Aviation's green leap: SAF panel says we will need 10x more plants to meet 2030 goals
Currently, there are 33 active facilities, with around 130 more announced against a requirement of 300 plants by 2030.
On the final day of the SAF Congress in Amsterdam, a panel of industry experts discussed the global sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) landscape in light of recent climate conferences, particularly COP28 in Dubai.
The panel, moderated by Shashank Nigam, founder and CEO of SimpliFlying, delved into the challenges and opportunities the aviation sector now faces.
In addition to Nigam, the panel featured Aaron Robinson, Vice President of Sustainable Aviation Fuel - U.S. at International Airlines Group (IAG), Dick Benschop, interim CEO of Mission Possible Partnership, and Haldane Dodd, Executive Director of Air Transport Group.
According to Benschop, while the industry is making strides, it still has a considerable journey ahead, with an almost 10-fold increase in SAF plants required in the next six years:
"Throughout the world, there are currently 33 facilities producing sustainable aviation fuel at a commercial scale, with around 130 more announced. However, to reach the 2030 targets, we need about 300 SAF plants globally."
While scaling up production is an enormous challenge, the panel noted a positive development: a general growth in SAF use, with airline groups like IAG witnessing a 400% increase year over year.
Why airlines should consider long-term risks
Nonetheless, SAF still accounts for a mere fraction of total fuel use. Here, Robinson stressed the importance of long-term thinking as the pressure on the industry to decarbonise will increase progressively.
In response to Nigam's question about what an airline head of sustainability should say to a CFO who questions the rationale of purchasing expensive SAF when mandates in the EU and UK only kick in next year, Robinson said that to justify SAF investments today, airlines need to consider the long-term costs and risks of not decarbonising, including potential demand destruction and reputational damage.
In particular, Robinson argued that the costs of not decarbonising could be higher than those of transitioning to SAF and other solutions:
"Not decarbonising, not being sustainable, is far more expensive. And that's what we must think about in any of these decision-making processes.”
Local solutions to local challenges
One of the key challenges discussed was the regional variation in SAF feedstock composition. Dodd noted that a one-size-fits-all global approach is improbable. "Each country needs to take its own path to a certain extent, taking advantage of local opportunities and the most efficient use of resources," he said.
The panellists also emphasised the importance of minimum sustainability criteria and standards for SAF to foster trust with governments and customers. Efforts are underway to streamline and harmonise industry accounting, certification, and registries.
In an earlier keynote address at the SAF Congress, Nigam showed that India had the highest share of aircraft orders last year. As a result, does it matter what happens in Europe when growth will be in Asia?
In response, Dodd said that the so-called Global South is strongly interested in producing SAF. As a result, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is developing a financing vehicle to mobilise investment in these countries. "There's a huge amount of interest across the world not just for sustainability reasons, but also for economic reasons," said Dodd.
The panellists agreed that book-and-claim accounting would be pivotal for the next 15+ years to efficiently scale up SAF use, given that SAF supply will be available at scale only in certain regions in the medium term.
Looking ahead, the panellists were hopeful that the industry can accelerate its progress and meet its decarbonisation goals. Dodd noted that the building blocks are being implemented, and the sector's strong global coordination is advantageous.
"We are actually getting this done. We need to build faster, yes. And we need to build them bigger. But we are actually getting this done," he said.