At the 2025 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Mohammed Alkhuraisi, EVP of Strategy & Business Intelligence at Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA), sat down with Simpliflying CEO Shashank Nigam and outlined the kingdom’s ambitious vision for its aviation sector. Alkhuraisi also discussed the nation’s plan to triple its aviation capacity while maintaining environmental sustainability – a balancing act that exemplifies the challenges facing the global aviation industry.
As part of its Vision 2030 blueprint for economic diversification, Saudi Arabia sees aviation as key to boosting tourism and economic growth. With 29 airports serving a population of nearly 35 million and a landmass comparable to Western Europe, the kingdom’s reliance on air transport is both strategic and necessary.
The contradiction at the heart of Saudi’s plans
The scale of Saudi Arabia’s aviation ambitions is staggering. The kingdom currently maintains a fleet of 240 aircraft, shares Alkhuraisi, but this number is set to increase dramatically. “In order to realise our Vision 2030 target of 150 million tourism visits, which translates to around 330 million passengers, we need to triple the size of our fleet, and that is what we aim to do,” he adds.
The kingdom’s commitment to growth is evidenced by the substantial aircraft orders placed by Saudi airlines. “The book orders as it stands today are around 475 aircraft,” Alkhuraisi notes. These orders span multiple airlines, including the national carrier Saudia, the newly established Riyadh Air, flyadeal and flynas, which secured the largest Airbus narrowbody deal in 2024.
However, alongside this expansion, Saudi Arabia has introduced comprehensive sustainability initiatives. The Civil Aviation Environmental Sustainability Program (CAESP) is aimed at achieving net-zero aviation emissions by 2060. As Alkhuraisi emphasises, “Growing alone is challenging but achievable. Achieving sustainability alone is also doable but challenging. But growing sustainably is the name of the game.”
Understanding market dynamics
Unlike many global aviation hubs, Saudi Arabia’s market presents unique characteristics. The country operates 29 airports, serving a market that is equally split between domestic and international traffic.
“About 50% of our market is domestic passengers who fly within the Kingdom from one point to another, and the other 50% is international traffic,” Alkhuraisi explains.
Remarkably, the international transfer traffic remains a small fraction of Saudi Arabia’s aviation market, with just 3.84 million transfer passengers out of a total of 128 million in 2024. Instead, the country’s aviation growth is largely fueled by point-to-point traffic, rather than hub connections.
Alkhuraisi highlights the current market dynamics, which show notable supply constraints. “Demand is nearly double the supply we have,” he notes. This shortage manifests in both limited route connectivity and elevated ticket prices, highlighting the urgent need for capacity expansion, he adds.
Major events driving growth
Saudi Arabia’s aviation expansion is underpinned by a series of major international events. The country is set to host the AFC Asian Cup in 2027, followed by Expo 2030 and the FIFA World Cup in 2034. “We have a lot of giga projects and upcoming important milestones”, says Alkhuraisi. “And I don't think we would stop there. But at least that’s the 10-year horizon.”
These events complement the kingdom’s ambitious tourism development projects. “In order to enable tourism, you need a robust aviation system,” Alkhuraisi emphasises. Moreover, the development of destinations like Neom, the Red Sea Global, and AlUla necessitates significant aviation capacity to ensure accessibility for international visitors, he adds.
The promise of sustainable aviation
Saudi Arabia’s approach to aviation sustainability is comprehensive, encompassing airports, airlines, ground services, and air navigation. The CAESP program, spearheaded by GACA, coordinates efforts across airports, airlines, ground services, and air navigation to reduce environmental impact.
“The beauty of [CAESP] is that it’s a comprehensive and cohesive program,” explains Alkhuraisi. “It looks into airports, airlines, ground services, air navigation.” This integrated approach has already yielded notable achievements, including the development of the Red Sea Airport, which Alkhuraisi describes as “the first carbon-neutral airport in the region, one of the few in the world.”
The kingdom is also exploring various pathways to reduce emissions, including sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). “We’re looking at all the options that we have available today, whether LCAF (Lower Carbon Aviation Fuel), SAF, says Alkhuraisi. “Saudi is transitioning into an energy powerhouse rather than an oil powerhouse”, says Alkhuraisi, suggesting potential domestic production of sustainable aviation fuels in the future.
The importance of market development
Saudi Arabia’s aviation strategy extends beyond capacity expansion to include structural market development. The country has identified two core priorities: serving domestic travel needs and ensuring global connectivity: “We need to serve domestic needs, and we need to ensure that Saudis are connected to the most important destinations globally,” Alkhuraisi explains, emphasising the importance of developing both inbound and outbound traffic flows.
The kingdom’s approach to market development involves introducing multiple airlines to serve different market segments. Beyond the established presence of Saudia and the launch of Riyadh Air, the authorities see potential for additional carriers.
“We have tendered for a licence for a new airline operating certificate (AOC) in Dammam,” explains Alkhuraisi, discussing plans for a new carrier in Saudi Arabia’s eastern economic hub. “We’re considering additional airline licenses in the future. But we don’t want to get ahead of ourselves. We will do it gradually.”
A cautiously optimistic outlook
Saudi Arabia's aviation development strategy offers insights into how rapidly growing markets can address contemporary challenges in air transport. The integration of environmental considerations from the outset, rather than as an afterthought, represents a notable departure from historical aviation development patterns.
The kingdom’s approach differs from traditional aviation growth models in several ways. Rather than focusing solely on hub development or point-to-point services, Saudi Arabia is pursuing a hybrid model that aims to serve both domestic and international markets efficiently. This strategy acknowledges the unique geographical and demographic characteristics of the Arabian Peninsula, where air transport serves as a crucial link between dispersed population centres.
While the path ahead involves significant challenges, the kingdom’s comprehensive approach – combining strategic planning, substantial resources, and environmental consciousness – offers a potential model for sustainable aviation development.
As Saudi Arabia proceeds with its aviation plans, the industry will closely observe how effectively it balances expansion with environmental responsibility.
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