New Report: The Mandate Decade
SAF regulation, project finance, and the future of hydrogen and e-fuels in European aviation.
Produced for the upcoming Sustainable Aviation Futures Congress in Amsterdam (6 - 8 May 2025), our new report offers a timely deep dive into the next decade of aviation decarbonisation. As regulations tighten and climate impacts become more visible, the question is no longer if the transition will happen – but how fast, and at what cost. Download the free report here.
Aviation’s carbon budget is running out.
Climate disruption is no longer theoretical. Airports across the globe are already feeling the effects – extreme heat, runway damage, flooding. Research shows that over 360 airports could be at risk by 2100, with global air traffic projected to double by 2043.
At the same time, emissions from today’s fleet are locking in carbon-intensive operations well beyond 2050. With only 18.4 billion tonnes of CO2 left in aviation’s carbon budget to hit net zero, we could exhaust that allowance by 2032.
Enter the Mandate Decade.
Europe is at the heart of this transition. With new regulations such as the EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation and the UK’s SAF mandate, a new era of compulsory carbon reductions is underway. But while mandates are multiplying, fuel supply remains limited, and green hydrogen – the backbone of e-fuels – is still costly and infrastructure-poor.
Our new report examines:
Mandates and policy fragmentation: A detailed look at UK and EU SAF rules, including sub-mandates for e-fuels and HEFA caps – and their impact on airlines.
The finance gap: Why investors are still hesitant despite regulatory momentum, and what’s needed to unlock large-scale project funding.
Production bottlenecks: The growing gap between SAF demand and supply, and how innovators and governments are working to close it.
Hydrogen and e-fuels outlook: Why hydrogen is critical yet underdeveloped, and how delays in aircraft development (like Airbus’ hydrogen A320) shape future choices.
Why this matters?
As Europe sets the pace for global SAF policy, the next few years will define whether the industry can deliver – not just promises, but actual fuel at scale. With climate pressures mounting and compliance costs rising, stakeholders need clarity, context, and credible pathways forward.
For more insights into SAF, hydrogen, electric, and hybrid technologies, explore our previous reports and check out the Sustainability in the Air podcast.