Why aviation's net-zero timeline is shorter than we think: A reality check for Farnborough
A new report by ICCT says every new aircraft must be net-zero by the mid-2030s
As the aviation industry gathers for the Farnborough Air Show this week, a new report from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) has delivered a sustainability reality check:
By the mid-2030s, every new aircraft delivered must have net-zero emissions baked into its entire operational lifespan.
This new report critically assesses the industry's current trajectory and challenges stakeholders to move beyond incremental improvements and embrace transformative change.
Key statistics and findings
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Carbon budget: The ICCT establishes a "net-zero" aviation carbon budget of 18.4 billion tonnes (Gt) for 2022-2050, derived from an average of four previously published ICCT decarbonisation pathways.
Current fleet emissions: The existing global fleet (as of 2023) is projected to emit approximately 9 Gt of CO2 before retirement.
The aircraft in our skies right now will consume nearly half of aviation's entire net-zero carbon budget.
Future projections: Even with optimistic forecasts for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) adoption and efficiency improvements, the remaining budget could be exhausted as early as 2037.
Zero-emission aircraft demand: By 2042, at least 10,000 new aircraft will need to utilise alternative energy sources such as hydrogen, electricity, or 100% SAF.
Emissions reduction potential: In the most optimistic scenario (Optimistic SAF + Fuel Efficiency), cumulative CO2 from new conventional aircraft delivered between 2024 and 2042 could be reduced by more than 50% – from 29 Gt to 14 Gt.
The SAF production challenge
Unfortunately, even meeting the 2030 SAF production targets presents a formidable challenge.
At the Sustainable Aviation Futures Congress in Amsterdam, Mission Possible Partnership’s Dick Benschop, in a panel chaired by Shashank Nigam, emphasised the necessity for a tenfold increase in SAF plants. Benschop stated that the industry needs to expand from the current 30-odd active facilities to approximately 300 to meet 2030 targets.
While over 130 SAF plants are currently in the planning stages, few have actually broken ground. Clara Bowman of e-fuels company HIF Global aptly summarised the urgency in a May interview with Sustainability in the Air: "In infrastructure terms, 2030 is actually yesterday."
The critical role of carbon dioxide removal (CDR)
Given these challenges, the industry may need to rely heavily on CDR technologies to achieve its net-zero goals. The ICCT has identified several significant issues in this area:
In the Baseline Scenario, approximately 22 Gt of CO2 would need to be removed through direct air capture (DAC) for aircraft delivered through 2042.
Even in the Optimistic SAF + Fuel Efficiency Scenario, about 5 Gt of CO2 removal would still be required.
These volumes are roughly 2,500 times the global capacity of DAC facilities currently under construction or in advanced stages of development for use across all industries in 2030.
The International Energy Agency projects that global CO2 capture by DAC will reach only about 2.5 million tonnes in 2030, highlighting the massive scale-up required.
DAC technologies face considerable challenges, particularly in terms of cost and energy consumption. The current cost stands at approximately 500 EUR+ per carbon tonne. Moreover, the energy requirements for DAC are incredibly high.
In our recently released State of Sustainable Aviation Technologies 2024 report, we’ve illustrated this as follows: Capturing one tonne of CO2 requires approximately 2000 kWh of energy, equivalent to the electricity an average US household consumes over two months.
To put this into perspective, offsetting the emissions from a single long-haul flight with 300 passengers would require about 600,000 kWh of energy – equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of roughly 56 US households (a long-haul flight emits roughly 1 tonne of CO2 per passenger. 300 tonnes of CO2 x 2000 kWh per tonne = 600,000 kWh)
This enormous energy demand underscores the significant challenges in implementing DAC technology on a scale large enough to impact aviation's carbon footprint meaningfully.
ICCT’s recommendations
In response to these challenges, the ICCT report proposes several key recommendations:
Accelerate efforts to develop narrow-body zero-emission planes (ZEPs), with a particular focus on hydrogen-powered aircraft that emit no CO2 during operation.
Starting in 2030, ensure that all new aircraft can burn 100% SAF, not just SAF blends.
Establish stringent Scope 3 emission targets requiring that aircraft delivered will emit less CO2 over their lifetimes.
As industry leaders, policymakers, and innovators converge at Farnborough, they must confront these findings and use them as a catalyst for accelerated action. Otherwise, if the industry fails to act swiftly and decisively, policymakers – driven by growing public concern – will likely step in to enforce more stringent regulations.