to play a more active role in early demand creation. Drawing on examples from outside aviation, he cited Norway’s electrification of buses and ferries, where public institutions placed the first orders, helping to de-risk investment and unlock private capital.

He also pointed to a deeper structural issue in Europe’s financial system. “Half of the money on the NASDAQ is coming from European investors,” he said, arguing that without a more integrated European capital market, Europe risks continuing to build companies that ultimately grow elsewhere.

Operational gains now; transformational change later

von Boxberg offered a more immediate perspective on decarbonisation. For airlines, she explained, the quick wins sit almost entirely in day-to-day operations: single-engine taxiing, weight reduction wherever it can realistically be found, and aerodynamic improvements that can be applied to existing aircraft. At Brussels Airlines, this approach led to measures like optimising potable water loads by carrying only what is required for each flight rather than adhering to standard fill levels. While individually modest, these steps are practical and add up over time, she said.

She also highlighted the constraints shaping airline decision-making. European carriers, she argued, operate within a regulatory framework that can place them at a disadvantage relative to airlines outside the EU, underscoring the need for a more level playing field to remain competitive.

In terms of investment, von Boxberg was clear that fleet renewal remains the most dependable lever. Newer aircraft reduce fuel burn, affecting both emissions and costs. At the same time, she highlighted the challenge of slow technology cycles: aircraft entering service in the next decade will remain in operation for decades afterwards, emphasising the need to bring forward the next generation more quickly.

Sustainability is the purpose, not the constraint

Maillard pushed back against the framing of sustainability and competitiveness as inherently at odds. At Airbus, he said, the two are fundamentally linked. “Our purpose is to pioneer sustainable aerospace,” he said, emphasising that improving efficiency is central to both environmental performance and business outcomes. Fuel, he noted, remains a primary cost driver for airlines, so reducing consumption strengthens competitiveness while lowering emissions.

He also underlined the scale of change underway. The industry is approaching a new wave of technological disruption, spanning electrification and hybridisation, alongside advances in aerodynamics, materials and industrial systems. The question, in his view, is not whether these shifts will happen, but who will capture their value.

“I think it’s a very defining moment for the aviation industry if we take the right course now,” he said. “That’s the urgency… to take the right decision now that will define our aerospace industry for the coming decades.”

Infrastructure must be built for uncertainty

Hamburg Airport’s Kunsch focused on the realities of long-term infrastructure planning in a period of rapid technological change. Traditional assumptions no longer hold, he argued. Infrastructure designed to last for decades risks becoming outdated far sooner, as new propulsion systems and operating models emerge. “We cannot invest anymore in something that will last for 60 years,” he said, describing a shift towards a more modular approach: smaller, incremental investments that can be adapted as technology matures. While this may increase overall costs, it reduces the risk of locking capital into assets that may need to be replaced within five to ten years.

His broader view was that uncertainty must not become an excuse for inaction. Investment decisions will have to be made with incomplete information, and then revisited as conditions change.

On SAF, Kunsch was direct about the gap between ambition and delivery. He pointed to the disconnect between regulatory signals and industrial readiness: while policy frameworks are in place, the funding required to scale production has not followed at the necessary pace. In Germany, he noted, budgets had been identified but remain insufficient to enable a meaningful ramp-up of industrial capacity. The result is a growing mismatch between targets and supply. “If I set the framework and if I set the directions, then I also need to provide the funding. Otherwise it’s not going to happen,” he said.

The panel closed without easy answers, which is perhaps the most honest outcome for a challenge of this scale. Europe’s aviation sector has clear strengths in research, manufacturing and sustainability ambition; the task now is to translate that into commercial scale and financial momentum.

Meg Gentle has spent her career building energy infrastructure at scale. As a senior executive at Cheniere Energy and later as CEO of Tellurian, she was instrumental in the emergence of the United States as the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) — a transformation that involved deploying over $30 billion into facilities including Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, and Freeport LNG.

Now, as Executive Director at HIF Global, she’s applying that same infrastructure mindset to a very different challenge: producing synthetic fuels from recycled CO2 and renewable energy, and bringing them to the aviation market.

It’s a transition that Gentle describes as a natural evolution rather than a sharp pivot. “Over that time, I really developed this passion for developing new things… Trying to see where energy needs to go and how we can create new markets to make that happen,” she told us. “It was sort of an easy transition to say, all right, now we’ve established the LNG market. What is the future of fuels?”

Here are the key highlights of the conversation:

• How Chile’s wind resource sparked the e-fuels model (3:34)

• How e-fuels are made using hydrogen and captured CO2 (5:37)

• Why methanol offers more flexibility than Fischer-Tropsch fuels (7:15)

• How waste methane becomes sustainable aviation fuel (18:46)

• Why waste-based SAF can beat HEFA on cost and climate impact (20:04)

• Understanding negative carbon intensity and why it matters (23:59)

• Why policy certainty is the biggest hidden challenge in scaling SAF (33:04)

Keep reading for a detailed overview of the episode.

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Starting from Patagonia

That future began taking shape in one of the most remote places on earth. HIF Global’s Haru Oni facility in southern Chile was the world’s first operating e-methanol and e-gasoline plant, taking advantage of Patagonia’s extraordinary wind resource.

The answer was to convert that renewable electricity into transportable liquid fuels. This involves using electrolysers to produce hydrogen, combining it with captured CO2, and synthesising the result into methanol, which can then be converted into gasoline, diesel, marine fuel, or jet fuel.

From Chile, HIF Global has built a portfolio spanning Uruguay, Brazil, Texas, and Australia. Each location was chosen for its combination of low-cost renewable power, access to CO2, and proximity to markets. “We decided the best approach is to have some geographical diversity,” Gentle said, “so that we can provide highly reliable production and access the market from different places.”

Two pathways into aviation

What makes HIF Global’s aviation play distinctive is that they’re pursuing two quite different SAF pathways simultaneously.

• For the European market, where ReFuelEU mandates a synthetic fuel sub-quota from 2030, HIF Global plans to ship e-methanol — likely from their Uruguay project — to European refineries, where it would be converted to jet fuel and blended into existing distribution systems. The company has recently signed offtake agreements with German companies including MB Energy and German eFuel One for e-methanol supply.

• For the US market, however, HIF Global is taking a different approach entirely: RNG-based SAF. Renewable natural gas. Here, methane captured from dairy manure and other waste sources can be converted to jet fuel via Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, and carries extraordinarily low (often deeply negative) carbon intensity scores.

(It’s the RNG-based SAF pathway that is the subject of a working session HIF Global is hosting at CERAWeek this week, examining whether RNG-based SAF can achieve a lower cost of CO2 abatement than HEFA — the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids pathway that currently dominates SAF supply.)

The case for regulatory certainty

When asked about the biggest obstacle to scaling these pathways, Gentle pointed not to technology or capital but to policy stability. “People really underestimate the need for long-term certainty,” she said, advocating for what she calls early mover protection, a guarantee that the regulatory rules in place when a project starts construction will remain stable for 10 to 20 years.

It’s a perspective shaped by decades of building infrastructure where investment decisions are measured in billions and timelines in decades, and it carries particular weight as governments on both sides of the Atlantic navigate the tension between ambitious SAF mandates and the investment certainty producers need to meet them.

Looking ahead

Gentle sees a future where airlines won’t differentiate between HEFA, eSAF, or RNG-based SAF. Instead, they’ll simply purchase aviation fuel rated by its carbon intensity score.

For now, HIF Global is focused on building the value chains to get there — and on making the case, one working session at a time, that the economics of SAF are about to look very different.

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• Fusion combines light atoms rather than splitting heavy ones. It carries none of the meltdown or long-term waste risks associated with fission.

• Fusion fuel has an energy density roughly 10 million times greater than oil, with effectively limitless raw materials, meaning there is no floor on how cheap the energy could eventually become.

• Commercial fusion power is most credibly projected for the 2040s, which is precisely when SAF production needs to scale from millions to billions of litres.

• Fusion is already in use in aviation: SHINE Technologies uses fusion-generated neutrons to inspect jet engine turbine blades for defects invisible to X-rays.

• Plan for fission now. Keep fusion in your peripheral vision.

Last week, we made the case that small modular nuclear reactors could provide the always-on, low-carbon electricity that power-to-liquid SAF production demands. That piece was about what fission can deliver within the next decade. This is about what comes after.

At SXSW 2026, a panel titled “The Great Fusion Debate: How Far Away Are We Really?” brought together Greg Piefer, founder and CEO of SHINE Technologies, one of the few companies already generating commercial revenue from fusion; Dr Melanie Windridge, founder of Fusion Energy Insights; and Luke Ward, investment manager at Baillie Gifford. It was moderated by Jacob Goldstein, podcast host and author at Pushkin Industries.

Two ways to go nuclear

First, a quick explanation. The small modular reactors in last week’s piece are fission reactors, which split heavy atoms (such as uranium) to release energy. This is the same process that has powered conventional nuclear plants for decades, miniaturised and modernised.

Crucially, fusion avoids the two risks that have defined public anxiety about nuclear power. There is no possibility of a runaway chain reaction (the Chernobyl scenario), and no long-lived radioactive waste requiring storage for thousands of years. As Piefer put it, fusion is nuclear energy, but without the core risks of fission.

But the catch is formidable. Confining plasma at temperatures exceeding 100 million degrees remains one of humanity’s hardest engineering challenges. Despite decades of research and billions in private investment — Commonwealth Fusion Systems alone has raised over $2 billion — no fusion reactor has produced commercial electricity.

Fusion is already in aviation

Before getting to the long-term energy vision, it is worth noting that fusion technology is already touching aviation in a very specific way.

Piefer described how SHINE, via its Phoenix Imaging Center, uses neutrons generated by fusion reactions to inspect modern jet engine turbine blades. These blades operate above their own melting point, kept intact by intricate internal cooling channels through which compressed cold air is pumped. Manufacturing defects in those channels, invisible to conventional X-rays, can cause catastrophic engine failure. Fusion-generated neutrons can see what X-rays cannot, and SHINE is already selling this service to defence and aerospace customers.

It is a niche application, but it makes an important point: fusion’s value to aviation is already being proven through its by-products, before electricity even enters the frame.

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10 million to one

For power-to-liquid SAF, where each tonne of e-kerosene requires 30 to 50 megawatt-hours of electricity, the cost of energy is everything. Fusion can potentially transform the economics of making it.

Windridge reinforced the point from the supply side: Fusion fuel from deuterium in seawater, with lithium for breeding, is so abundant that fuel cost is unlikely to constrain long‑term fusion economics; instead, overall costs will be driven mainly by the complexity and capital cost of reactors, blankets, and supporting infrastructure. Piefer compared the trajectory to semiconductors: an industry that has seen trillions of times improvement in cost performance over 70 years, driven by the same principle of near-unlimited scalability.

But when?

The panel converged on a rough timeline: energy breakeven by the early 2030s, first electricity by the mid-2030s, and commercial rollout beginning in the 2040s.

All three acknowledged the old joke that fusion is always 20 years away, but argued the landscape has fundamentally changed. A decade ago, the sector was dominated by government-funded megaprojects like ITER, a machine Windridge described as the size of a cathedral, when we want something more the size of a church.

Today, private companies with commercial discipline are building smaller, asking how to reach profitability, and generating revenue along the way from intermediate products like medical isotopes and superconducting magnets. SHINE is already building a half-billion-dollar facility to produce 20 million doses of medical isotopes per year using fusion-generated neutrons.

Ward drew a useful comparison to SpaceX: the ambition is Mars, but the business runs on commercialising low Earth orbit. Fusion companies need the same kind of stepping-stone economics to fund the journey to grid-scale power. The consensus was that fusion will be commercially useful — in medicine, inspection, and materials — long before it produces electricity at scale.

What this means for SAF

The timeline matters because of where aviation’s mandates are heading. The EU’s SAF obligation ramps to 70% by 2050, with a dedicated sub-mandate for e-fuels. The UK’s PtL targets reach their full ambition in the same period. Meeting those volumes will require clean electricity at a scale and cost that intermittent renewables alone are unlikely to provide.

And where fission can already offer SAF producers pink hydrogen competitive with green hydrogen, fusion’s promise is an energy source that keeps getting cheaper with no fuel-cost floor. That is the trajectory that could eventually bring e-kerosene within reach of price parity with conventional jet fuel.

Engage early

Windridge’s parting advice? In every major energy transition, the people who engaged early were the ones who did best. The risk with fusion is that it arrives, and your industry is not ready.

Ward’s closing remark landed the same point from a different angle: innovation has to be better and cheaper than its predecessors at scale. That principle applies equally to the reactor and the fuel it produces.

For anyone in aviation watching the PtL space: plan for fission now. But keep fusion in your peripheral vision. The technology that powers the first wave of nuclear SAF plants may not be the technology powering them in 2050.

Here are the key highlights of the conversation:

• Ryanair’s 12.5% SAF target for 2030 (4:04)

• Balancing growth with emissions intensity (8:30)

• Building a SAF supplier ecosystem (12:52)

• Trinity College partnership and SAF pre-certification (16:17)

• Navigating 1G, 2G and 3G SAF and the FEETs mechanism (20:54)

• What it would take to turbocharge SAF development (27:24)

• Rapid Fire! (41:08)

Keep reading for a detailed overview of the episode.

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Why Ryanair set SAF targets before EU mandates existed

When Ryanair set its 12.5% SAF target for 2030 around five years ago, the EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation regulation had yet to be introduced. The airline’s decision reflected a strategic bet on market signals rather than regulatory compliance.

“We set that 12.5% target about five years ago, before any SAF mandate in Europe,” Fitzgerald explains. “We see SAF as the most scalable decarbonisation solution for aviation. At the time, however, production wasn’t ramping up fast enough, so it was important to send a clear signal that long-term demand would be there.”

At its core, the decision addressed a classic coordination problem: SAF producers need long-term offtake agreements to justify capital-intensive investments, while airlines are reluctant to commit without clarity on supply and pricing. By setting a public target, Ryanair sought to signal credible future demand and help catalyse SAF supply.

However, the SAF market has evolved more slowly than anticipated, which could make it challenging for the airline to meet its SAF target, says Fitzgerald. “There are still elements of that target at risk, as the SAF market in Europe hasn’t developed as we expected five years ago. So challenges will arise as we work to meet it.”

4 takeaways from the conversation

1. Applying the low-cost discipline to fuel efficiency

SAF alone will not get Ryanair to its emissions targets, says Fitzgerald. The airline’s SBTi-validated goal is to reduce CO2 per passenger kilometre by 27% by 2031, bringing it down to 48 grams.

Beyond fleet, Ryanair is retrofitting its 737 NG aircraft with Split Scimitar Winglets, which could reduce the Irish airline’s carbon emissions by around 165,000 tonnes of CO2 annually. The carrier is also adopting variable cost index flight planning, and increasing the use of ground power units to reduce fuel burn on the ground.

2. Building a SAF supplier ecosystem

Ryanair’s SAF procurement strategy is built around scale and competition. Its annual tender process sees up to 40 suppliers compete to deliver volumes across more than 220 airports in 36 countries, says Fitzgerald.

He also outlines the three criteria Ryanair uses to evaluate SAF partners:

• Credibility: proven track record in renewable fuels, often drawing on experience from the road fuel sector

• Scale: how well a supplier aligns with Ryanair’s network, especially in key markets

• Ambition: a commitment to developing advanced SAF pathways beyond conventional HEFA

Ryanair’s partnership with Northern Ireland-based Catagen, illustrates its emphasis on diverse SAF pathways. Through its patented modular reactor technology, Catagen aims to produce SAF from waste biomass at distributed locations, closer to airports and renewable energy sources.

Diversification across suppliers also serves a commercial purpose. By maintaining a broad supplier base, Ryanair aims to reduce supply risk and introduce competitive pressure on pricing as the SAF market develops.

3. Investing in research that benefits the whole industry

In 2024, Ryanair extended its research partnership with Trinity College Dublin through to the end of the decade, committing a further €2.5 million to fund the Ryanair Sustainable Aviation Research Centre, bringing total funding to €4 million.

Launched in 2021 with an initial €1.5 million investment, the research centre focuses on advancing sustainable aviation through research into SAF, zero-carbon propulsion technologies and non-CO2 emissions.

This significantly reduces the cost and volume required for early-stage testing, making it easier for new SAF pathways to enter certification. By identifying viable candidates early, the tool also helps streamline development and lowers the risk for producers working on emerging technologies.

Trinity’s research also looks at lifecycle emissions across SAF supply chains, including the impact of transporting feedstocks and fuels over long distances. The aim is to better understand how much of the claimed emissions benefit holds up across the full value chain.

4. Advocating for smarter policy, not less regulation

As SAF mandates begin to take effect, Ryanair’s attention has shifted from compliance to policy design. The key question is whether current mechanisms, especially within the EU-ETS, are strong enough to support real market growth.

Under the FEETS (Fuels Eligible under ETS) mechanism, in principle, airlines that procure power-to-liquid SAF at European airports can recover up to 95% of the price premium through ETS allowances, says Fitzgerald. In practice, however, the uptake remains limited. Of the 20 million allowances available this decade under FEETS, only a small fraction has been used, largely because third-generation SAF is not yet available at commercial scale.

“If [airlines] had the assurance that FEETs would support them [long-term], I think it could really turbocharge SAF production.”

Alongside this, revenue certainty mechanisms under development in the UK, and being considered in the EU, could help de-risk investment by providing greater price clarity for producers. However, Fitzgerald notes that this has also created a wait-and-see dynamic, with some market participants delaying long-term commitments until the details are finalised.

Ryanair’s approach shows that even the most cost-sensitive airlines are willing to engage with SAF. The constraint is no longer willingness, but availability, and the industry’s ability to scale supply without breaking its economics.

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• Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) remains below 1% of global jet fuel supply, and the most promising long-term pathway — e-fuels (also known as power-to-liquids) — faces a fundamental energy problem: it requires enormous quantities of constant, low-carbon electricity that renewables alone struggle to provide reliably.

• Nuclear energy, and small modular reactors (SMRs) in particular, could solve this. Running at ~95% capacity with a fraction of the land footprint of renewables, SMRs offer the always-on baseload power that industrial-scale SAF production needs.

• A single Rolls-Royce SMR, paired with Equilibrion’s Eq.flight technology, could produce over 160 million litres of SAF per year — roughly a third of the UK’s entire 2040 power-to-liquids target from one facility.

• The economics are improving: nuclear-derived “pink hydrogen” is already cheaper per kilogram than green hydrogen, and policy tailwinds are building in both the UK and EU.

• This isn’t a near-term fix. Nuclear SAF is a decade-plus infrastructure play, but for an industry that needs fuel at scale and reliably for decades, it may be the most credible long-duration backbone yet identified.

SAF accounts for less than 1% of global jet fuel supply, even as European mandates are in place, and with countries such as Singapore and Thailand following suit.

That supply crunch is particularly acute when it comes to so-called e-fuels, where you need substantial quantities of reliable, low-carbon electricity to produce them. A growing number of voices in aviation now believe nuclear energy is well positioned to solve this problem; prominent among them is Emirates President Sir Tim Clark.

In our January 2026 trends report “What could strengthen aviation’s decarbonisation efforts?” we identified new nuclear — particularly small modular reactors (SMRs) — as one of five technologies with the potential to reshape aviation’s energy landscape. That case has only strengthened since then.

The e-fuels energy bottleneck

The power-to-liquids (PtL or e-fuels) pathway involves using electricity to split water into hydrogen via electrolysis, capturing CO2 from the atmosphere, and combining the two to synthesise a liquid hydrocarbon, which is a drop-in fuel, meaning it works like conventional jet fuel. It is widely regarded as the cleanest SAF pathway, which is why both the European Union and United Kingdom have an e-fuels sub-mandate under the broader SAF mandate.

Renewables such as wind and solar are essential to the energy transition, but they come with well-documented limitations for industrial-scale fuel production: intermittency, large land requirements, and the need for expensive energy storage to maintain continuous operation.

Nuclear energy sidesteps most of these constraints. A reactor operates at capacity factors of around 95%, producing steady baseload power regardless of weather or time of day. Its land footprint is a fraction of that of an equivalent renewable installation. And its lifecycle carbon intensity is comparable to wind, among the lowest of any energy source.

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Enter the small modular reactor

The nuclear technology attracting most attention in aviation circles is not the conventional gigawatt-scale plant, but the small modular reactor, or SMR. These are factory-built units typically generating up to 300 megawatts of electricity, designed for faster construction, lower capital risk, and modular deployment close to industrial demand.

One company working at this intersection is Equilibrion, a UK-based project development firm founded to create commercial applications for nuclear energy in hard-to-decarbonise sectors. Its proprietary system, Eq.flight, is specifically engineered to integrate with nuclear electricity and heat for PtL SAF production.

From concept to collaboration

In March 2026, Equilibrion and Rolls-Royce SMR announced a memorandum of understanding to assess how Eq.flight could be powered by the Rolls-Royce SMR design.

“Aviation will only meet its climate commitments if SAF becomes available in large, dependable volumes,” says Caroline Longman, Director at Equilibrion, in an interview with Sustainability in the Air. “Nuclear-derived fuel production offers the reliability, scalability and low carbon intensity needed to deliver that future.”

Longman, whose background spans more than 15 years in major nuclear innovation programmes, frames the opportunity in pragmatic terms. The power-to-liquids pathway is widely acknowledged to be the ultimate long-term solution for SAF, she notes, but it has been held back by the cost and intermittency of renewable power. Nuclear changes that equation.

The economics are moving in the right direction. Analysis by Lazard and others suggests that pink hydrogen, produced via nuclear‑powered electrolysis, could come in at roughly $3.07-4.33 per kilogram unsubsidised, compared with about $4.33–6.05 per kilogram for unsubsidised green hydrogen, reflecting the advantage of nuclear’s higher utilisation rates and more stable baseload‑style output

At the same time, a feasibility study completed by Bristol Airport and Equilibrion, with support from Q8Aviation and pipeline operator Exolum, found that SMRs sited in South West England could generate both SAF and hydrogen for the region.
It projects that this could reduce emissions from Bristol Airport’s flights by 29% relative to current baselines by 2035, while meeting growing demand for flight and ground operations.

Separately, Equilibrion secured UK Department for Transport funding under the Advanced Fuels Fund for its Eq.flight PtL SAF technology, which is designed to pair with nuclear power. They are working with engineering partner Kent on pre‑FEED design for a demonstration plant, targeting operations around 2030–31.

The policy tailwind and sober realities

The timing aligns with a broader shift in energy policy. The UK government’s Advanced Nuclear Framework is designed to attract investment into advanced reactor development, while Great British Energy Nuclear provides an additional institutional anchor. Across the Channel, the European Commission has pledged €200 million to support nuclear technologies and unveiled a strategy to have SMRs operational by the early 2030s. A bloc of nine EU member states led by France has successfully pushed for greater regulatory recognition of nuclear-derived hydrogen — a development that could open significant markets for pink hydrogen and nuclear SAF.

None of this will happen quickly. Given the large capital expenditure required, nuclear projects take longer to build than renewable installations, and first-of-a-kind deployments carry regulatory and financing risks that should not be underestimated. Public acceptance remains uneven, and siting reactors near airports or fuel production hubs will require careful navigation.

But the counterargument is one of timescale and durability. Once operational, a nuclear SAF facility runs for decades, providing long-term employment and energy security that is largely insulated from weather, grid volatility, and geopolitical disruption. Longman estimates that each Eq.flight facility could generate around 10,000 skilled jobs over its lifetime.

As a result, rather than being a silver bullet, nuclear SAF represents a serious, long-duration infrastructure investment. One that, if engineering and economics hold up over the next decade, could provide the always-on energy backbone the industry has been searching for.

Industry Updates

• Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2026 - World Economic Forum

The aviation sector has maintained its net-zero commitment despite persistent structural challenges, shifting focus towards pragmatic, cost-effective decarbonisation pathways. SAF remains central, though policy uncertainty and supply-chain vulnerabilities continue to constrain investment and deployment.

• Abatable report forecasts new demand for 78 million CORSIA credits to cover 2025 emissions - GreenAir News

CORSIA has structurally transformed carbon markets, with demand for eligible credits now expected to reach 200-220 million tonnes during the First Phase. Supply has remained critically constrained by bottlenecks in issuing Letters of Authorisation, though recent acceleration has begun unlocking additional credits.

• Pentagon buys clean fuel tech to lower risk of convoy attacks - POLITICO

A Brooklyn-based startup has commenced manufacturing containerised synthetic fuel units for the Pentagon, aiming to produce sustainable aviation fuel in war zones and reduce reliance on vulnerable fuel convoys.

• Bristol Airport study finds SMRs could supply sustainable aviation fuel and hydrogen for region - New Civil Engineer

A feasibility study has suggested that small modular nuclear reactors in the South West could supply Bristol Airport’s energy needs, potentially reducing flight emissions by 29% by 2035 through nuclear-derived hydrogen and sustainable fuel production.

• Boeing signs multi-year deal with Carbonfuture for carbon removal credits – GreenAir News

Carbonfuture has signed a multi-year agreement with Boeing for at least 40,000 tonnes of durable carbon removal credits sourced from biochar projects, which the manufacturer will apply to address residual emissions from business travel.

• UK net-zero airline goes bust before take-off - Brussels Signal

EcoJet Airlines, the Scottish start-up promoted as the world’s first zero-emission regional carrier, has collapsed into voluntary liquidation without ever operating a commercial passenger flight, citing technological, regulatory and funding challenges.

Infrastructure and operational efficiencies

• MBS International Airport nears completion of $2.3 million solar project with Veregy - SolarQuarter

MBS International Airport is nearing completion of a major solar energy project that has positioned it as a leader in sustainable aviation, featuring the largest solar array at any Michigan airport and covered parking powered entirely by solar energy.

• The intelligent airport of the future: an AI-powered air travel ecosystem orchestrator - IBM

Airports are evolving from human-executed processes to intelligent systems that autonomously operate core functions with human oversight, powered by data and AI to orchestrate seamless operations and passenger experiences.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

• Rolls-Royce & Equilibrion: Creating SAF from nuclear energy - Sustainability Magazine

Rolls-Royce SMR and Equilibrion have partnered to explore nuclear-powered sustainable aviation fuel, aiming to scale low-carbon fuel production for UK and global aviation using small modular reactor technology.

• Southern Energy Renewables announce $1.4 billion methanol and sustainable aviation fuel facility in St. Charles Parish - Louisiana Economic Development

Southern Energy Renewables has announced a $1.4 billion investment to develop a green methanol and sustainable aviation fuel facility in Louisiana, converting wood-waste biomass into low-carbon fuels and creating more than 500 potential new jobs.

• Gevo to expand capacity at North Dakota plant, continues to evaluate SAF project - Biomass Magazine

Gevo has announced plans to expand capacity at its North Dakota ethanol plant to 75 million gallons annually, while aiming to make a final investment decision on an adjacent sustainable aviation fuel project later this year.

• Axens signs MOU with Airbus on SAF development - Biodiesel Magazine

Axens has signed a memorandum of understanding with Airbus to strengthen cooperation on sustainable aviation fuel development, aiming to accelerate technology scale-up and support the industry’s transition toward net-zero emissions by 2050.

• AIRCO develops containerised MAD System for on-demand synthetic fuel - Carbon Herald

AIRCO has introduced a containerised technology platform designed to produce synthetic fuels directly at the point of use, enabling on-site generation in remote or infrastructure-constrained environments for both civilian and defence applications.

• thyssenkrupp Uhde tapped for key study on major Canadian green methanol project - Indian Chemical News

thyssenkrupp Uhde has secured a contract to conduct an integration study for a major biomass-to-methanol project in Nova Scotia, which aims to produce more than 450,000 metric tons of methanol annually using sustainable woody biomass.

• Australians back locally produced sustainable aviation fuel and regional jobs - Biofuels International Magazine

Research commissioned by Sydney Airport finds Australians support a domestic sustainable aviation fuel industry to create regional jobs, support farmers, and process local feedstocks currently exported overseas.

New technology: Electric and Hydrogen

• DOT, FAA pick eight eVTOL pilot projects ahead of summer 2026 flights - AeroTime

The US Department of Transportation has selected eight pilot projects across 26 states to test eVTOL aircraft later in 2026, covering urban air taxi service, cargo operations, emergency response and regional passenger transportation.

• Joby flies first electric air taxi meeting FAA design criteria - Flying Magazine

California-based eVTOL developer Joby Aviation has advanced to testing its first FAA-conforming aircraft, marking its entry into the final phase of certification as it aims to get agency test pilots in the cockpit later this year.

• South African fuel cell milestone signals momentum for hydrogen aviation - Fuel Cells Works

A South African-developed membrane electrode assembly has been successfully validated inside a commercial aviation-grade fuel cell stack for unmanned aircraft, marking a significant milestone towards locally produced hydrogen-electric aviation systems.

• Hypersonix completes first flight of Dart AE hydrogen-fuelled hypersonic aircraft - CompositesWorld

Australian hypersonic flight company Hypersonix Launch Systems has successfully completed the first flight of its Dart AE hypersonic aircraft, gathering invaluable technical data to shape the design of future operational hypersonic systems.

• China’s 10-passenger electric aircraft, the Matrix, hints at how big flying taxis can be - The Seattle Times

A glimpse of the future of flying taxis has been seen in China, where AutoFlight has demonstrated its five-ton Matrix eVTOL, though the industry acknowledges that full commercialisation remains dependent on certification and ecosystem development.

Industry Updates

• SAF prices rise as jet fuel markets tighten amid Middle East war - S&P Global

Sustainable aviation fuel prices have surged to record highs as the Middle East conflict tightens global jet fuel markets, with California reaching an all-time peak.

• Reducing the cost gap for sustainable aviation fuel through policy intervention: A case study of the Netherlands - ICCT

A Dutch study has found that capital grants and market-based incentives currently offer the most effective means of closing the cost gap for advanced sustainable aviation fuels.

• EcoCeres releases new position paper calling for open SAF market - Biomass Magazine

EcoCeres has urged European policymakers to keep the SAF market open and competitive, warning that trade defence measures could undermine climate goals and tighten supply.

• Supercharging SAF uptake: ISCC, OMV and Airbus strengthen credible book and claim approaches - Biodiesel Magazine

ISCC has partnered with OMV and Airbus to strengthen credibility in book-and-claim systems and explore new facilitator roles to support global SAF adoption.

• Singapore Airlines Leads Asian Push for Low-Carbon Flight - The Traveler

Singapore Airlines has emerged as a central force in Asia’s decarbonisation race, catalysing alliances on SAF and fleet upgrades to meet net-zero targets.

• Air France-KLM incurs €7.5m bond penalty on missed GHG intensity target – GreenAir News

Air France-KLM has missed its 2025 sustainability-linked bond target due to fleet delays and geopolitical issues, triggering a €7.5 million cost impact.

Infrastructure and operational efficiencies

• Aurrigo granted ground handling services license at East Midlands Airport with autonomous technology - Passenger Terminal Today

Aurrigo International has secured a ground handling license at East Midlands Airport to support the deployment of its autonomous baggage and cargo technologies.

• Korean Air reduces carbon emissions through operational efficiency - Great Travel Magazine

Korean Air has cut its aircraft carbon emissions by over 420,000 tonnes through fleet modernisation and AI-powered fuel management, despite increased flight operations.

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Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

• Europe’s first domestic flight route using SAF opens - State of Green

Europe's first SAF-powered domestic route launched on 4 March, with Norwegian flying Aalborg–Copenhagen on a 40% SAF blend refined from used cooking oil, cutting ~3,000 tonnes of CO₂ annually under Denmark's national green aviation agreement.

• Syzygy Expands Global SAF Pipeline With New Brazil Biogas Agreement - Carbon Herald

Syzygy Plasmonics has signed an MOU with Geo to develop commercial-scale SAF projects in Brazil, using biogas derived from sugarcane waste.

• Montana Renewables will boost SAF capacity to up to 150 MMgy in Q2 - Biomass Magazine

Calumet’s MaxSAF expansion at Montana Renewables remains on track for Q2 2026, boosting SAF capacity to 120-150 million gallons per year.

• Siemens and CAPHENIA accelerate scale-up of SAF - Biofuels International Magazine

Siemens has partnered with CAPHENIA to scale SAF production, providing automation and digitalisation for plasma technology that converts bio-methane into synthesis gas.

• ECOX Announces Agreements with Kepler GTL to Establish Platform for Gas-to-Liquids Technology - Yahoo

Eco Innovation Group has executed definitive agreements to acquire Kepler GTL, building a platform to convert stranded gas into sustainable aviation fuel.

New technology: Electric and Hydrogen

• Archer Aviation to use Starlink internet in its eVTOL air taxis - Electrek

Archer Aviation has signed an agreement with Starlink to integrate high-speed satellite internet into its Midnight air taxis, supporting connectivity and future autonomy.

• Skyports and Korean Air partner on eVTOL operations platform - Passenger Terminal Today

Skyports Infrastructure and Korean Air have signed an MOU to develop a joint technology platform managing vertiport automation and low-altitude air traffic for eVTOLs.

• First firm order placed for AURA’s ERA regional hybrid-electric aircraft – GreenAir News

AURA AERO has secured the first firm order for its 19-seater hybrid-electric ERA aircraft from French private airline Pan Européenne Air Service.

• ZeroAvia Signs Deal with Korean Atomic Energy Research Institute - Fuel Cells Works

ZeroAvia has signed a deal to support the Korean Atomic Energy Research Institute in developing and testing liquid hydrogen storage systems for aircraft.

• UK airport hopes hydrogen-powered ground equipment will cut emissions - Runway Girl Network

Exeter Airport is conducting a second hydrogen ground power trial in winter conditions, building on last year’s successful multi-equipment demonstration.

• FlyOnE to debut eVTOLs on existing route - Airports International

FlyOnE has introduced eVTOL air taxi operations on the Perth–Rottnest Island corridor, following successful proof-of-concept electric flights and solar-powered charging.

• RTX’s hybrid-electric plane is one step closer to the sky - RTX News

RTX’s hybrid-electric demonstrator has moved a step closer to flight, aiming to show 30% fuel efficiency improvements through its Pratt & Whitney, Collins and H55 collaboration.

The conversation explores the company’s engineering philosophy, its vertically integrated approach to aircraft development, and the early markets where electric aviation is beginning to gain traction.

The Vermont-based manufacturer completed its initial public offering in 2025 and counts partners such as United Therapeutics and UPS among its early customers. GE Aerospace invested about $300 million in the company while it was private, and Amazon recently disclosed a roughly 5.3% stake.

Clark argues that success in electric aviation depends on optimising the entire system rather than individual components. That philosophy has allowed BETA to develop many core technologies in-house, including propulsion systems, batteries and charging infrastructure, while targeting early applications in cargo, medical logistics and defence before expanding into passenger operations.

Here are the key highlights of the conversation:

• The founding story: from college thesis to Martine Rothblatt’s backing (1:54)

• The systems-level economics of electric flight (16:12)

• Strategic market entry: military and medical applications before urban air mobility (19:59)

• Scale-up and industrialisation: building conforming aircraft at volume (26:54)

• Defence applications delivering real revenue (31:37)

• The unexpected charging infrastructure business (39:15)

• The team member culture (44:51)

• Rapid fire! (48:19)

Keep reading for a detailed overview of the episode.

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How battery economics can make electric aviation viable

Since batteries are roughly 30 times less energy-dense compared to conventional jet fuel, critics often argue that electric aircraft cannot work at a meaningful scale. According to Kyle Clark, this framing misses the broader engineering reality.

“People often come to me and say, ‘Hey, electric airplanes don’t fly because batteries are too heavy.’ I say, ‘Too heavy compared to what?’” Clark says. He points to the dramatic weight difference in propulsion systems: “The Lycoming gas engine is 550 pounds. Now we can go pick up our electric motor. It’s a hundred and change. So you’ve reduced the weight of the motor by about five times.”

“When you factor all that in, you end up with a lift-to-drag ratio and propulsive efficiency that are significantly better, about twice as good on leftover drag and roughly three times better on efficiency. At that point, you’ve recovered about half the gap between gasoline and batteries.”

The result: BETA’s aircraft can fly several hundred miles, roughly half the range of an equivalent conventional aircraft. According to Clark, that still opens up what he describes as “a ton of missions”, while delivering a significant economic benefit: “From a systems perspective, the range is still meaningful. The real kicker is that we do it at about a fortieth of the cost of energy.”

BETA has also structured its business model around batteries. The company expects to sell its aircraft for about $4 to $6 million, depending on the configuration, but anticipates significant additional revenue from battery replacements over the aircraft’s lifetime. “Over the life of the airplane, you can sell more than $13 million worth of batteries,” Clark notes.

4 takeaways from the conversation

1. Starting with the right markets

BETA has pursued what Clark characterises as lower-friction entry points, prioritising applications with fewer regulatory and infrastructure barriers, including military operations, medical logistics and cargo.

“Flying in and out of Manhattan, Chicago, or Dallas from the suburbs requires municipal approvals,” Clark explains. “It also requires airspace changes and the construction of new helipads and vertiports,” he adds.

Hospitals and military bases, by contrast, already operate helipads and aviation infrastructure. That makes them natural early adopters.

Cargo operations remove another barrier: public acceptance. “Cargo and logistics removes the variability of convincing thousands of people to get on the airplane, because you only have to convince one person, the loadmaster or the CEO of the cargo company,” Clark shares.

The strategy allows BETA to begin operations in existing aviation environments before expanding into more complex urban missions.

2. How BETA built its charging solutions

BETA’s charging infrastructure began as a practical solution rather than a standalone business strategy.

“We wanted to do a lot of flying, and nobody made a charger for high voltage, high rate, level three charging. So we went out and built it,” Clark recalls.

After developing the system for internal use, Beta realised it would need to certify the equipment in order to deploy it widely at airports, which led the company to refine it into a commercial product that could support broader operations.

Demand quickly followed. Operators and airports began asking to purchase the chargers themselves, turning what began as an internal tool into a commercial product. The network now “goes almost all the way up and down the East Coast,” Clark says, with expansion underway across the United States and internationally. “We’ve also put our foot down in a couple of places internationally. We’re deploying charging systems for Abu Dhabi Airports.”

“You can charge a car or a package delivery van… UPS can charge its van and its airplane in the same place. It’s all designed to be thoughtful, interoperable, and multimodal.”

Clark believes that BETA’s charging solutions could become just as strategically significant as its aircraft. “I think at the end of the day, the charging network may be as valuable as the aircraft because they’re going out fast, especially this year.”

3. Defence applications and early revenue

Defence has quietly become one of BETA’s most important early markets. Clark says the company has secured “a large number of defence contracts,” though it has spoken about them publicly far less than many of its competitors.

eVTOL aircraft could offer several advantages in military operations, and BETA’s design aligns with key military requirements such as low cost, low thermal signature, and reduced noise, says Clark.

For longer-range missions, the company is working with GE Aerospace on hybrid-electric configurations using turbogenerators. These systems will extend the range of the aircraft while retaining the operational benefits of distributed electric propulsion.

Clark says the defence work is already translating into revenue, and contrasts their approach with competitors who focus heavily on announcements. “When I look at our competitors’ fact sheets, they may have a lot of pretty pictures. But they aren’t recognising revenue, which means they aren’t delivering a valuable product. That’s what we’re doing.”

4. A culture built around “team members”

BETA’s organisational culture differs from that of many aerospace companies. Every employee carries the title “team member” regardless of role, and all receive equity in the company.

BETA also encourages employees to experience aviation directly. Anyone in the company can learn to fly, and many team members begin training as student pilots.

Coordination across the company happens through regular meetings held three times a week, where every team outlines their contribution to quarterly and annual goals. Clark describes it as maintaining focus across a complex organisation: “You don’t lose focus. You say, this is your contribution to focusing that laser beam down the way.”

The approach reflects the same systems-level thinking that shapes BETA’s engineering philosophy: aligning many small contributions toward a single, clearly defined goal.

As electric aviation moves from concept to deployment, BETA’s approach offers one possible blueprint: combine engineering optimisation with pragmatic market entry. The coming years will determine whether that strategy can translate early momentum into a scalable new category of aircraft.

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Wakina Mutembei, who leads sustainability and innovation at Kenya Airways, opened with a story that captured the absurdity of SAF’s current geography. When the airline operated its first SAF-powered long-haul flight in 2023 (the first by any African carrier), the fuel had been refined in Italy. But the feedstocks used in it had actually originated in Kenya.

That circular journey, feedstocks leaving Africa only to return as expensive fuel, framed the entire discussion on a panel exploring how developing regions could shift from being raw material suppliers to SAF producers in their own right.

The feedstock map

Each panelist brought a different regional picture, but the common thread was abundance.

In Kenya, it is used cooking oil and animal fats. Mutembei noted that Kenya Airways has been working with local producers and the Kenyan government to develop incentives for SAF production and for airlines to uplift SAF from Nairobi. The airline won three awards at the SkyTeam Aviation Challenge for its sustainability initiatives, including best approach to scaling SAF, built around a partnership to establish Kenya’s first SAF production plant using feedstock cultivated on degraded mining land in Kwale County.

Meanwhile, in Cameroon, Marvin Tabi of WESAF Energy Solutions is developing a sugarcane-to-ethanol project on a 322-hectare site, with SAF as the highest-value end market. His approach is deliberately unglamorous: proven feedstocks, proven conversion pathways, with ICAO now funding a national feasibility study that could outline the pathway for further projects. “We’re not doing anything out of the blue,” Tabi said. “Sugarcane, agricultural waste, forestry waste, [these are] things we’ve got in abundance.”

Commenting on the work Tabi is doing in Cameroon, Nigam said “I love your almost boring approach. Boring feedstock, boring pathways. We just want to be part of the ecosystem, and that’s actually good because it reduces the risk. It de-risks the entire process.”

Gibson noted that Pakistan is “very, very favourable for used cooking oil generation,” though the quality can be challenging. “It’s almost like crude oil when you see it coming out of some of these restaurants.”

In the Gulf, Sami Kamel of Dutco Group outlined a different proposition centred on e-SAF. The region’s competitive advantage lies in some of the world’s cheapest renewable energy, which translates into green hydrogen at $3 to $3.50 per kilogram.

Combined with available CO2 sources and deep-water port infrastructure, Kamel argued that the Gulf offers “sweet spots” for large-scale e-SAF production targeting the EU and UK markets. Dutco is developing three projects: an e-SAF plant in Oman leveraging a 1-million-tonne green ammonia project, a bio-SAF facility using molasses from a Dubai sugar refinery, and a potential synthetic ethanol import operation from Brazil.

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Book-and-claim as the great equaliser

The most strategically significant part of the discussion centred on how book-and-claim certification could transform the economics of SAF production in developing regions.

Mutembei made the following argument:

Mutembei said that the overall opportunity was three-fold: “One, to retain our feedstocks. Two, to create employment. And three, to produce SAF that is cheaper for the European and UK markets.”

De-risking in harder markets

The panel was realistic about the obstacles. Building SAF production capacity in developing regions is fundamentally different from doing so in Europe or the US, and each speaker highlighted a different dimension of the challenge.

His approach is to start small, demonstrate execution, build the supply chain piece by piece, and then scale. “We don’t want to pioneer, we don’t want to be the number one region everyone gets excited about. We just want to be in the game.”

Kamel described a different model: getting feedstock suppliers and offtakers to take equity positions in the project itself. In Dutco’s molasses-to-SAF project in Dubai, the sugar refinery owners are taking a minority stake.

In the green hydrogen projects, offtakers are also becoming equity partners. “When we’re signing the offtake agreement, it’s really with an equity partner in the project who will also market the final product,” he explained. The approach ties everyone’s incentives together, but it also highlights a structural gap: project lenders want ten- to fifteen-year offtake agreements, while most buyers are only willing to commit to five.

Gibson emphasised the importance of having all the pieces aligned from day one: feedstock, technology, offtake, and funding.

“Is this carbon colonialism?”

One of the most contentious moments came during the audience Q and As.

Using the conference online form, an anonymous questioner asked whether EU fuel suppliers charging high SAF premiums amounted to a tax on African airlines that had no say in designing the mandates.

According to Mutembei, “Of course it’s not fair.” But she reframed it by pointing out that the cost of producing SAF in Kenya is lower than in Europe, and that if book-and-claim is permitted, the mandate creates a market that African producers can serve at a competitive advantage.

The argument was echoed by Gibson, who pointed to capital cost efficiency as a fundamental advantage for projects in Africa and Southeast Asia. A HEFA plant built in Egypt or Kenya, with access to local feedstock, can achieve significantly lower capital costs per tonne than an equivalent European facility. “That’s a key area where Africa can compete,” he said.

What needs to happen

The panel closed with each speaker offering a three-year outlook. Mutembei pointed to Kenya’s 90% renewable energy grid as a foundation for future e-SAF production, alongside the nearer-term HEFA opportunity.

Kamel called for the EU to relax biogenic CO2 requirements, which currently constrain e-SAF projects in the Gulf, where fossil-derived CO2 from refineries and petrochemical plants is abundant. Tabi reiterated his theme of execution over ambition: prove the supply chain works at a small scale, then grow.

The feedstocks are there. The energy costs are lower. The capital costs can be lower. What is missing is the supply chain infrastructure, regulatory alignment (particularly on book-and-claim mandates), and investment flows to connect Global South production to Global North demand.

Industry Updates

• Joby and Uber reveal electric air taxi booking platform - Aviation International News

Joby Aviation and Uber have unveiled the app interface for their upcoming air taxi service, with plans to launch in Dubai this year as certification progresses in the US.

• California LAO recommends against proposed SAF tax credit - Ethanol Producer Magazine

California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office has recommended lawmakers reject Governor Newsom’s proposed SAF tax credit, citing concerns over the diesel excise incentive tied to carbon intensity scores.

• Archer sues Vertical for alleged eVTOL patent infringement - Aerospace Testing International

Archer has filed a patent infringement complaint against Vertical Aerospace, alleging the UK company’s Valo eVTOL copies key design features of its Midnight aircraft.

Infrastructure and operational efficiencies

• Honolulu Airport adds electric Wiki Wiki trams - Environment+Energy Leader

Three new electric trams have joined Honolulu’s Wiki Wiki shuttle service under an “as-a-service” model, delivering quieter, emission-free transport between terminals.

• South Korea turns to hydrogen power for its new unmanned ground vehicle - Next Gen Defense

South Korea has unveiled the “Black Veil,” a hydrogen-powered unmanned ground vehicle designed for stealthy, long-endurance missions in high-threat military environments.

• Jet2.com cuts carbon emissions with completion of multi-million pound winglet retrofit - Jet2

Jet2.com has completed a two-year programme to install Split Scimitar Winglets on 74 Boeing 737-800s, cutting annual carbon emissions by over 28,000 tonnes.

• Birmingham Airport unveils plan to reach net-zero operational emissions by 2033 - Edie

Birmingham Airport has set out a net-zero roadmap covering Scope 1 and 2 emissions, with on-site solar, fleet electrification and renewable electricity supplies.

• JFK Terminal 4 awarded LEED Platinum re-certification - Passenger Terminal Today

JFK’s Terminal 4 has been re-certified at LEED Platinum level following a $1.5 billion transformation that introduced electric buses, rainwater harvesting and SAF purchases.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

• Patagonia $2.5 billion eSAF project starts engagement process with investors - GreenAir News

Developers have begun engaging investors for a large-scale power-to-liquid SAF project in Patagonia, targeting 100,000 tonnes annually using wind energy and seawater.

• LanzaJet announces $47 million in new capital, first close of equity round - Biomass Magazine

LanzaJet has closed the first part of a $135 million funding round co-led by IAG and Shell, supporting commercial deployment of its ethanol-to-jet technology.

• Honeywell process technology to help Verso Energy accelerate eSAF production - Honeywell

Honeywell’s eFining methanol-to-jet technology will be used across seven planned Verso Energy sites in Europe and the US, producing an estimated 200 million gallons of eSAF annually.

• Air bp signs agreement with Airbus for aviation services and fuel supply in Europe - Biomass Magazine

Air bp has signed a multi-year contract to supply conventional jet fuel and SAF to Airbus operations across Germany and Spain.

• Petrobras selects Topsoe for SAF blending component and renewable diesel projects - Hydrocarbon Engineering

Petrobras has selected Topsoe’s HydroFlex technology for a potential renewable diesel and SAF project at its Boaventura Energy Complex in Brazil.

• Siemens and CAPHENIA accelerate scale-up of Sustainable Aviation Fuel - Siemens

Siemens has partnered with CAPHENIA to scale SAF production, providing digitalisation and automation for plasma technology that converts bio-methane into synthesis gas.

• UK’s Carbon Neutral Fuels chooses Johnson Matthey and Honeywell Technologies for SAF - Indian Chemicals

Carbon Neutral Fuels has selected Johnson Matthey and Honeywell UOP technologies for its UK e-fuels facility, targeting 25,000 tonnes of SAF annually from 2031.

• Swedavia expands sustainable aviation fuel procurement with new municipal participation - International Airport Review

Swedavia has expanded its annual SAF procurement to include Luleå Municipality and Aviator Airport Alliance, reducing business travel emissions through joint purchasing.

New technology: Electric and Hydrogen

• Vertical Aerospace pitches Valo eVTOL air taxi services for South Florida - Aviation International News

Vertical Aerospace has displayed its Valo eVTOL mock-up in Miami, proposing air taxi routes between the city, Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale with 2028 certification targeted.

• Clean Aviation officially launches four projects to advance next-gen regional aircraft by 2035 - Aerospace Global News

ATR, Pratt & Whitney and Safran have launched four projects under the EU Clean Aviation initiative, aiming for a 30% CO2 reduction through hybrid-electric regional aircraft.

• Korean Air and Skyports sign MoU to Advance Air Mobility tech integration - Commercial UAV News

Skyports Infrastructure and Korean Air have signed an MoU to develop an integrated technology platform managing vertiport automation and low-altitude air traffic for eVTOLs.

• An inside look at Beta Technologies’ big plans for Vermont - VTDigger

Beta Technologies is planning to double its Vermont workforce and expand its manufacturing facility as it ramps up production of its electric aircraft.

But across three panels on the first day of the conference, covering airline-backed venture capital, market intermediation, and public-market financial analysis, a more complex picture emerged.

Organising airline capital

Matt Ridley, oneworld’s director of sustainability and innovation, opened the three investment-focused sessions by explaining why airlines needed a fundamentally different approach to SAF funding.

“Airlines are much better at moving in a peloton,” Ridley said. “They’re much happier inside a herd.”

The solution was the oneworld Breakthrough Energy Ventures Fund, a dedicated SAF investment vehicle launched last year, in which Breakthrough Energy acts as general partner, making full-time investment decisions that airline executives could never commit to on a part-time basis. Seven of the eight airlines that joined had never made a fund investment before.

The fund is targeting $150-250 million and investing at Series A and B in technologies that could bring SAF costs down to parity with fossil fuel plus carbon price plus compliance costs.

Ridley was candid about why this matters: asking airline boardrooms to pay two to three times the price of conventional jet fuel is a losing proposition over the long term.

If Ridley addressed how capital is being organised at the top of the funnel, Natasha Mann, founder of Future Energy Global, described the plumbing being built in the middle. Mann is applying a similar aggregation model to SAF, matching long-term supplier offtakes with portfolios of airline and corporate buyers and managing delivery risk across both sides, much as a lessor manages aircraft placement risk.

The company delivered 35,000 tonnes of carbon abatement and captured roughly 2% of the voluntary market in its first active year.

Landmark deals included a first-of-its-kind intermediary arrangement with Microsoft for Scope 3 certificates from Asia, multi-year offtakes with Gevo and Montana Renewables, and a book-and-claim pilot involving JetBlue, DHL, Atlas Air, SAS, and others.

Mann was philosophical about the Trump disruption: “All we’ve done is we’ve taken a few keywords out and changed them with others, like impact. But there’s no slowing down this business.”

She noted that purchasing decisions are increasingly moving from chief sustainability officers to chief procurement officers, a positive sign that SAF is becoming embedded in business operations, but one that demands a sharper commercial narrative around local economic impact, energy independence, and supply chain resilience.

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The financial reality check

The third panel featured two financial analysts: Naisheng Cui from Barclays, who covers European energy majors, including Neste, and Adam Forsyth from Longspur Capital, who focuses on pre-production clean energy developers.

Forsyth set the tone by noting that what distinguishes SAF from other clean energy sectors is the existence of real, signed offtake contracts. “We still have companies coming to us with what I call the field of dreams fallacy. Build it and they will come. Well, no they won’t.”

Forsyth was equally blunt about the quality of some pre-contractual commitments. “LOI? Letter of imagination. MOU? Murmuring of unicorns.” The SAF sector, he said, has less of this problem than other parts of clean energy, which is a genuinely positive signal for investors.

On the demand side, Cui described fuel suppliers capturing significant margins as intermediaries rather than producers. He pointed to Shell, which took a €1.2 billion impairment on its 820,000-tonne SAF refinery in Rotterdam after shareholders pressured management to step back from production.

Instead, Shell has adopted what Cui called a “trading, not asset-backed” strategy: buying SAF cheaply from producers in Thailand and China, aggregating it, blending it with conventional jet fuel, and selling it to airlines at roughly three times the normal jet fuel premium. With only a handful of major fuel suppliers to choose from, airlines have limited room to shop around.

Forsyth highlighted the feedstock challenge facing the sector. The supply chain for biofuel-based SAF is fundamentally different from traditional oil refining. Neste sources from 600 suppliers across 60 countries, and hedging is extremely difficult when feedstock prices bear no correlation to the jet fuel price at which SAF is sold.

That demand for feedstock is very real was illustrated by one colourful example. “I don’t know if you’ve seen the news,” Forsyth said, “but in the Highlands of Scotland, there have been 147 thefts of used cooking oil bins from the back of fish and chip shops.”

The thread connecting all three

Taken together, the three panels painted a picture of an industry at an inflection point. Production is scaling: 1.9 million tonnes in 2025 is real. But the financial architecture around it remains underdeveloped.

The common thread is that SAF cannot scale on goodwill or mandates alone. It needs functioning financial markets, with proper risk allocation, price discovery, and diverse sources of capital, to bridge the gap between where the industry is today and where it needs to be by 2030.